Top Ten Derby Contenders

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Omaha Beach And "Bang" he's a good horse, but not really the best pace and speed figure combination to get a mile and a quarter.

He's not a win candidate for me. I love the trainer and the horse, but not for this.

[MNslappy]

1-Omaha Beach
2-Maximum Security
3-Tacitus
4-Improbable
5-Tax
6-Game Winner
7-Vekoma
8-Code of Honor
9-Country House
10-By My Standards

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

yea,


this is one i screen capped from his Nashua last november

he 'swims' with his left whenever he's on his right lead. This photo is a little more emphasized because he has just changed leads, and he has an explosive lead-change.

Was against in the Foy, but his numbers weren't terrible that day. Bluegrass was kind of on a silver platter for his taking, and he even got a good trip.

All that in mind, he's still somewhat interesting as a mostly-dismissed horse whose numbers are solid.

Fast is fast. It's not a beauty contest. But, will he respond well, and run 'his race', while under the most pressure and distance he's yet to face?

It’s more than not pretty. It’s downright scary. This horse will not stay sound and I just hope when it goes bad it’s caught early.

[Gold Medal]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

1. Roadster
2. Omaha Beach
3. Win Win Win
4. Game Winner
5. Improbable
6. Vekoma
7. Maximum Security


and 2 pace dependent clunkers


8. Haikal
9. Tax


Allan

I think you need to move WinWinWin to the list with Haikal and Tax. Look up pace dependant clunker in the dictionary and you will see a pic of WinWinWin.

[MichaelKnowRacing]

-1. Omaha Beach (3-1) - Beat Game Winner and Improbable in his last two starts; looks the part of a Derby winner but there's still time for others to impress.

-2. Roadster (4-1) - Back in the fall was the best horse in Bob Baffert's barn but it's taken him some time; might end up being my pick.

-3. Game Winner (8-1) - Was better in the Santa Anita Derby than he was in the Rebel Stakes, but I still don't think Baffert had him all the way cranked up.

-4. War of Will (18-1) - Moved way up when trainer Mark Casse said he's back to himself and looks like he'll be ready for the Derby; stumbled a bit and lost his footing in the Louisiana Derby and never made it back into the race.

-5. Improbable (8-1) - Another Bob Baffert-trained horse that didn't win in the Rebel Stakes, but looked better in the Arkansas Derby and finished second.

-6. Haikal (30-1) - Won the Gotham Stakes, but was perfect trip; needed more distance in the Wood Memorial.

-7. Cutting Humor (30-1) - Had a great trip and won the Sunland Park Derby; will be tougher in the Derby.

-8. Tacitus (10-1) - Trainer Bill Mott doesn't come to the Derby with just any horse; Wood Memorial winner is super talented.

-9. Plus Que Parfait (40-1) - Wouldn't have had him in the top 40 before he won the UAE Derby; but he looked so improved and he's going to spend the most time of any horse training at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby.

-10. Spinoff (25-1) - The Todd Pletcher trainee got the jump on By My Standards in the Louisiana Derby, but just couldn't hold him off. Will improve big time.

[boys at tosconova]

Omaha Beach (3-1)

Roadster (4-1) -

Game Winner (8-1) -


Improbable (8-1) -


Tacitus (10-1) -


sadly this is the only starting point you need. one of these has to finish 1st or 2nd imo

any price horse has to be played with these

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by MichaelKnowRacing

-9. Plus Que Parfait (40-1) - Wouldn't have had him in the top 40 before he won the UAE Derby; but he looked so improved and he's going to spend the most time of any horse training at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby.

so you think he and Gray Magician improved drastically? They werent that far apart..

[zico20]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

Omaha Beach (3-1)

Roadster (4-1) -

Game Winner (8-1) -


Improbable (8-1) -


Tacitus (10-1) -


sadly this is the only starting point you need. one of these has to finish 1st or 2nd imo

any price horse has to be played with these

Agree with you 100%

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

Omaha Beach (3-1)

Roadster (4-1) -

Game Winner (8-1) -


Improbable (8-1) -


Tacitus (10-1) -


sadly this is the only starting point you need. one of these has to finish 1st or 2nd imo

any price horse has to be played with these

You’re tossing Maximum Security from the Win spot? I don’t know if I can go there just yet.

