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Old 03-15-2019, 06:37 AM   #1
Half Smoke
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Reducing # of bets to improve ROI

this is what has worked for me
making a much, much smaller no. of bets
betting only when I have a very strong opinion

an alternative is betting much smaller when you don't have a strong opinion

is it less fun?

maybe

but, to me, making a fistful of bets and coming away negative most of the time is no fun at all
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Old 03-15-2019, 10:12 AM   #2
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Amen! Arnold Rothstein in Boardwalk Empire said it best and I try to follow it, but it is hard lol!


I agree with you 1000%!


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Old 03-15-2019, 10:33 AM   #3
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While there are occasions when a false heavy favorite, or a complete lack of standouts call for a spread or an 'all', ...

I find that my best play comes from a very straight, direct, 'surgical' approach.

Having an 'opinion' is the basis for the play in the first place. In most situations, I find that making a direct bet of my opinion is the highest ROI.

I can always start with the minimum allowed wager size, and if that is working as a profit, begin incrementally increasing that wager.

$2 win , $3win ...
$0.50 Tri , $1 Tri etc...


Or - If I'm losing and going for entertainment, a minimum wager for all races that I can come up with some semblance of opinion, other than say the 'Feature Race' where I bet $10 or $20 or $50 or whatever... Save some money for a slice of pizza


Or - If I'm highly rebated for a volume of high 'churn', then it's a different animal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cice View Post
Amen! Arnold Rothstein in Boardwalk Empire said it best and I try to follow it, but it is hard lol!


I agree with you 1000%!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auVyi9lVYhA
Great clip. An 'opportunist'.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 03-15-2019 at 10:36 AM.
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Old 03-15-2019, 10:45 AM   #4
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Shoving as much money through the windows as possible while getting a good rebate can boost your bottom line. Do you want to bet $100,000 per year and make a 5% profit after rebate -- $5,000. Or do you want to bet $200,000,000 per year and make 1% after rebate?
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:02 AM   #5
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Quote:
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Shoving as much money through the windows as possible while getting a good rebate can boost your bottom line. Do you want to bet $100,000 per year and make a 5% profit after rebate -- $5,000. Or do you want to bet $200,000,000 per year and make 1% after rebate?


good point, except I won't play the overseas books offering rebates which is potentially illegal in the U.S.

too many stipulations and I don't trust them

I've personally had problems with them in the past and there are lots of stories out there

your experience may be more favorable

also, if you're betting gigantic sums as indicated you still would have to beat the public by somewhere about 12 -15% to have a profit - and throwing that much money out there, I don't think I could do that. the public is generally not stupid about their bets

Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-15-2019 at 11:05 AM.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:18 AM   #6
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I believe that only 22 states allow online gambling on horse racing.
So many of us don't have a legal option to get rebates.

Since I began betting my DDs cold, I hit less doubles but my ROI has improved.
In exactas I bet only a two horse box. If I can't narrow my picks down to two horses,
I don't bet.

Staying away from trifectas and superfectas has saved me lots of cash.

For a two to three hundred-dollar a day bettor less combos is better.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:41 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
good point, except I won't play the overseas books offering rebates which is potentially illegal in the U.S.

too many stipulations and I don't trust them

I've personally had problems with them in the past and there are lots of stories out there

your experience may be more favorable

also, if you're betting gigantic sums as indicated you still would have to beat the public by somewhere about 12 -15% to have a profit - and throwing that much money out there, I don't think I could do that. the public is generally not stupid about their bets
As you bet more, it is likely more rebates will be offered to you.

Plenty of ADWs that offer rebates in the U.S.

It is not easy. It is not impossible, either.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:42 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MONEY View Post
I believe that only 22 states allow online gambling on horse racing.
So many of us don't have a legal option to get rebates.

Since I began betting my DDs cold, I hit less doubles but my ROI has improved.
In exactas I bet only a two horse box. If I can't narrow my picks down to two horses,
I don't bet.

Staying away from trifectas and superfectas has saved me lots of cash.

For a two to three hundred-dollar a day bettor less combos is better.
If you can't get rebates then betting less seems like a good strategy.
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Old 03-15-2019, 12:08 PM   #9
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WOW! I’m surprised this sort of topic even has to be raised?
I was always under the impression that one of the most important factors to long term success in this game is being selective!
Pretty much just common sense if you ask me.

