Derby Odds extrapolated from Will Pays

[Pioneer17]

I visit frequently, but haven't posted in years. This crazy Derby has brought me back to share a few thoughts. Also, I have my spreadsheet set up to extrapolate Off Odds based on Double Will Pays.

As I understand it, Churchill has a 17.5% takeout in the win pool and a 22% takeout in the Double pool. If these are old takeout rates or if Churchill uses different rates for Derby and Oaks, then these odds will be off to some degree.

Anyway... here are the expected Off Odds

#14 Angel of Empire (3-1)
#5 Tapit Trice (9/2)
#15 Forte (9/2)
#17 Derma Sotogake (6-1)
#3 Two Phils (8-1)
#2 Verifying (10-1)
#23 Mandarin Hero (12-1)
#6 Kingsbarns (13-1)
#8 Mage (15-1)
#4 Confidence Game (16-1)
#11 Disarm (20-1)
#1 Hit Show (29-1)
#7 Reincarnate (31-1)
#18 Rocket Can (37-1)
#21 Cyclone Mischief (50-1)
#13 Sun Thunder (65-1)
#12 Jace's Road (68-1)
#23 King Russell (78-1)
#16 Raise Cain (85-1)

I mess around with these Will Pays every year on Derby Eve, but I've never really checked back to see how well the Will Pays predicted the Off Odds, so I guess we'll see.

As far as the Derby goes, relative to these expected odds, it's a pretty wacky year. We have a 3-1 favorite with a career high 94 Beyer and a prior Top of 89. I've been burned several times by electric stretch runs in the Arkansas Derby, going all the way back to Rampage and Demons Begone. I don't trust the sexy Arky Derby runner anymore especially at 3-1 in a 19 horse field.

We also have the very popular Two Phil's fresh off of a spike performance on tapeta. His pedigree screams synthetic success with Hard Spun, General Quarters and Sky Mesa. Two Phil's has lost ground in the stretch run of all 3 real dirt routes over dry fast going. TV and Youtube analysts keep talking about his 2 big races over tapeta and the sloppy/sealed race at Churchill. At 20-1, sure, take a shot that it all translates in the Derby... but 8-1??

There are also 2 Japanese invaders (I'm kinda attracted to one myself) and they look pretty good, but the Saudi to Kentucky trip has been a trainwreck up to this point in time. So, I would have liked a price before dipping my toes into the foreign pool again.

There seem to be a lot of rumors about Forte, but I'll leave that alone for now. The one thing Tapit Trice fans didn't want was an inside draw and the trip could get messy from the 5 hole. Pletcher's other one, Kingsbarns, ran in that crazy slow Louisiana Derby and only has the 3 lifetime starts.

Verifying has distance concerns and now is hand is probably forced from the 2 hole.

Confidence game didn't participate in the major preps and won in the slop ta boot.

Long story short, I'm looking for a bit of chaos in the top couple of spots. I'm going to keep it fairly cheap and box up a few longshot exactas keying Disarm with a few, Hit show with a few and Rocket Can with a few.

It's the first Derby that I can remember where I list more cons than pros the top 7 or 8 faves. Anyway, good luck to everyone and have a terrific Derby Day!

[Nitro]

Extrapolating the odds from the Will Pays may be an interesting endeavor, but you might want to compare your results with the actual current odds which of course are based on just the Win pool as of 10 PM EST.

https://www.twinspires.com/bet/progr...hbred/12/pools

[Pioneer17]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Extrapolating the odds from the Will Pays may be an interesting endeavor, but you might want to compare your results with the actual current odds which of course are based on just the Win pool as of 10 PM EST.

https://www.twinspires.com/bet/progr...hbred/12/pools

Thanks, and yeah I've been following along with them all day. I usually use the Will Pays to find out if my odds are likely to drop on a horse or maybe drift a little. It may not work as well on the Derby though, with the giant pools and large amounts of money coming through from people who don't follow horse racing the rest of the year. I'll check post Derby and see how accurate the Will Pays were at predicting Off Odds this year.

Anyway, I thought it was interesting that Angel of Empire was that low.

[rastajenk]

And that you have Forte at 9-2.

That was an interesting read, Pioneer.

[Aerocraft67]

Surely money on the double is categorically sharper than the Derby win pool, and a fifth choice winner in the Oaks amplifies this. Ironically, this may not be a great indication of final win odds accordingly—sort of the opposite of day-to-day races where you have to rely on the will pays to predict final odds that change dramatically in the final seconds. Hard to imagine Derby odds moving like that. I'll use it as a proxy for a "value" line of shaper money, and weight it more in valuing exotics than the win pool.

These odds largely reflect our discussions all week. They definitely reshuffle the top three, with a "surprise" Angel of Empire on top. But one of our own called this out in the Skinner scratch thread. DRF has an article with a fair value line with at 5-1, expected odds 6-1, and he's Aragona's top pick accordingly.

But 3-1? Hard to imagine he'll go that low. He's still at 6-1 with $3 million in the pool, just shy of second choice Tapit Trice. I guess you can anticipate that his odds drop some more, or that he's an even better value to win than his backers predicted.

Can't say as we'd accurately predicted Forte and Tapit Trice tied for second choice at 9/2, but it makes sense. Tapit Trice got more attention, and Forte more skepticism from the enthusiasts. DRF's Aragona values Tapit Trice at 9-1, so even at a more palatable 6-1 than his 5-1 morning line, Tapit Trice may still be an underlay, but a little more playable for those that like him.

The rest is about what we expected. Slightly surprised Kingsbarns didn't drift up more in the double, but makes sense that 22 Mandarin Hero edged him for seventh choice. Disarm took a little money in the double, but still above 25-1 in the win pool. Maybe Derma Sotogake preserves a bit of value in the win pool after getting respect in the double.

Reincarnate and Hit Show didn't move much from ML in the double, even though they got a little attention. We'll see if he stays there, but is a very surprising seventh choice at 15-1 right now, besting Verifying. I planned to use underneath, but given that he'll show up in casual boxes, I'll probably jettison him from my tickets and focus on the other two longshots.

Along with , I'll stick with my choices and . They got more attention in the double than the win pool; I'll take that as confirmation.