[1GCFAN]

Omaha Beach checks all the boxes. Can track speed, finish and handle any surface. Started four times at two and three times at three. More experience with racing and bigger fields than most of the competition. Likely odds 4-1


Game Winner has been unable to close the deal in two tries at three. Battled OB to the wire then came back in three weeks and was ridden hard in order to take down the speed and give Roadster a chance for points. He has a solid foundation and third off the layoff should be his best effort to date. I think he gets on the ticket. Likely odds 8-1


Tacitus this son of Tapit is not the fraud that Hofberg turned out to be. Only four lifetime starts but won two derby preps . In the Tampa Derby he got a dream trip vs a suspect field. The competition was a bit better in the Wood and he got up after trailing by 8 on the backside. Impeccably bred and should run all day. Likely odds 8-1


Improbable had an eventful gate experience at Oaklawn and still fired a good race. Still looks around a lot in his works and in the stretch of his races. He is very honest and will give his all at CD a track he has won on. Likely odds 10-1


Maximum Security don't know how good he is as he has never been challenged for the lead despite setting pedestrian fractions in all his races. Certainly in uncharted waters with his breeding. New Years Day has not been much of a sire but his son Bourbon Resolution did win Saturday's Grade 3, Ben Ali Handicap at 1 1/8. His dam never produced much so was sold off at a big loss to foreign interests. If they let him go in 48 or 47 in change he will be tough to catch as he can hit overdrive and finish. Likely odds 6-1

A possibility is War of Will at a huge price. Training up a storm and has overcome his injury in the LA Derby, This son of War Front could surprise. Others - Roadster at a short price, and Long Range Toddy who needs a rail trip to be competitive. Tax is bred to run all day and with the trip could be bomb for to fill out the super.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by MichaelKnowRacing

-9. Plus Que Parfait (40-1) - Wouldn't have had him in the top 40 before he won the UAE Derby; but he looked so improved and he's going to spend the most time of any horse training at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby

I have not tossed him yet at all.
On the grounds at CDX early as of april 16th or so are
Omaha Beach
Tacitus
Country House
By My Standards
Improbable
Long Range Toddy
Plus Que Parfait
Anothertwistafate (waiting)

[deelo]

Derby list isn't finalized bc the figures i like to use aren't out yet but based on prep season performances

1. Omaha Beach - the company he's kept at bay makes him a deserving favorite

2. Roadster - think he's progressed nicely and evenly through prep season to where he can be sitting on a big performance

3. Anothertwistafate - If you look at the fastest final 3f times of each contenders last prep race stretch, the Florida Derby produced 4 of the top 5 due to a fast track with a slow pace. The lone invader in that list is Anothertwistafate and he did it on a long Keeneland straight away. He'll get an extra 60 ft here.

4. Maximum Security - He is being downgraded as a non-contender by a lot of people because there's just got to be a reason waiting to rear it's ugly head as to why he was a 16k claimer at one time. He's being downgraded for going gate-to-wire on a fast Fla Derby track with moderate fractions, but depending on post draw, this Derby looks different than past years to me. I see a lot of good contenders who don't want or need the lead and it's very possible he may be let to fire off to an easy lead in the Derby at moderate fractions enabling him to hold onto a top 4 spot. He still might be too low odds for me b/c there's a lot of believers in him for the wrong reasons but we'll see.

Game Winner & Improbable - They fired fresh and were 2 yo champs. They were top 2 favorites together going into prep season and have been defeated. I don't see them sitting on a big race. People also sat around waiting for 2 yo champ & early Derby fav Bolt d'Oro to wake up but never did. I think this is the same situation with both and even if I'm wrong I'm good for chasing value in a great betting Derby by leaving out the Bafferts.

I didn't like Tacitus much, but he looked really visually impressive last out. The Wood Memorial slump of the last decade is what makes him a tough one to back.

Vekoma having talent despite a really weird leg-out-sidewise way of running is pretty interesting. Could be potentially dangerous just cuz he's a weirdo.

[deelo]

Originally Posted by clicknow

3 weeks out I am only looking for the Win spot, then will filter in the exotics later. For the Win spot only right now I have:

War of Will
Tax
Improbable
Vekoma
Win Win Win
Code of Honor
Haikal
Game Winner (totally dependent on track condition)

Haven't looked at Grey Magician or Master Fencer yet

So much of my ticket depends on track condition (wet or dry).

You'll be very wealthy on Derby Day if any combo of your 8 make up the tri.

