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Old 11-17-2014, 07:08 PM   #1
Bob S.
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Why I Won't Be Betting On American Pharoah To Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

Because he won't get the distance.

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014...entucky-derby/
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Old 11-17-2014, 08:13 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Bob S.
That and a fair chance he doesn't make the starting gate
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Old 11-17-2014, 08:20 PM   #3
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He doesn't run like a sprinter, he runs like a strong 2yo miler.
Not many thought that Bayern, or Bodemeister,
would stick around for 10 furlongs.

I won't be betting the horse for the Derby, either.
For different reasons than in the article, though.
Namely - lack of betting value.
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Old 11-17-2014, 09:24 PM   #4
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I always say really good two year olds are often like the kids who hit puberty before everyone else and dominate the little league world series. Many of them get caught up to.
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Old 11-17-2014, 10:00 PM   #5
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I always say really good two year olds are often like the kids who hit puberty before everyone else and dominate the little league world series. Many of them get caught up to.
That and it's asking a lot for one that has already had an injury, no matter how minor, to come back strong. Think the distance would not have been a problem had he not already gotten hurt.
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Old 11-18-2014, 01:54 AM   #6
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This is what I posted back in May ahead of the Derby in terms on a quick look at past Bris Derby PP's.

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"Thanks to Brisnet to putting up PP's all the way back to 2000, I was looking at the pedigrees of the winners, it's interesting to note that of the last 14 winners, only once did the Sire AWD was longer than the Dam AWD (Barbaro). The average difference of the other 13 was +.73 (Animal Kingdom's +3.5 does bring the average up, there were 6 winners with differences of only +.1-+.3).

So bringing this back to this year, Samraat (-.2), Tapiture (-0.9), Candy Boy (-0.7) and Ride on Curlin (-0.4) are well regarded horses running against this."
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Old 11-18-2014, 08:57 AM   #7
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Derby Colts

I want to see more races out of a colt before making any decision on the Derby. Betting the early book is like picking #'s in a lottery. As far as breeding, nature runs a lottery and horses out run their pedigree everyday. I like known performers. I tend to go more for running styles than anything, horses that just lay off the pace are my favorite. They seem to get in less trouble, after all a lot of the ky derbies are closer to a rodeo than a horse race. jmo
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Old 11-18-2014, 09:43 AM   #8
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When and if jersey gets exchange wagering, i will be laying AP, just not convinced he'sa derby horse.

Allan
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Old 11-18-2014, 10:32 AM   #9
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I have no derby opinion on this horse at this time, but isn't November a little early for final derby declarations? Is there nothing the horse could do between now and the derby to sway your mind? From my perspective what I see them do in the flesh on the track trumps anything that breeding analysis might indicate. That's not to say that I don't look at breeding for the derby, just that it's not primary.
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Old 11-18-2014, 01:05 PM   #10
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His grandsire is a Belmont Stakes winner.

On the dam side, there isn't enough evidence since his dam failed to break her maiden, and second dam was a claimer, and I don't think their form should be taken seriously when evaluating a top horse like this.

Way too early to declare him not eligible for a 10 furlong win.

Last edited by letswastemoney; 11-18-2014 at 01:06 PM.
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Old 11-18-2014, 05:04 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
He doesn't run like a sprinter, he runs like a strong 2yo miler.
Not many thought that Bayern, or Bodemeister,
would stick around for 10 furlongs.

I won't be betting the horse for the Derby, either.
For different reasons than in the article, though.
Namely - lack of betting value.
Took the words right out of my mouth. Doubt there will be any value there, IF he even makes the gate. We'll see.
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Old 11-20-2014, 09:26 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Some_One
This is what I posted back in May ahead of the Derby in terms on a quick look at past Bris Derby PP's.
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile 7.1 AWD
Dam Sire: Yankee Gentleman 6.31 AWD
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Old 11-20-2014, 09:29 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
I have no derby opinion on this horse at this time, but isn't November a little early for final derby declarations? Is there nothing the horse could do between now and the derby to sway your mind? From my perspective what I see them do in the flesh on the track trumps anything that breeding analysis might indicate. That's not to say that I don't look at breeding for the derby, just that it's not primary.
For a 3 year old horse going a mile and a quarter for the first time breeding is of primary concern IMO.
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Old 02-15-2015, 12:43 PM   #14
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AP may not win the KY Derby.
His work at SA today, will have some salivating.
Looks like he is ready to prep soon.
Stay tuned.
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Old 02-15-2015, 07:19 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob S.
Bob,
Thus far do you see any resemblance between Baffert's handling of American Pharoah and Dortmund; and his handling of Point Given and Congaree as 3yos?
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