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09-12-2013, 06:36 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 108
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Is Wise Dan The Bridge Jump of the Year?
Wise Dan puts his 8 race winning streak on the line in a short field of six. If I was ever ready to put $1,000 show bet down, it would be in this spot.
Does anyone think he can get beat?
Woodbine Mile Race Review
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09-12-2013, 06:55 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 971
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Isn't the bridge-jumping show question whether he could finish out of the top three?
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09-12-2013, 07:03 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 108
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I am answering NO!
I was wondering if anyone thought he can miss the board, aside from the ole anything can happen in racing.
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09-12-2013, 07:11 PM
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#4
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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If i were to come up with 3 reasons that he is NOT a great show bet they would be:
1) He's carried a LOT of weight recently...so, who knows how that can affect him.
2) Seems to only race on "Soft" courses.
The biggest negative:
When he does NOT win, he seems to be off the board quite a lot.
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09-12-2013, 07:38 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 971
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What is the minimum return on a $2 show bet at WO? I don't play it often and don't know whether it is 2.10 or 2.20 - help me out.
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09-12-2013, 07:38 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Race Promoter
Wise Dan puts his 8 race winning streak on the line in a short field of six. If I was ever ready to put $1,000 show bet down, it would be in this spot.
Does anyone think he can get beat?
Woodbine Mile Race Review |
so he will likely pay 2.10 to show and you make how much? 1,000 bet you would make 50! that seems worth it.  bridge jumpers tend to put 100,000+
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09-12-2013, 08:08 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 1,019
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nat1223
so he will likely pay 2.10 to show and you make how much? 1,000 bet you would make 50! that seems worth it. bridge jumpers tend to put 100,000+ |
But betting $100,000 to make 5,000 is worth it you say. Same exact thing. Actually 5 bucks to the bettor with 50 likely means more than the other scenario.
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09-12-2013, 08:11 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by speed
But betting $100,000 to make 5,000 is worth it you say. Same exact thing. Actually 5 bucks to the bettor with 50 likely means more than the other scenario.
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ok speed
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09-12-2013, 08:31 PM
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#9
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by speed
But betting $100,000 to make 5,000 is worth it you say. Same exact thing. Actually 5 bucks to the bettor with 50 likely means more than the other scenario.
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So does the $50. That why you shouldn't bet $50. There is a whole branch of math that covers cases like this . It is call Utility Theory. I don't know much about it except to know it exists. A math grad student I used to play poker with wrote his doctoral thesis on it. He let me read it, but it was Greek to me.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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09-12-2013, 08:50 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 1,019
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by nat1223
ok speed
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Best of Luck Nat.
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09-12-2013, 09:57 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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I wouldn't bet to show on a horse like this, even if it was Secretariat. Anything can happen. These aren't robots. Fort Larned dumped his jockey at Gulfstream earlier in the year. What if Wise Dan dumps his jockey for whatever reason?
I'd bet one of the other horses in the race to show and play for the unforeseen to happen.
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09-12-2013, 11:47 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,178
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Every living creature loses it at some point of life. Sometimes its a gradual thing, sometime its in the blink of an eye. Whens thats going to happen to Wise Dan, I dont know but it will happen.
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09-13-2013, 12:06 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,987
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
If i were to come up with 3 reasons that he is NOT a great show bet they would be:
1) He's carried a LOT of weight recently...so, who knows how that can affect him.
2) Seems to only race on "Soft" courses.
The biggest negative:
When he does NOT win, he seems to be off the board quite a lot.
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He has won 5 of 6 on firm ground, with one 4th place finish in his 1st Grade 1 on turf and that was the only time out of 10 tries on turf that he has finished off the board. He is 1 for 1 on good turf and 3 for 3 on yielding turf. Pretty hard to see any negativity at all in those facts.
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09-13-2013, 12:13 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,333
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I think he can get beat at some point . As others have pointed out though ,
tough to bet him out of the money .
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09-13-2013, 06:10 AM
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#15
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Having done thread about betting against bridgejumpers a couple summers ago, I decide there is no way to tell when one would one run out. It also appeared that the better they looked on paper, the better the payouts when they failed.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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