Belmont Opening RUMORED to be Memorial Day Weekend

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I'm just trying to still wrap my head around how the following can NEVER come into play during the situation we are in right now...especially as it continues to last longer than it ever was intended to (FLATTEN THE CURVE...SAVE HEALTHCARE):

https://www.justice.gov/crt/deprivat...nder-color-law

It's a course in law school, and a long story about constitutional history. But ultimately, the legal system decided it was wise not to subject business regulations to constitutional scrutiny

But I think you will like the result in the Wisconsin case, though it won't be based on federal law.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You could say that, of course. Then again, the flu has a vaccine...to mitigate it...maybe that's why we don't lock down, despite the 600,000 or so deaths worldwide during a particularly bad flu season...

But I digress...again....

I think you missed my point.

You can't compare them exactly because we don't have a vaccine and good treatments for this virus so any more people would get infected and die from this than flu if we went about business as usual.

The true death rate is not known yet, but the best and more unbiased sources I can find seem to indicate between .5% and 1%. That's still a large number. It also appears the Ro for this virus is also higher than flu. So it spreads a lot quicker.

So given these realities, you handle them differently.

You can't allow hospitals to get overwhelmed and potentially a million or more people to die while other life saving procedures and treatments are on hold because the hospitals are swamped, causing others to die too.

You try to flatten it and slowly work towards at least partial herd immunity while we learn more about treatments and move towards a vaccine.

The debate is about finding the balance between protecting people from the virus (especially at risk populations) and not absolutely demolishing the economy. I'm not smart enough to know the best way to do it. Admittedly I'm talking out of my ass on intuition and common sense, but imo the word flu is irrelevant to the conversation because it's s different thing.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Why should we accept risk at a grocery store? I certainly wouldn't act any different there than I would at a racetrack.

We are all constantly making risk reward choices. Not all of us are going to make the same choices because we have different priorities an values.

I've gone into a Verizon phone shop because my phone broke, a dollar store for soap and extra masks, and a 7 Eleven for milk and eggs (all masked and gloved while carrying a Lysol wipe ), but there's no way I'd go to a crowded racetrack. I took a minuscule chance for some items I needed, but I wouldn't take the same chance to gamble on horses.

The tricky part is that some people may be willing to take chances I think are totally absurd (like driving at 120mph). The reason we stop them (and even as person with libertarian tendencies I accept that) is because their reckless behavior can impact and kill others. Drawing those lines is sometimes the tough part, but there are lines in this situation also.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think you missed my point.

You can't compare them exactly because we don't have a vaccine and good treatments for this virus so any more people would get infected and die from this than flu if we went about business as usual.

The true death rate is not known yet, but the best and more unbiased sources I can find seem to indicate between .5% and 1%. That's still a large number. It also appears the Ro for this virus is also higher than flu. So it spreads a lot quicker.

So given these realities, you handle them differently.

You can't allow hospitals to get overwhelmed and potentially a million or more people to die while other life saving procedures and treatments are on hold because the hospitals are swamped, causing others to die too.

You try to flatten it and slowly work towards at least partial herd immunity while we learn more about treatments and move towards a vaccine.

The debate is about finding the balance between protecting people from the virus (especially at risk populations) and not absolutely demolishing the economy. I'm not smart enough to know the best way to do it. Admittedly I'm talking out of my ass on intuition and common sense, but imo the word flu is irrelevant to the conversation because it's s different thing.

I never said, not once, that COVID-19 should be treated "business as usual" or "same as flu."

I wish people would stop writing this to me. When they do, it's clear they have no interest in actually reading what I write...so why bother replying?

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I never said, not once, that COVID-19 should be treated "business as usual" or "same as flu."

I wish people would stop writing this to me. When they do, it's clear they have no interest in actually reading what I write...so why bother replying?

Haven't read anything in the thread because this is exhausting, but I'm guessing you "tried" to compare covid to the flu, again, in an attempt to minimize covid's severity, and someone called you out on it...again. Shocked...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I never said, not once, that COVID-19 should be treated "business as usual" or "same as flu."

I wish people would stop writing this to me. When they do, it's clear they have no interest in actually reading what I write...so why bother replying?

I mostly understand where you are coming from.

My suggestion is don't ever mention the word flu or point to the number deaths from flu and the problem would go away. Any time the word flu is used people are going to immediately point out why any data or comparison to flu is irrelevant even if you already know that and are trying to make a different point.

Just say the true death rate may be .5% or .6% and most of those are among very old people and people with severe comorbidities. That argues for greater freedom of the masses and a focus on protecting the at risk people so we slowly move towards partial herd immunity without destroying the economy. That seems like a reasonable position for someone to take whether I or others agree or not.

People are afraid because we don't fully understand how at risk we are but we know it spreads very quickly and easily. There's also the matter of reinfection risk or recovering but having damaged lungs and a damaged heart.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Haven't read anything in the thread because this is exhausting, but I'm guessing you "tried" to compare covid to the flu, again, in an attempt to minimize covid's severity, and someone called you out on it...again. Shocked...