I'll save you time on Master Fencer and set the over/unders on his finish at 18 1/2 th place

[deelo]

Originally Posted by 1GCFAN

Omaha Beach checks all the boxes. Can track speed, finish and handle any surface. Started four times at two and three times at three. More experience with racing and bigger fields than most of the competition. Likely odds 4-1


Game Winner has been unable to close the deal in two tries at three. Battled OB to the wire then came back in three weeks and was ridden hard in order to take down the speed and give Roadster a chance for points. He has a solid foundation and third off the layoff should be his best effort to date. I think he gets on the ticket. Likely odds 8-1


Tacitus this son of Tapit is not the fraud that Hofberg turned out to be. Only four lifetime starts but won two derby preps . In the Tampa Derby he got a dream trip vs a suspect field. The competition was a bit better in the Wood and he got up after trailing by 8 on the backside. Impeccably bred and should run all day. Likely odds 8-1


Improbable had an eventful gate experience at Oaklawn and still fired a good race. Still looks around a lot in his works and in the stretch of his races. He is very honest and will give his all at CD a track he has won on. Likely odds 10-1


Maximum Security don't know how good he is as he has never been challenged for the lead despite setting pedestrian fractions in all his races. Certainly in uncharted waters with his breeding. New Years Day has not been much of a sire but his son Bourbon Resolution did win Saturday's Grade 3, Ben Ali Handicap at 1 1/8. His dam never produced much so was sold off at a big loss to foreign interests. If they let him go in 48 or 47 in change he will be tough to catch as he can hit overdrive and finish. Likely odds 6-1

A possibility is War of Will at a huge price. Training up a storm and has overcome his injury in the LA Derby, This son of War Front could surprise. Others - Roadster at a short price, and Long Range Toddy who needs a rail trip to be competitive. Tax is bred to run all day and with the trip could be bomb for to fill out the super.

This is the most solid list I believe. I accept that my own list is going to have some flaws and prefer yours over mine but I play a weird game. Best of luck to you.

I also wonder what your thoughts are on Country House. He's off both our lists but he gives me this Gunnevera type vibe where I never pick him but then he always shows up like 'here for 3rd again' and never stops.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by deelo

Derby list isn't finalized bc the figures i like to use aren't out yet but based on prep season performances

1. Omaha Beach - the company he's kept at bay makes him a deserving favorite

2. Roadster - think he's progressed nicely and evenly through prep season to where he can be sitting on a big performance

3. Anothertwistafate - If you look at the fastest final 3f times of each contenders last prep race stretch, the Florida Derby produced 4 of the top 5 due to a fast track with a slow pace. The lone invader in that list is Anothertwistafate and he did it on a long Keeneland straight away. He'll get an extra 60 ft here.

4. Maximum Security - He is being downgraded as a non-contender by a lot of people because there's just got to be a reason waiting to rear it's ugly head as to why he was a 16k claimer at one time. He's being downgraded for going gate-to-wire on a fast Fla Derby track with moderate fractions, but depending on post draw, this Derby looks different than past years to me. I see a lot of good contenders who don't want or need the lead and it's very possible he may be let to fire off to an easy lead in the Derby at moderate fractions enabling him to hold onto a top 4 spot. He still might be too low odds for me b/c there's a lot of believers in him for the wrong reasons but we'll see.

Game Winner & Improbable - They fired fresh and were 2 yo champs. They were top 2 favorites together going into prep season and have been defeated. I don't see them sitting on a big race. People also sat around waiting for 2 yo champ & early Derby fav Bolt d'Oro to wake up but never did. I think this is the same situation with both and even if I'm wrong I'm good for chasing value in a great betting Derby by leaving out the Bafferts.

I didn't like Tacitus much, but he looked really visually impressive last out. The Wood Memorial slump of the last decade is what makes him a tough one to back.

Vekoma having talent despite a really weird leg-out-sidewise way of running is pretty interesting. Could be potentially dangerous just cuz he's a weirdo.

There is a world of difference between Bolts trainer and Baffert. Baffert will have all three of them ready to run huge third off the layoff. Maximum Security is downgraded because he got away with pedestrian fractions. It won't happen in the Derby. Do you really think Baffert is going to have all three of his way off the pace in slow fractions and none have a chance. NO! I actually expect Roadster to be very close to the pace if no one goes out with Maximum Security.