2019 Triple Crown Trail via TimeformUS

[cj]

Oaks stuff available in the attachment.

[bobphilo]

Thanks cj.

While Gunmetal Gray was visually impressive in winning the Sham and earning an Equibase lifetime top figure, his TFUS figure was poor and they seem to be declining over his last few.

[jay68802]

Thanks, I for one want to thank you for doing this. I find it very helpful and informative. Especially when used to compare to other figures out there.

[Suff]

Thank You

[Robert Fischer]

Thanks CJ

Looks like Kentucky Jockey Club was a fast pace. Hoping some bet-back plays materialize.

[cj]

Latest

Derby



Oaks

[cj]

Updated with Smarty Jones:

[ultracapper]

Top line of your spreadsheet should read Journey to the 2019 Triple Crown

I know, I'm a weirdo that way. Sorry.

[cj]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Top line of your spreadsheet should read Journey to the 2019 Triple Crown

I know, I'm a weirdo that way. Sorry.

I am as well, and I appreciate you telling me!

[cj]

Latest Derby points races added, will have the Oaks tomorrow after adding in the Busanda from Sunday.

[Tom]

Thanks CJ!
Tax moves right to the head of the class with that one.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

Thanks CJ!
Tax moves right to the head of the class with that one.

I was pretty wary of that one making the figures, just felt too high, but given the races right before and right after it would have been pure speculation to knock it down.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

I was pretty wary of that one making the figures, just felt too high, but given the races right before and right after it would have been pure speculation to knock it down.

The top 3 finishers ran faster than any california three year old to date on that list, it will be interesting if they hold that form moving forward.

Feels a bit high but time will be a good test.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

The top 3 finishers ran faster than any california three year old to date on that list, it will be interesting if they hold that form moving forward.

Feels a bit high but time will be a good test.

Tax hit the 110 TFUS mark in the Remsen in which he was coming off a maiden claiming win in his first start for what appears to be a significant "move up" trainer, so if we presume he's still improving its not that tough to swallow. However, I don't know much about the place horses and it was a blanket finish which tempers enthusiasm.

Interestingly, the Remsen had one of the slower pace figures on CJs Derby trail list while the Withers had one of the quickest. Yet Tax did not alter his running style very much. In both, Tax broke sharply (despite stumbling in the Withers) and prompted the pace for the opening quarter before relaxing nicely down the backstretch awaiting a bid for the lead. He took a hard shot at Maximum Mischief in the Remsen at the 1/4 pole but was ultimately rebuffed.

Considering his ability to tolerate a stronger pace I wonder if the Remsen outcome would have been different if he went for it from the outset that day. Given that Maximum Mischief predictably came back down to earth when facing a stronger early pace in the Holy Bull this weekend, it's not too far-fetched to think that Tax (or Network Effect, who stood to benefit from a stronger pace) would already be the main East Coast prospect up to this point.

[Robert Fischer]

Like I said in the RB Lewis thread, I was higher on Mucho Gusto's effort, than the three finishers in the Withers...

However, as a general comment; Not That Brady ran relatively well in the Withers. The pace was just fast enough that he did earn that extra TimeformUS point (119 vs 118) in spite of finishing 2nd. I also thought that he did well after taking the first turn very wide (Trakus has NTB's first quarter as 32' more distance than Tax). As a race-watcher I also felt that Tax should have probably separated from the place and show horses after he benefited from waiting a stride behind horses before getting the opening coming off the turn. Both the wide first-turn and the waiting behind horses are tough to 'numericize', and even debatable(E.g the Chart's language "Got forced to be taken in hand and paused at the three-sixteenths when placed in tight inside as NTB drifted in, had that rival be corrected outwards and rallied up the inside to take narrow command a furlong out..." makes it sound like a hardship rather than a trip benefit).

Not That Brady is not my 'Derby' horse at this point, but he's quietly racked up some decent pace figures. If post positions or other considerations are reversed in race such as the Gotham Stakes, I would take Not That Brady over Tax in my wagers.