Handicapping Method

[Dave Schwartz]

(Seems there is always one more to answer.)

I just think you were a bit harsh in your initial reply.

Windoor,


Nevertheless, I stand by that statement.

I believe that picking out (say) a dozen good horses for the next day to watch is not the way a person should be taught to play. Please note that this is not the same as saying, "I have a dozen spot plays for tomorrow."

BTW, your comment about that $45 horse - I get them all the time. Remember, the horse does not have to be the best horse in the race to be a value play. He just has to be a viable overlay. In fact, if one were getting very many 20/1 horses as their "best horse in the rest" I would question that their handicapping is reality-based.

But, as usual, this is just my opinion.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Dave Schwartz]

Geez, Thasky... getting sensitive here, aren't you?

Guys, Cincy made a provocative post to begin with - stating that this good old-fashioned way...

One thing that won't change,that is the most effective method of betting races is the simple old school,kindergarten teacher application of grading races.Every race morning,sit down and look at every race and grade it based on your opinion.If you have a horse you isolate,grade it.

... was most effective.

I disagree vehemently.

Listen, if I said, "My way is the most effective way..." blah, blah, blah... then I'd be guilty of misleading people. I didn't say that. I said that I really thought that was bad advice.

I did not say "Do it my way." I said "here is a simple way to do it."


I am really trying to be done here.

[raybo]

Dave,

No offense meant in my previous post, just trying to put "playability" and "profit/fun" in some sort of perspective that is acceptable for most players.

For example my latest "work" is not for most players, for sure. The fact that it has tested profitable, would not be enough for many players, nor would it be much fun for many players. It doesn't produce a high number of plays, nor a high percentage of winners, so most players will not be interested in using it. However, for those players who don't need the action, and can pass many races because things are a little "off", and don't care about the raw percentage of winners it hits, but, if making a profit is their idea of "fun", and not having to do much work, while making a profit is "fun", then the fact that it is profitable is enough to create interest.

This last group is, of course, quite small when looking at the total population of players, so I would never suggest that this program is "the way".

I don't think that we disagree very much, in our personal play, but when including all players in the mix, we obviously disagree. That's not a bad thing though, is it?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Geez, Thasky... getting sensitive here, aren't you?

Am I wrong?

[Dave Schwartz]

"Wrong" is, well, harsh.

I can tell you that the basis for all my exacta plays are modified win probabilities.

One of the pieces of programming I am working on now is to allow the "penalties" applied to the win probabilities for my non-contenders to be different for the 2nd position.

Back to "are you wrong." Probably not, because most people would not dream of making an exacta probability for each individual combination.

I would. Not only that, but I would also pick out the ones that were above a certain level of profitability and throw them into a dutch, then bet Kelly on the whole mess.

The truth is, that I could take that spreadsheet and expand it to make exacta probabilities and $Nets. With a little more tweaking, that simple spreadsheet could be saying, "Here are all the exacta combinations that you should bet."


And after that, comes trifectas. Hey, you've got the exacta payoffs, right? How hard is it to estimate what the smallest trifecta payoff will be for each exacta combination?


You know, I truly care about my fellow horseplayers. That is why I take the time to voice an opinion and then back it up like I did in this thread. Disagree if you wish, but my motives are pure here.

To that end, I will be putting out software later this year that everyone can use that will accomplish much of what I have described above.


Dave

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

Pen and paper just won't do, unless you keep it simple and very basic.

Mike (Dr Beav)

I have never questioned your motives, Dave...and I apologise if that's how it seemed.

If I appear a little testy...it is only because of comments like the one I've highlighted above.

Some of us pencil and paper guys are not ready to surrender to the computer just yet...

Our TOOLS may be primitive...but we are not.

[Capper Al]

Dave,

This is for Cincy to say or not-- this quote could be interpreted another way:

One thing that won't change,that is the most effective method of betting races is the simple old school,kindergarten teacher application of grading races.Every race morning,sit down and look at every race and grade it based on your opinion.If you have a horse you isolate,grade it.

