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Old 07-30-2020, 10:25 PM   #136
Robert Fischer
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
It has always been denied, but I have my suspicions.
Same.

I don't believe that they can see into pick-X's, but it's possible.

TBH, I don't know what is possible.
A lot of this stuff is 'hazy' to me, and is outside my circle of competence.
I do not have a strong understanding of all of the details.


One example is the newly offered 'Trifecta Probables'
I don't know whether these are pool estimates based on a metric using exacta and other pool info, or whether these are true pool calculations. ?

I don't know whether the tracks that don't offer the trifecta-probables, don't have that calculation or metric available, or simply decide not to offer it. Or, even whether the non-offered trifecta probables can be purchased or duplicated for certain customers.

The basic stuff regarding the Trifecta Probables is not (to my understanding) a great leap from similar models governing Doubles-->Pick-3 pools.
AFAIK Pick-3 pools are universally 'blind' pools.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 07-30-2020 at 10:26 PM.
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Old 07-31-2020, 04:14 AM   #137
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Not that I didn't already know this, but the one thing to be learned from all this is that if you are playing these jackpot pools with a small bankroll alone, good luck. You are simply feeding the whales.
the juice you pay is to much.
when it comes to jackpot day, the same guys walk away with the money every time. Moody and Gallo have been getting most of the money for the past 25 years, especially the greyhound pots.
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Old 07-31-2020, 09:35 AM   #138
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It wouldn't be hard to put daylight on all of these pools.
I'm hoping it's all rumor and sour grapes.

If we find out that certain customers are getting information advantages over regular customers that's not going to be received well.

I'm already suspicious of maintenance crews. It wouldn't be too difficult for them to occasionally create a bias that no one knows about going into the early double. Over the years I've seen some odd betting in the 1st race on days that just happened to have a strong speed bias that popped up out of nowhere.
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Old 07-31-2020, 10:59 AM   #139
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Lots

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Originally Posted by Sea Hero View Post
I've been watching this happen for three weeks. The latest was Early Mischief in the 6th at Keeneland today. The horse was 10-1 when the gate opened, 10-1 entering the stretch on the lead, and 10-1 as the horses crossed the wire.

Then it dropped to 5-1. That in a win pool of $239,233. That isn't the only one, either. All major tracks: NYRA, Woodbine, Gulfstream, SoCal, Keeneland. All got one stepped after betting closed. 8-1 down to 3-1. 4-1 down to 9/5. 5-1 down to 5/2. 8/5 down to 2/5. Even a 14-1 down to 9/2 at a smaller track. No intermediate flash. One stepped in the odds. It gets really old. It isn't a one off thing. I've seen it at least 20 times in three weeks. It probably happened a lot more.


Oh, and all but two won. the ones that lost did it by a nose. Looks like the cheater has to do it before the win photos are posted.



United or whoever better fix this, because I can't be the only one who's seeing this happen.



Here's an Amwager screen shot of the win table betting odds. Post time was 2:52, winner was #3.
I bet through Parx and its the same, I'm watching on live video and as the horses break my horse is 15-1, then it pays $12
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Old 07-31-2020, 06:57 PM   #140
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https://www.drf.com/news/jackpot-pay...ering-programs

I am just going to assume that anyone I know who plays is getting a substantial rebate and if you bet and you are not then you are just doing it for the fun of betting on horse racing. Its pretty much a rigged game against those that do not.

Like the part about NYRA, did not know that about the late pick 5.
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Old 07-31-2020, 07:47 PM   #141
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“They’re obviously very big customers who generate a lot of revenue for the sport,” said one racetrack operator who did not want to be identified because of the backlash he might face.

Only comment we really need to read, akin to "all wagers were time stamped properly."
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Old 07-31-2020, 09:02 PM   #142
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When you think about it, it's pretty amazing, and not in a good way, that we've seen racetracks deny a jackpot to an ordinary player who covers both ends of a dead heat, but a computer player who bets multiple tickets on one combination gets paid.
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Old 07-31-2020, 11:40 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
When you think about it, it's pretty amazing, and not in a good way, that we've seen racetracks deny a jackpot to an ordinary player who covers both ends of a dead heat, but a computer player who bets multiple tickets on one combination gets paid.
Different states and tracks, and different rules. It may very well be that the rules were poorly drafted but was there any evidence that the rules weren't followed?
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:44 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by metro View Post
Only comment we really need to read, akin to "all wagers were time stamped properly."
To be clear, I'm not implying anything beyond what I'm saying.

