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Old 04-17-2019, 11:04 PM   #1
Gold Medal
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Chances of a pace meltdown ? Who benefits most ?

I understand the most conventional way to get a pace meltdown is with multiple need the lead types and this field doesnt even have one, but it seems like half the horses do like to be up close which could lead to alot of horses working hard upfront and coming up empty.

If that happens who benefits most ? I could see Haikal swooping the field under that scenario. He didnt run great in the Wood but he already had his points and you have to wonder if he fired his best shot .....
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:16 PM   #2
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The Derby usually has one or two closers hit the super. There are not many true closers in this renewal however. Brisnet has Code of Honor, Haikal, WWW, and Country House as S types. They have Tacitus as a P however he's kind of a hybrid type who I'd think would have first crack at a meltdown.
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:19 PM   #3
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Code Of Honor

Won't have his chances hurt with a pace meltdown.
Doubt it's going to happen, though.
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:42 PM   #4
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Won't have his chances hurt with a pace meltdown.
Doubt it's going to happen, though.
I think its a given that Maximum Security will head to the front to at least see if they let him get a easy lead. I have to think Omaha Beach will go with him to prevent just that. War of Will certainly will want to be right up there and BodeExpress might just quarterhouse it out of there. I am sure there are many more but thats just off the top of my head.
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Old 04-18-2019, 12:43 AM   #5
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and BodeExpress might just quarterhouse it out of there.
he can quarterhorse it right to los alamitos and the million dollar futurity and finish last in there as well
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Old 04-18-2019, 07:16 AM   #6
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he can quarterhorse it right to los alamitos and the million dollar futurity and finish last in there as well
LOL !!! I never said he had a chance but you know with his primary asset being his speed and this race being short on speed that the connections are going to figure that gunning it out of the gate is their only shot.
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Old 04-18-2019, 08:59 AM   #7
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If we get a strong pace, I think Code of Honor could run better than expected.

He was very impressive in his 2 starts at 2. In his 2nd race he had a terrible trip and was probably best.

He came back short in his 1st start at 3, moved forward with a perfect trip in the FOY, and then probably ran deceptively well in the Florida Derby trying to close on a speed favoring track against a very slow pace. He might be sitting on a peak race. With a good setup maybe he's good enough.

Tacitus, Game Winner, Improbable, Win Win Win and others could all sit far enough off it and still finish.
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Old 04-18-2019, 09:09 AM   #8
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If we get a strong pace, I think Code of Honor could run better than expected.

He was very impressive in his 2 starts at 2. In his 2nd race he had a terrible trip and was probably best.

He came back short in his 1st start at 3, moved forward with a perfect trip in the FOY, and then probably ran deceptively well in the Florida Derby trying to close on a speed favoring track against a very slow pace. He might be sitting on a peak race. With a good setup maybe he's good enough.

Tacitus, Game Winner, Improbable, Win Win Win and others could all sit far enough off it and still finish.
I agree... maybe... one trait of exotics bombers always seems to be horses who had some success at 2 and maybe were a little forgotten. But something about this horse just screams 1 turn to me...
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Old 04-18-2019, 10:42 AM   #9
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I agree... maybe... one trait of exotics bombers always seems to be horses who had some success at 2 and maybe were a little forgotten. But something about this horse just screams 1 turn to me...
He's got a deep dosage profile to suggest distance isn't a problem however this doesn't always translate to performance. He got up in the FOY after the meltdown but was slow in that final half panel. He was fast coming home in the FL Derby but so was half the field after the pedestrian 1/2 mile fraction. And, he lost almost four lengths to the winner in the final 3/8th.

He's got a weird alternating pattern on Equibase: 92, 102, 92, 111, 92. I guess if he continues following that pattern then he might be more game here. I just don't see the pace setting it up well for him but have to continuously remind myself there's usually one or two closing types that hit the Derby super. This guy has some class and a top pilot. I wouldn't be shocked if he filled the bottom of deeper gimmicks. He won't be 85-1 like Instilled Regard but would certainly add some pizazz.
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