Pegasus...handicapping the race

[sammy the sage]

I don't think this race is as cut and dried as seems...(as long as it's not a GS rail speed favoring day)...me thinks someone not favored will come from off the pace to win... who is the question?...

a good race to HANDICAP...

[letswastemoney]

There are two big horses with speed (City of Light, Accelerate) and one big closer (Gunnevera).

One of them should win. The only confusion is who will complete the superfecta.

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

There are two big horses with speed (City of Light, Accelerate) and one big closer (Gunnevera).

One of them should win. The only confusion is who will complete the superfecta.

4 horses with speed...and a 5th if he desires...quess we're looking at different programs or figures...such as what makes racing/betting....

good luck with that...if you're right...you'll get my money...

[dkbigsky]

Looking at the race real quick I think Audible might catch them in the stretch.

[jay68802]

Accelerate: 3 Bullets in a row say the engine is tuned. Horse is in great form and is the deserving favorite. Race sets up for him.

True Timber: Another one who gets a good set up. Tried distance twice and has not hit the board. 5 year old is coming off his lifetime best and if he runs near that again can hit the exacta.

Patternrecognition: Little known trainer () and Ortiz is up. Change of running style has resulted in 3 straight wins. Outside draw means they stick with the running style. Keeping in the exacta.

Audible: Would rather play this one than Gunnevera. Just think he is better.


Exacta: /

[classhandicapper]

I think one of the keys to the race is how aggressive they get on Pattern Recognition from the outside post. He's been running better on the lead. If they use him too hard early to get the lead and save ground because the 1st turn comes so quickly that could be a problem. So could getting hung out if they don't. What he does could also impact how easy/tough of a trip City of Light gets.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Little doubt Accelerate is the horse to beat. 9/5 ML seems more like he'll go off at 4/5.



City of Light is the key horse for me. I see a 'bounce' out of him after his brilliant BC Dirt Mile and for him to take Patternrecognition with him on the front end. Also don't like the True Timber getting 9 panels and the as complete auto-tosses.



Also look for either of the much maligned 3YOs from last year in Bravazo or Audible to come out on top.


Something Awesome, Seeking the Soul, and Toms d'Etat to maybe even round out the Ex with Gunnevera strictly in the 3/4 hole.


//

[ubercapper]

I think three horses have the bulk of the probability to win the race:
Tom's d'Etat, City of Light and Accelerate.


I'm using Bravazo, Seeking the Soul, True Timber and Gunnevera in 2nd and 3rd.



My complete write-up is part of this week's blog https://www.amwager.com/handicapping/ellis-starr-blog

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Little doubt Accelerate is the horse to beat.

That's where I'm starting from.

Do I have a case against Accelerate? Not really. Maybe is a little past 'ripe' in terms of value... But I don't see any negative signs in actual form.

However, some of the turf racing looks interesting.

[jimmyb]

I believe Accelerate can be had at a mile and an eighth. I going to take a shot with audible.

[deathandgravity]

Patternrecognition
City of Light
True Timber
Accelerate


Agree Accelerate is the one to beat. Play against for & try to catch some $$$

[coachv30]

CITY OF LIGHT
ACCELERATE
PATTERNRECOGNITION
BRAVAZO
TRUE TIMBER

Good Luck All!!

[GMB@BP]

I think City of Light is a better horse than Accelerate and will beat him if the fractions are reasonable.

[taxicab]

I'll go to Audible,I wonder how well meant he was in his last.
Plus....I kind of think the mud isn't ideal for him,so I'll forgive him in his last.
He needs to be chirped at a bit also......sometimes those types don't do so great in the goo.
Fast track (I hope) Saturday...…...and he's fond of Gulfstream.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think one of the keys to the race is how aggressive they get on Pattern Recognition from the outside post. He's been running better on the lead. If they use him too hard early to get the lead and save ground because the 1st turn comes so quickly that could be a problem. So could getting hung out if they don't. What he does could also impact how easy/tough of a trip City of Light gets.

They have no choice,they have to send.
He's built for speed...….In more ways than one.
This guy is put together like a Quarter Horse...….smallish type,short legs,really chunky frame.
I'm amazed Chad caught a mile with him...…..great training job.
The other end of the stick is Chad's runner in the 7 mill grass.
Bricks and Mortar is tall,skinny and all legs...….he looks like a giraffe.
He also looks like he can run all day...….really good looking horse.