Here's an alternate interpretation:

Grading races is Ainslie's and other's way to find the playable race. Then if you find a horse that you like (presumably within a playable race) grade it against the others in the race. If this is what Cincy meant, I could hardly imagine that you would disagree, right?

BTW, I caught your reference to the 80's. Were you talking about the trip handicapping boys? Trip handicappers went too far with liking a horse.

[Dave Schwartz]

Thaskalos,

Truthfully, I see myself as a P&P handicapper, albeit with very powerful "worksheets" in front of me. I didn't before this thread but when one is making manual selections, even using a hard-wired system, I see it as P&P.

I just use the computer to do as much of the grunt work as possible.


Al,

BTW, I caught your reference to the 80's. Were you talking about the trip handicapping boys? Trip handicappers went too far with liking a horse.

I am sorry, but if you were talking to me, I do not understand the reference. Trip handicapping is nothing I have ever considered.

[bob60566]

I feel very disapointed on the way this thread has transpired, It now seems very few people will now come forward to share there handicapping style and systems at no cost to others and enlighten the members of this site.
Was that not the point of this thread to let all people express the way to handicap and then let us all decide the value of the information to include in our own plays or discard.

Mac

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by bob60566

I feel very disapointed on the way this thread has transpired, It now seems very few people will now come forward to share there handicapping style and systems at no cost to others and enlighten the members of this site.
Was that not the point of this thread to let all people express the way to handicap and then let us all decide the value of the information to include in our own plays or discard.

Mac

I disagree.
This thread is also a poll with 155 votes and only 115 posts, many of them repeats. The OP was asking if we use a certain method, and not if we would share those methods (pen & pencil or otherwise) or angles with the whole world.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I disagree.
This thread is also a poll with 155 votes and only 115 posts, many of them repeats. The OP was asking if we use a certain method, and not if we would share those methods (pen & pencil or otherwise) or angles with the whole world.

So is it wrong to share those ideas on this thread using pen pencil /paper.
Genaral Handicapping and Dicussion

Mac

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by bob60566

I feel very disapointed on the way this thread has transpired, It now seems very few people will now come forward to share there handicapping style and systems at no cost to others and enlighten the members of this site.
Was that not the point of this thread to let all people express the way to handicap and then let us all decide the value of the information to include in our own plays or discard.

Mac

Totally agree.

Instead of an enlightened exchange of ideas, many threads degenerate into nastiness and spiteful disagreements where many choose not to take part.
~
I was always a paper and pencil guy but found the racing form online is cheaper, easier to use and can be highlighted, marked and noted w/tools provided by the reader. I use Foxit and find it particularly user friendly. I find the best part is being able to type notes and data into the form as those ideas come to mind. Fun to go back and read the notes at a later time. I still scratch my picks on a small tablet for a heads up.

[Greybase]

So about 5% or less voted "Other" ???

Let me make an educated guess, these are folks who "handicap" off Tote boards and Tip sheets ? Actually there is a pretty large group in this category. Including those who don't HAVE computers, and wouldn't know how to use one if they did... however they DO have Cable TV!! And many of the former track bums who hung around live track Mainlines, all day every day, have discovered ADW's and are now hanging around home telephone betting. I think we can assume the "Other" figure IS much larger than 5% ....

[fredking22]

Hmm..Handicapping Methods/Factors(Same thing really?)

Recent Class / Prizemoney Won And Overall
Recent Starting Price And Finishing Position
Last Starting Price And Finishing Position
Course,Distance,Condition of todays surface
Jockey
Fitness Factors(Current Prep SR(5th up,5th up SR),Trainer overall Prep SR,Horse Days since last run,Trainer SR over Distance,Trainer SR since days off)you get the picture
Todays Barrier,both course + horses own SR from barrier ranges
Pace Numbers

Hope this helps.

[fredking22]

And Weight plays a big part too, not sure about American racing though..But the main thing is to keep exploring,looking and asking yourself why this lost and this won..

Goodluck.