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05-22-2018, 03:13 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
Given the early BRIS PPs for the Belmont Stakes, I've eliminated Justify and Audible from the win spot. So hope they both run and take a lot of $$.
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What in those PPs encouraged that decision?
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05-22-2018, 04:18 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
Given the early BRIS PPs for the Belmont Stakes, I've eliminated Justify and Audible from the win spot. So hope they both run and take a lot of $$.
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oops sorry, I meant Vino Rosso and Audible.
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05-22-2018, 04:44 PM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadVindication
What in those PPs encouraged that decision?
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I only used the PPs to find the probables for the race, so I'd have something to start in on.
I am one who feels that while performance always trumps pedigree, that the Belmont is *different*.
The year I did really well in this race (besides the year when I'll Have Another scratched out) was when Tonalist won w/Commissioner running 2nd. I used pretty much zero performance factors that year, capped it entirely on pedigree (killed me to leave off Chrome), only used the PPs for angles I used like "did not run in the Preakness", "never won a stakes race", "had a previous race at BEL" for finding horses who might run 2nd. All my friends were giving me a hard time about a Tapit getting 12F.
PPs were so "off" on their predictions that year.
Like any other method, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. If it looks like the odds are going to be very favorable when I reach my outcome, I use it.
Last edited by clicknow; 05-22-2018 at 04:47 PM.
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05-22-2018, 05:24 PM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
I only used the PPs to find the probables for the race, so I'd have something to start in on.
I am one who feels that while performance always trumps pedigree, that the Belmont is *different*.
The year I did really well in this race (besides the year when I'll Have Another scratched out) was when Tonalist won w/Commissioner running 2nd. I used pretty much zero performance factors that year, capped it entirely on pedigree (killed me to leave off Chrome), only used the PPs for angles I used like "did not run in the Preakness", "never won a stakes race", "had a previous race at BEL" for finding horses who might run 2nd. All my friends were giving me a hard time about a Tapit getting 12F.
PPs were so "off" on their predictions that year.
Like any other method, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. If it looks like the odds are going to be very favorable when I reach my outcome, I use it.
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I agree with you there. and will do mostly odds/pedigree. Performance wise I like what I seen from tenfold keeping a steady run. Since most the jockeys will be experienced what else is there when theres those unknowns.
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05-23-2018, 09:33 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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I'd be very surprised if Audible goes in the Belmont. No works since the KY Derby.
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05-23-2018, 10:24 AM
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#36
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Coming from you, I'll take that as a compliment.
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Ooh, Good one!
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05-23-2018, 01:54 PM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,631
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From the breeding angles, before Tapit progeny started winning the race (Hofburg potentially represents this year) the Raise A Native sire line coupled with the Northern Dancer dam sire line was red hot. Blended Citizen and Solomini fit this mold. Buckpasser-x hoses have done well. Vino Rosso, Audible, Bravazo, and Hofburg fit. Fast closing fractions at 9F have translated to Belmont winners. Justify, Vino Rosso, Audible, Hofburg, and perhaps others hit on this angle. Early speed also helps. Horses sitting more than 3-4 lengths off the leaders at the 3/4 in a big prep tend to miss the win pool in the Belmont. Justify, Audible, Hofburg, Blended Citizen. Horses within that margin at the mile pole in a crown race also work. Tenfold.
I plan on playing against Justify this time but still gotta pick the right horse(s). a lot to choose from before comparing figures. Hofburg seemingly fits most angles and I might simply play him over all/all.
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05-23-2018, 06:45 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Maybe we can start calling the Apollo phenomenon the blessing of Apollo not the curse of Apollo. Since starts are getting more and more infrequent for younger horses and careers delayed it makes sense that the curse of 1882 was going to fall. But getting to this point with 3 races in 5 weeks and going 12 furlongs the bright shining hope will falter by the lack of seasoning and foundation and too much too soon, if only for a day, dropping gifts into our greedy arms!
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05-23-2018, 06:57 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
I only used the PPs to find the probables for the race, so I'd have something to start in on.
I am one who feels that while performance always trumps pedigree, that the Belmont is *different*.
The year I did really well in this race (besides the year when I'll Have Another scratched out) was when Tonalist won w/Commissioner running 2nd. I used pretty much zero performance factors that year, capped it entirely on pedigree (killed me to leave off Chrome), only used the PPs for angles I used like "did not run in the Preakness", "never won a stakes race", "had a previous race at BEL" for finding horses who might run 2nd. All my friends were giving me a hard time about a Tapit getting 12F.
PPs were so "off" on their predictions that year.
Like any other method, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. If it looks like the odds are going to be very favorable when I reach my outcome, I use it.
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Commissioner, as I recall, had one of the greatest Belmont Stakes pedigrees in history. I think he had 3 Belmont winners in the first couple of generations.
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05-23-2018, 07:37 PM
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#40
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Commissioner, as I recall, had one of the greatest Belmont Stakes pedigrees in history. I think he had 3 Belmont winners in the first couple of generations.
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That was an underrated field. Tonalist, Commissioner, and Medal Count all had solid pedigrees for the Belmont. Wicked Strong and General a Rod's weren't too shabby either.
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05-23-2018, 08:11 PM
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#41
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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My Boy Jack
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
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05-23-2018, 10:45 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Commissioner, as I recall, had one of the greatest Belmont Stakes pedigrees in history. I think he had 3 Belmont winners in the first couple of generations.
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Yes, you remember correctly. I couldn't wait to get to the track that day. And one of the best 12F trainer in the nation (IMHO) Clement had Tonalist. How did he go off at such long odds...
BTW, a horse who was in that race, trained by Mott, and ridden by Mike Smith (eased in the stretch) is now running (very) low level claiming races at Horsemen's Park. He's on his 48 start or something. His current entry is for a $2,500 claiming race.
Matuszak, who is now 7 years old. Hope he gets a retirement....doesn't look promising.
Last edited by clicknow; 05-23-2018 at 10:55 PM.
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05-24-2018, 12:20 AM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
That was an underrated field. Tonalist, Commissioner, and Medal Count all had solid pedigrees for the Belmont. Wicked Strong and General a Rod's weren't too shabby either.
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I took Medal Count in all 3 spots of the tri and blew that one up. Was my last big score in the TC events.
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05-24-2018, 12:22 AM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
Yes, you remember correctly. I couldn't wait to get to the track that day. And one of the best 12F trainer in the nation (IMHO) Clement had Tonalist. How did he go off at such long odds...
BTW, a horse who was in that race, trained by Mott, and ridden by Mike Smith (eased in the stretch) is now running (very) low level claiming races at Horsemen's Park. He's on his 48 start or something. His current entry is for a $2,500 claiming race.
Matuszak, who is now 7 years old. Hope he gets a retirement....doesn't look promising.
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Looking back I have no idea why I didn't bet Tonalist! I was not convinced of Chrome.
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05-25-2018, 02:33 PM
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,415
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Looks like noble Indy is being pointed to the Belmont. He was the most outside speed and the derby where there was plenty of speed in that race and it was wet. That’s a throw away race for me. He ran against it in the LA derby. I expect a much better effort should he run in this race
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