TimeformUS Figs Key to Belmont Longshot Win

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

With those familiar with the technical methods of stock market analysis, I just noticed that the naming process of pace patterns to be similar to the Japanese Candlestick method of market analysis where a pattern is defined by the shape that the data suggests.
I vaguely remember one shape resembling and called the Tombstone indicating some kind of negative outcome. I found that one amusing - In a dark humor sort of way.

So does the Hanging Man equate to the Peak, or maybe the Valley? On second thought maybe the Valley should be the Hammer candlestick pattern. Actually your analogy to Japanese Candlesticks has been used for tote board trends in Horse racing.

http://www.betstories.com/2012/10/09...lestick-chart/

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

45.2 on that track was a fast pace? We have differing opinions on fast pace.

I guess we do. The half mile pace must be looked at in reference to the final time to be relevant. The pace figures for the race came up fast too.
130-125-117

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

So does the Hanging Man equate to the Peak, or maybe the Valley? On second thought maybe the Valley should be the Hammer candlestick pattern. Actually your analogy to Japanese Candlesticks has been used for tote board trends in Horse racing.

http://www.betstories.com/2012/10/09...lestick-chart/

I forget who made the first analogy but Technical Stock Analysis corresponds to tote board action while Fundamental Analysis corresponds to handicapping the horses through their PPs.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

This was an interesting race from a Pace Projector perspective. I'm pushing we change these races to "Slow Pace" or even better "No Pace" designations. I'm not sure putting horses on the lead or near the front that don't really want to be there is an advantage at all. I personally tend to favor off the pace types in these kinds of races.

I've made the same observation, as had a certain sportscaster whose name I forget. He was discussing a race run way back when when Exceller, who should have been best, tried to win a race on the lead. He tired badly. Forcing horses without natural speed to run fast knocks the hell out of them before the finish.

The only problem with the Slow Pace designation in races like this is that it will imply that closers will be at a disadvantage. Hard to predict what will happen when horses change their runnung styles.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I forget who made the first analogy but Technical Stock Analysis corresponds to tote board action while Fundamental Analysis corresponds to handicapping the horses through their PPs.

The only difference is that Technical analysis is dealing directly with performance by using stock prices while the tote board is dealing with horses' performance indirectly with odds. Technical Analysis is really more like handicapping the horses.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by jimmyb

#3 Lewis Bay, looks like the lead horse. Gets Irad, good pace and speed ratings.

sort of catching up. Again, did not play or watch the race, and again...

[jay68802]

If you thought was declining or going off form, this would help. Column AM is the ranking, note the has the lowest or best pre-race ranking. The next two columns are how each horse uses energy. It has been at belmont that Column AO has been consistently over .33. In this race no horse qualifies, the best late runners are the ,. and . Does not indicate any strong plays here, but gets on the right track.

Going to add the descriptions CJ used and study it. Should be interesting.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

This I don't agree with at all based on experience. There are things we can't see. For example, what if the horses are head and head in optimal time but one really wants to get his head in front, but the jockey won't let him? Do you think that takes a toll?

I agree with this.

I'm not as hostile to riders as some people if they try to relax speed horses off the lead when there are other speeds in the race. IMO, nothing's worse than battling a superior speed horse for the lead. You are just going to get torched and blow positions. But I'm no fan of choking a horse back that is clearly not relaxing. That never works either.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

This was an interesting race from a Pace Projector perspective. I'm pushing we change these races to "Slow Pace" or even better "No Pace" designations. I'm not sure putting horses on the lead or near the front that don't really want to be there is an advantage at all. I personally tend to favor off the pace types in these kinds of races.

I think many horses are somewhat versatile (especially if they are lightly raced), but I think the whole "loose lead" theory is overrated partly for what you are suggesting here.

Most of the horses that benefit by being loose are the high strung types with blazing speed that have a tough time sustaining their speed well enough to win at the distance they are competing at. If a horse like that get's loose and relaxes or runs on a track that's carrying speed, it can move up a LOT. If it battles or gets outrun, it's usually dead.

But imo the typical horse that relaxes on it's own doesn't gain nearly as much, if anything at all, by being loose unless the pace is so ridiculously slow the other horses have trouble making up ground.

The other problem is that if a horse is a closer, he probably doesn't have much natural speed. So what looks like slow fractions for horses of that quality may actually still be too quick for him.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

So does the Hanging Man equate to the Peak, or maybe the Valley? On second thought maybe the Valley should be the Hammer candlestick pattern. Actually your analogy to Japanese Candlesticks has been used for tote board trends in Horse racing.

http://www.betstories.com/2012/10/09...lestick-chart/

I had previously read how reading tote board trends is a form of technical analysis applied to horse race betting, but this is the 1st article I've seen giving actual profitable examples. Thanks for sharing this. A good read.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

So does the Hanging Man equate to the Peak, or maybe the Valley? On second thought maybe the Valley should be the Hammer candlestick pattern. Actually your analogy to Japanese Candlesticks has been used for tote board trends in Horse racing.

http://www.betstories.com/2012/10/09...lestick-chart/

Here's link to another article showing how Betfair trading is like online stock trading.

http://www.betstories.com/2012/08/01...stock-trading/

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

This was an interesting race from a Pace Projector perspective. I'm pushing we change these races to "Slow Pace" or even better "No Pace" designations. I'm not sure putting horses on the lead or near the front that don't really want to be there is an advantage at all. I personally tend to favor off the pace types in these kinds of races.

same her, especially if I really like a closer, I know they wont be 10 out of it at the QP.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

same her, especially if I really like a closer, I know they wont be 10 out of it at the QP.

I'm sure that is a big part of it!

[cj]

I haven't forgotten the query, this is a little more complicated than I thought. Hard at work.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

I haven't forgotten the query, this is a little more complicated than I thought. Hard at work.

I understand. I bet there are a lot of races that fall into grey areas between the different patterns and won't be easy to classify. I'm sure the results will be worth the wait.