It's called perspective.

People are scared out of their minds because of the death numbers reported 24/7 on COVID-19.

You wouldn't believe the number of people I have encountered (friends, family, etc) over the last few months who were pretty much unaware that the flu is still capable of killing upwards of 600,000 people worldwide in any given year.

So yeah, some perspective is absolutely needed.

Sometimes, dispassionate, rational thought is required when dealing with a highly emotional situation that is clearly capable of not only killing people, but also completely nuking the world economy, which will certainly end up killing a whole bunch more.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

We are all constantly making risk reward choices. Not all of us are going to make the same choices because we have different priorities an values.

I've gone into a Verizon phone shop because my phone broke, a dollar store for soap and extra masks, and a 7 Eleven for milk and eggs (all masked and gloved while carrying a Lysol wipe ), but there's no way I'd go to a crowded racetrack. I took a minuscule chance for some items I needed, but I wouldn't take the same chance to gamble on horses.

The tricky part is that some people may be willing to take chances I think are totally absurd (like driving at 120mph). The reason we stop them (and even as person with libertarian tendencies I accept that) is because their reckless behavior can impact and kill others. Drawing those lines is sometimes the tough part, but there are lines in this situation also.

The problem is most people are so uninformed that they really can't evaluate what the risks are or who exactly is at risk.

Reckless behavior can kill people. Is a healthy person going to a racetrack reckless behavior?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I never said, not once, that COVID-19 should be treated "business as usual" or "same as flu."

I wish people would stop writing this to me. When they do, it's clear they have no interest in actually reading what I write...so why bother replying?

But you have repeatedly stated that "the flu is laughing at COVID-19"...which implies that, according to you, this virus is even LESS than the flu. I know that you say this when comparing the death rates of the two viruses...but you can still make your point without outright mocking this new pandemic. And you were mocking this new virus in such a manner even as you yourself had barricaded yourself at home...something which you, no-doubt, had never done in fear of the flu.

We locked ourselves up at home, PA...and you were one of us. And now we walk around in masks...while wearing gloves and carrying lysol baby-wipes. Did we ever do that because of the flu? If not...then, how can the flu be "laughing"?

[jimk849]

I clicked on here because it said Belmont rumored to open Memorial Day Weekend. Any news out there on this possibility?

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by jimk849

I clicked on here because it said Belmont rumored to open Memorial Day Weekend. Any news out there on this possibility?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=157832

[Racetrack Playa]

Originally Posted by jimk849

I clicked on here because it said Belmont rumored to open Memorial Day Weekend. Any news out there on this possibility?

press release /political pitch from theNYRA

https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/st...d-summer-meets

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

But you have repeatedly stated that "the flu is laughing at COVID-19"...which implies that, according to you, this virus is even LESS than the flu. I know that you say this when comparing the death rates of the two viruses...but you can still make your point without outright mocking this new pandemic. And you were mocking this new virus in such a manner even as you yourself had barricaded yourself at home...something which you, no-doubt, had never done in fear of the flu.

We locked ourselves up at home, PA...and you were one of us. And now we walk around in masks...while wearing gloves and carrying lysol baby-wipes. Did we ever do that because of the flu? If not...then, how can the flu be "laughing"?

I don't create the death count for COVID-19 worldwide.

And dead people are dead people. It doesn't matter what the virus is called that killed them...or does it?

What would you like me to do? Cower in fear over a virus that, as of yet, hasn't shown the same killing capacity as the regular flu?

Even if we extrapolate the worldwide current death count for COVID-19 over a similar length flu season...or even longer...it doesn't catch up.

Some say this is due to social distancing, masks and lockdowns. Maybe.

But then again, the flu has a vaccine which mitigates the hell out of it...more or less than current mitigation efforts against COVID? Who's to say...much is still not known.

I'm a stats guy. I like to look at stats to figure out my conclusions. I don't work on emotion.

As for me being in my house...we're all in our houses...I'm forced to be here...where else am I going to be?

You can only spend so much time at 7-11 or Costco.

I know your sister is battling COVID and is or was on a ventilator, as you have posted. Please don't take the above personally. I have nothing but positive thoughts for her and hope she recovers, and I know you must be going through hell.

If a loved one of mine came down with COVID and had serious symptoms, my above views would not change. My views will change when the stats show me they should.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Even if we extrapolate the worldwide current death count for COVID-19 over a similar length flu season...or even longer...it doesn't catch up.

Some say this is due to social distancing, masks and lockdowns. Maybe.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

Both COVID-19 and the flu are respiratory illnesses. But COVID-19 is not the flu. Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu.

If we didn't take the steps we did there would be many more sick people and more dead people than we get from the flu. How could there not be given the above quote? I don't think anyone would debate that quote, would they?

When do we stop? I don't know. We've started here. I've been going out some, still mostly avoiding people. But then again we have the 8th least cases per capita in the US so it is a risk I'm willing to take.

[jimk849]

Thank you for quick response, nice list fingers crossed for all the tracks.