For no real reason, ROI to betting against Bridgejumpers

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Real rough math here, and numbers picked totally out of my rear end.

100 Bridgejumper situations
Average of 6 horses in the race OTHER than the Bridgejumper Horse
Bet $2 on each of the 6 to show

When the Bridgejumper is in the money the payout for the other horses is $2.10 each (2 horses cash)

When the Bridgejumper is out of the money the payout for the other horses is $60.00 each (3 horses cash)

So the total money spent is $1,200 ($12 per race 100 times)

When the Bridgejumper is in the money you collect a total of...
(96 x $4.20) = $403.20

When the Bridgejumper is out of the money you collect a total of...
(4 x $180.00) = $720,00

Total money collected = $1,123.20
Total money collected = $1,200,00

93.6% return

I don't normally do math in terms of $2 ROI, but I think that would come out to $187.20

The 6.4% loss is better than takeout, so not enough to make a profit.

Soooo... how could you make a profit betting against Bridgejumpers?

1) Increase your 'hit' rate to over 4%
2) Bet situations when the payout is more than $60 per show play

The problem with this is that #1 and #2 are probably different situations.

Anyhow, I'm going the other root and trying to mythically pick 20 straight Bridgejumper winners in 2010. Probably will fail, but fun to try.

If I messed up any of the actual math please tell me.
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http://bridgejumperhorses.blogspot.com

[Jeff P]

When the Bridgejumper is out of the money the payout for the other horses is $60.00 each (3 horses cash)

Betting against bridgejumper situations can be a rewarding endeavor.

However, I think you will find that net pool pricing will increase the avg show payoff in situations where the horse you are betting against finishes 3rd or better to more than $2.10... Likewise you will also find that an avg show payoff of $60.00 each when the horse you are betting against fails to finish 3rd or better might be too high... that depends on what your definition (pct of pool) of a bridgejumper situation is though.

One way to make it more workable might be to narrow your selection process down to arrive at the legitimate show contenders in the race... in other words bet fewer horses... at least that's how I approached it.

-jp

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[Phantombridgejumpe]

$1.87 not $187 and change (I think)

[OTM Al]

First, it seems that 7 horse fields may be a little large on average.
Second, in the situation you show, I think you do slightly better if you go show all. 96 times you get back the $2 plus an extra $.10 or $9.60 while only 4 times is the extra $2 lost, $8. So while a buck sixty isn't a lot, it should be considered if you are trying to maximize

[Phantombridgejumpe]

horses in the race. I don't think that is what you figured, not sure however.

[Thomas Roulston]

I've done things like this once in a while - like in the 1990 Gazelle Handicap, when I had a feeling Charon might run out of the money.

And sure enough, she did - yet trouble is, the horse I used also finished out of the money! (Pampered Star).