I was a computer programmer and programming consultant for 25 years before moving on to jobs in racing to enjoy myself more. If you are good enough to hack into a system and change or add tickets, you are also probably good enough to change a time stamp.
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Old 08-01-2020, 02:16 PM   #145
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So....other than these guys being smarter and effectively raising the takeout on idiots like me and everyone else here...

What exactly is the problem again?
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Old 08-01-2020, 02:53 PM   #146
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race 4 saratoga #1 is going in the gate at 22-1. if he gets the lead, lets see what price he finishes at
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Old 08-01-2020, 02:59 PM   #147
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So....other than these guys being smarter and effectively raising the takeout on idiots like me and everyone else here...

What exactly is the problem again?
The secret nature of it all.
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Old 08-01-2020, 03:12 PM   #148
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So....other than these guys being smarter and effectively raising the takeout on idiots like me and everyone else here...

What exactly is the problem again?
If CAWs are given data on Trifectas, Pick-3s, or other deeper multi data (such as uncovered jackpot combinations) then that should be considered 'criminal'/'cheating' by both the CAW in that instance and the Race Track or ADW that offers the data and the false advertising to the public.


/As far as the Trifecta pool data - It is the actual pool info not an estimate. It's not offered at all tracks. I don't know whether it is 'possible' to obtain that info at the tracks that don't currently offer Trifecta Pool probables, but it seems that if it were, it would be free money to CAWs or insiders (via simple correction of inefficiencies).

I don't have enough understanding to say that the Trifecta Pool technology is something that means that Pick-3 pools are in fact able to be calculated in the same or similar way. On the surface, that seems 'logical', but I can't make any type of informed statement. Certainly questionable, and as a pool that is 'blind' to all public ADW offerings, it is a valid concern that CAWs and insiders could have access to this.

If CAWs simply use expensive computers and elegant creative algorithms to make better 'estimates' and power ratings etc... - I don't have a problem with that. That's what I call a high-level pro operation.

If the actual pool Probables and info like 'uncovered combos' are available, but not shared to the public, that is criminal.
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Old 08-01-2020, 03:23 PM   #149
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If CAWs are given data on Trifectas, Pick-3s, or other deeper multi data (such as uncovered jackpot combinations) then that should be considered 'criminal'/'cheating' by both the CAW in that instance and the Race Track or ADW that offers the data and the false advertising to the public.
So now we are inventing possible scenarios?

OK.

What exactly is/was preventing them from offering up this type of info to everyone?? When exactly did this "secret info" start becoming available to ANYONE? Was it available even before the widespread "attack of the CAWs?" And if so, why was it hidden from view even way back then?

Many questions for the many "what ifs" hanging around out there...
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Old 08-01-2020, 03:38 PM   #150
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Attack of the CAWs

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
So now we are inventing possible scenarios?

OK.
Somebody (besides the CAWs) needs to think out loud about the technology and the integrity of the pools.

Should be simple. Don't allow late betting. No cancel delay. No hacking. No blind pools.

Allowing someone rebates, and the ability to calculate and successfully place a a large 'batch' of wagers in the last few seconds is plenty reward for investing in and contributing to our pools.

I don't even think it's possible to see 'uncovered combos', but if it is, this whole 'jackpot' thing is nothing more than a sham...

I know this thread was mainly started in regard to the perception of lack of integrity that happens with late odds changes.


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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
So now we are inventing possible scenarios?

OK.

What exactly is/was preventing them from offering up this type of info to everyone?? When exactly did this "secret info" start becoming available to ANYONE? Was it available even before the widespread "attack of the CAWs?" And if so, why was it hidden from view even way back then?

Many questions for the many "what ifs" hanging around out there...
I don't know, but some of that is worth considering.
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