Reality based Belmont handicapping thread ...

[davew]

IS Kid Cruz running in the Belmont? A longer race may give him more time for his awesome kick...

[tanner12oz]

That was completely non existent a week ago

[Mad Scientist]

Yeah I was wrong about kid Cruz in the Preakness. So I learned that lesson and apply it to my reality based handicapping in the Belmont. I never said I was right 100% of the time. I do though handicap 100% of my races.

There is no way that any horse player with even a minimal amount of experience can look at the past performances for the Belmont and say that based off all the horses running lines that 4 horses figure to finish ahead of CC. That's just not being reality based. CC just towers above the competition on paper by any handicapping metric you want to use .

So if your saying that you are not going to use CC at all in the superfecta than what your really saying is that you are hoping CC has something really unlucky happen to him such as a bad step or DQ, and if your whole betting strategy is based on something unlucky happening to another horse than you cease being a handicapper and now you have become the very definition of the word hater. And you have every right to be a hater but own up to what you are rather than just pulling out your PC Card that all the angry liberals seem to have and try to play the PC Card against me for calling you a hater .

The reality is and again this is a reality based thread but if your entire betting strategy surrounding the Belmont involves either CC breaking down or getting a DQ than you are a hater plain and simple .

But there are people out there who want to actually handicap the race based off of things that are reality based and not based off some fantasy interpretation of things or a unexplainable hate for CC.

Do you realize what you look like when you have conversations like this .... ( based off of actual conversation from real posters and not actors )

" Yeah dude Smarty Jones is so much better than CC. Just look who Smarty Jones beat in the Preakness. He beat Rock Hard Ten who won two grade 1 as a five year old. And who did CC beat ? Oh yeah he beat ROC. How many grade 1 did ROC win as a 5 year old ? Yeah the answer is ZERO. You CC fanboys are auch idiots lol."

Do you realize how stupid you appear to everyone that has not drank the Hatorade? Sure the usual CC hating suspects will turn a blind eye to the fact that ROC is a 3 year old and therefore it would only make sense that rock hard ten has more wins as a 5 year old but to the many People who come to this forum just to read the comments I am telling you dude your not coming off as the sharpest tool in the shed.

Just let the reality based handicappers have their own thread and all the rest can have slim their threads and we can come up with our tickets using chrome and you can come up with your tickets excluding chrome and than we will see who cashed, but something tells me even after we cash you guys will be saying what idiots we were to wager $50 to win $200 and how much smart you guys were to wager $50 and win nothing since your wagers were such better " values"

[Tom]

Do you realize how stupid you appear to everyone

The question is, do YOU?

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Tom

The question is, do YOU?

Is that a reality based question?

[Boris]

Originally Posted by Mad Scientist

I am not suggesting we discuss for 2 weeks whether CC is going to win. I am saying we figure out the superfecta and than maybe some multi race exotics.

Exacta - CC/ALL
Tri - CC/ALL/ALL
Super - CC/ALL/ALL/ALL
P3 - ALL/ALL/CC
P4 - ALL/ALL/ALL/CC

Problem solved.

[Mad Scientist]

I am not the one comparing wins as a 5 year old between a horse who raced as a 5 year old and a horse that has not even been alive for 5 years and than using that comparison to conclude that smarty jones is a much better horse than CC. That's the work of you people in the fantasy based horse handicapping world . It's your baby .... Own it ....

[cordep17]

Originally Posted by Tom

The question is, do YOU?

I wasn't going to be the one to say it.

[Mad Scientist]

I know you anti chrome folks love to take 18 horses in a race against CC . It must have really hurt when you lost not once but twice using that strategy, but that's not my style. That's why the point of this thread was to eliminate the pretenders and try to come up with a super where we don't have to spread to deep.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Horses are flesh and blood. Not machines. To think they can run the same race each and every time is fantasy. They could only give so much. That limit is what eludes handicappers. Unless you get it straight from the horse's mouth.

[Mad Scientist]

Back to the handicapping. Commissioners last 4 races, trounced in the fountain of youth and trounced in sunland derby and than trounced in the Arkansas derby and when I say trounced I mean beaten by at least 7 lengths in each of those races. His last race was closer beaten by only 4 lengths in the Peter Pan but does that really say more about what a weak field tonalist beat. I am trying to find a positive angle for this horse but I can't. I am sticking with my thought of this horse being a total toss out for the super . Any reality based handicappers have any thought on commissioner ?

I realize this horse may be a single for all those value players out there lol ... Why bet $2 on CC just to win $3 when you can bet $2 on commissioner and win $200

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Mad Scientist

... I never said I was right 100% of the time. I do though handicap 100% of my races. ...

Do you realize what you look like when you have conversations like this ....

Did you just have a debate with yourself? I thought I was the only one that did that and thought I was going crazy. Finally, someone I can relate too. How about the four of us go to a special room and discuss the merits of the Belmont?

[Boris]

This thread should come with popcorn.

[Mad Scientist]

Ok the more I look at commissioners running lines the more I can't believe he is entered in the race . He had a couple decent wins to start his career in a maiden and allowance race but they were decent at best. Low speed figures and faced no horses that I have ever heard of before and didn't win by a lot. Then he stepped up to the prep races and got drilled over and over. I don't see how Pletcher can justify putting this horse in the race.

He has no running style . He just starts off slow and stays slow. Complete toss out for me and the fact tonalist could only beat this horse by. 4 lengths does not say much for tonalist .

[PhantomOnTour]

29 posts in this thread and you haven't moved beyond Commissioner yet?

Awwwwww c'mon!




this thread rules