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09-13-2013, 06:21 AM
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#16
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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If your goal is to make a minute ROI on a single race, then go for it. IMO, this kind of reasoning is one example of why there are 98+% losers in this game.
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09-13-2013, 09:45 AM
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#17
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,090
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
So does the $50. That why you shouldn't bet $50. There is a whole branch of math that covers cases like this . It is call Utility Theory. I don't know much about it except to know it exists. A math grad student I used to play poker with wrote his doctoral thesis on it. He let me read it, but it was Greek to me.
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It goes like this. If you have 100,000 you are risking it to make 5,000? Doesn't matter the amount.......What? You are going risk 50 to make 5? No matter who the horse is, theres ALWAYS the chance you will lose. Before you bother learning the math the first thing a GOOD gambler realizes is they may LOSE the bet. If you never learn that you are destined to lose your entire life.
This is why if you have 100,000 and you want to make 5,000....its way better to wait for a 5-1 you like and put 1%(1,000) of your bankroll on that.....UTILITY (getting value). Of course, most bridge jumpers have a huge bankroll so the 100,000 is not going to kill them.....they call them bridge jumpers but most are NOT. They are whales. Basically utilization is figuring out the point where the risk is worth the return, win or lose. I don't have 100,000 to lose on a horse race and most don't. People that understand this theory are betting a LOW proportion of their bankroll for the maximum return. Simple, bang for the buck theory. A good gambler does this naturally without even realizing the math or economic theory.
Last edited by burnsy; 09-13-2013 at 09:46 AM.
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09-13-2013, 10:37 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 90
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the point being don't bridge jump! whoever wants to bet that amount of money to make nothing in return then GL
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09-13-2013, 11:20 AM
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#19
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
It goes like this. If you have 100,000 you are risking it to make 5,000? Doesn't matter the amount.......What? You are going risk 50 to make 5? No matter who the horse is, theres ALWAYS the chance you will lose. Before you bother learning the math the first thing a GOOD gambler realizes is they may LOSE the bet. If you never learn that you are destined to lose your entire life.
This is why if you have 100,000 and you want to make 5,000....its way better to wait for a 5-1 you like and put 1%(1,000) of your bankroll on that.....UTILITY (getting value). Of course, most bridge jumpers have a huge bankroll so the 100,000 is not going to kill them.....they call them bridge jumpers but most are NOT. They are whales. Basically utilization is figuring out the point where the risk is worth the return, win or lose. I don't have 100,000 to lose on a horse race and most don't. People that understand this theory are betting a LOW proportion of their bankroll for the maximum return. Simple, bang for the buck theory. A good gambler does this naturally without even realizing the math or economic theory.
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I believe you have a mistaken idea of what Utility Theory is about.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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09-13-2013, 12:29 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Narragansett Rhode Island
Posts: 8
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Take the 2nd and 3rd horses that you feel have the best chance to be in the money,and bet them to show at $100 each..1/5th of the 1k wager with the potential for a real nice hit,or a small profit..perhaps a couple of Heinekens.
small risk...high reward.
Used to do this at the New England dog tracks back in the 70's..played it 5 times and hit 3..What old timer from New England remembers the name "Ten Grand Teddy"?
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09-13-2013, 03:42 PM
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#21
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Za Approval
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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09-13-2013, 05:01 PM
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#22
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
It goes like this. If you have 100,000 you are risking it to make 5,000? Doesn't matter the amount.......What? You are going risk 50 to make 5? No matter who the horse is, theres ALWAYS the chance you will lose. Before you bother learning the math the first thing a GOOD gambler realizes is they may LOSE the bet. If you never learn that you are destined to lose your entire life.