Another secret to improving your ROI (assuming the selection is strong) is to bet MORE when the odds are HIGH and bet LESS when they’re LOW.
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Old 03-15-2019, 12:23 PM   #10
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I think a lot of people know it but don't do it.

that's why I posted
to say that it has worked for me
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Old 03-15-2019, 01:56 PM   #11
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There can be no question that reducing our bets will improve our ROI. And, for about 99% of us, eliminating our wagers altogether will improve our bottom line further still. And the same theory applies in reverse. For 99% of us...INCREASING the number of our bets will cause our LOSSES to increase...often beyond control. This proliferation in the number of different wagers in this game is a well-thought-out plan of the track to entice the horseplayer into wagering on every race on the card. No suitable win-bet in the race? No problem...let's just box or wheel and backwheel a few horses in the exacta...or the trifecta. We have a win-bet but the odds are unappetizing short? Why pass the race...when we can use this "sure thing" as an anchor in the upcoming pick-3...or the pick-4? The race is completely indecipherable and we are thinking of grabbing a sandwich instead? We can easily do that while also pressing the "all-button"...in pursuit of the big longshot that triggers those huge horizontal wager payoffs that we salivate after.

The racetrack keeps making it as hard as possible for the horseplayer to remain disciplined in this game...and the horseplayer must keep reminding himself that discipline is his most potent weapon in this game. This is what it all boils down to...IMO.
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Last edited by thaskalos; 03-15-2019 at 02:08 PM.
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Old 03-15-2019, 03:35 PM   #12
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Only part of Arnold Rothstein's representation by the character in the "Boardwalk Empire" series clip that I disagree with is the 'betting it all' part.

You may be surprised with some decent hits from simply 'playing your opinion', and even if you strikeout, you can still pay the electric bill.

If you do well, incrementally increase the minimums.



Wager Cost bolded

2019-02-26
...
Sunland Park
7
Superfecta
$0.20
5 + 6 / 5 + 6 / 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 / 4
$1.20
$49.84

2019-01-12
...
Bet
Gulfstream
8
Double
$1.00
2 + 4 / 4
$2.00
$43.40


2019-02-13
...
Bet
Sam Houston
5
Superfecta
$0.10
4 / 2 + 6 / 2 + 3 + 6 / 3 + 8
$0.60
$22.22

2019-02-09
...
Bet
Mahoning Valley
3
Superfecta
$0.10
1 + 2 + 3 / 1 + 2 + 3 / 1 + 2 + 3 / 5 + 6
$1.20
$23.16

2019-02-06
...
Bet
Gulfstream
6
Superfecta
$0.10
6 / 3 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 / 3 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 / 1
$1.20
$24.98


2019-02-15
...
Bet
Delta Downs
7
Exacta
$1.00
6 + 8 / 7
$2.00
$136.10


2019-02-25
...
Mahoning Valley
5
Superfecta
$0.10
2 + 3 + 4 + 7 / 5 / 2 + 3 + 4 + 7 / 8
$1.20
$36.89


2018-03-14
...
Bet
Gulfstream
6
Pick-3
$0.50
2 + 3 + 8 / 7 / 2
$1.50
$28.35

2018-07-18
...
Bet
Del Mar
1
Trifecta
$0.50
5 + 6 / 1 + 6 + 7 / 2
$2.50
$181.50

2019-01-13
...
Gulfstream
9
Win
$1.00
5
$1.00
$5.70

2018-11-16
...
Bet
Del Mar
5
Pick-3
$0.50
1 + 5 + 6 / 4 + 5 + 6 / 1
$4.50
$137.80

2018-07-14
...
Bet
Delaware Park
9
Trifecta
$0.50
3 + 6 / 2 / 1 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 9
$5.00
$100.15
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 03-15-2019 at 03:38 PM.
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Old 03-15-2019, 06:02 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
We have a win-bet but the odds are unappetizing short?

I've seen it quite a few times and its almost comical.

A very strong fave is about 1/2
So, a lot of geniuses think putting the fave on top of the 2nd fave in the exacta will cure the problem - and some even bet others under the fave

so what happens - the fave wins with the 2nd fave underneath

and guess what - it pays less than what a win bet on the fave would have paid

seriously, you couldn't dream up this stuff

Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-15-2019 at 06:03 PM.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:43 PM   #14
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It's important to pick your wagers and stick with them! I rarely cancel but I did for some reason on this one. The 6th at Sam Houston. The 7 won and paid $42.60.



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Old 03-16-2019, 12:19 AM   #15
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WOW! I’m surprised this sort of topic even has to be raised?
I was always under the impression that one of the most important factors to long term success in this game is being selective!
Pretty much just common sense if you ask me.

Another secret to improving your ROI (assuming the selection is strong) is to bet MORE when the odds are HIGH and bet LESS when they’re LOW.



That about sums up my approach.
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