This is why if you have 100,000 and you want to make 5,000....its way better to wait for a 5-1 you like and put 1%(1,000) of your bankroll on that.....UTILITY (getting value). Of course, most bridge jumpers have a huge bankroll so the 100,000 is not going to kill them.....they call them bridge jumpers but most are NOT. They are whales. Basically utilization is figuring out the point where the risk is worth the return, win or lose. I don't have 100,000 to lose on a horse race and most don't. People that understand this theory are betting a LOW proportion of their bankroll for the maximum return. Simple, bang for the buck theory. A good gambler does this naturally without even realizing the math or economic theory.
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People always say that if you have 100, why do you need another 5, but the reality of the situation is that in current society and this economy, you need every penny you can get your hands on. If that person didnt risk the 100k on a wager, they would probably place it in some sort of investment vehicle and hopefully, if their cards fall right, they will have turned that 100 into 105 after 1 calendar year.
So, if you want the 5 right way without having to wait, you "invest" on a show bet.
There are WAY too many horses spread around the country that have big show bets that shouldnt. There might be 1 or 2 situations Per YEAR where taking 5% on your money is good value, but these big show bettors make quite a few mistakes and they plunge on situations where their horse has at least one glaring flaw sprinkled into a lot of positives.
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09-13-2013, 05:16 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 108
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I really appreciate the commentary here. Probably will root on Wise Dan and make five $100 win bets elsewhere on the card and see how I end up. Anyone focusing in on the guaranteed pick 4 which is really a pick 3 with the Mile as part of it?
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09-13-2013, 05:37 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Saratoga, NY
Posts: 393
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Save your money for West Virginia Breeders Night, You can bet Jax and Jill and Lucys Boy Bob get $2.20 twice and collect make 21% + any rebates
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09-13-2013, 06:11 PM
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#25
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneyandland
Save your money for West Virginia Breeders Night, You can bet Jax and Jill and Lucys Boy Bob get $2.20 twice and collect make 21% + any rebates
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that horse usually gets a 500k show punch.
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09-13-2013, 06:56 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,242
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I once had a list of 10 Qualities of the perfect Bridge Jump...
I don't remember them all, but the only obvious one Wise Dan lacks is a solid entrymate.
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09-13-2013, 06:57 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,242
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Some of the 10 were...
Good Jockey
Good Trainer
Okay Post
Short Field
Experience on the Track
Okay likely pace scenario
Recent quality race (90 days)
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09-13-2013, 09:03 PM
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#28
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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no bridge jump here.
Wise Dan is a very nice horse, but this should be a challenge nonetheless. I don't see a fail-to-fire but still-contend scenario like you would want for over-betting your bankroll to Show.
Woodbine traditionally has a heavy turf course. I haven't been following it to confirm or deny. The Play the King stakes 8/25 was fairly heavy looking although fast.
Za Approval is a good horse. I don't know that he's Woodbine Mile good, but he has been on my radar since Gulfstream. He was able to ship to Hollywood and run well vs. a wire-to-wire speed horse in a similar spacing.
Trade Storm is an unknown to me. 4th in Dubai Duty Free, raced at Ascot, and Goodwood. Ships overseas for this race.
Riding the River is a very good horse. If some of these go for it on the pace at a mile, I fully expect RTR to pick up some pieces.
Excaper and Dimension are not all that great but they are solid enough for one to run a decent enough race.
That said, Go Wise Dan!
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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09-13-2013, 09:34 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VeryOldMan
What is the minimum return on a $2 show bet at WO? I don't play it often and don't know whether it is 2.10 or 2.20 - help me out.
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The answer to your question is that the minimum return on a $2 show bet at WO is $2.10.
Woodbine just might not have show betting in Wise Dan's race, just like Woodbine did not have show betting in Friday's 3rd race.
They are not afraid to drop show betting at Woodbine.
Last edited by SandyW; 09-13-2013 at 09:36 PM.
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09-14-2013, 02:02 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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Heavy turf course? the backstretch (the old Marshall course) is softer than the new parts (Everywhere else), considering they hit the turn after a couple of f's, I don't think it'll place that much, plus it's been really warm in Toronto this week.
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