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Old 01-07-2019, 08:50 PM   #61
Greyfox
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
Rule of thumb:

Play 85%+ of all tracks
Play 85%+ of all races at those tracks
Play 85%+ of all pools in all races at those tracks

This is an "educated guess" I made years ago from seeing actual betting records for a single day for one group.

So, 72% of every race in North America every day.

Times have changed since then. My guess is more tracks, races, and pools today because their models are stronger.
Thanks Dave
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Old 01-07-2019, 09:06 PM   #62
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I am shocked that anyone can possibly believe the stuff I am reading in this thread.

I have to say that I'm also shocked.
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Old 01-07-2019, 09:47 PM   #63
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If you have created your racing "Program" and run it every race, you have already done the "handicapping" and are just now evaluating the results for a bet. Handicapping need not be done the day of the race.

That is precisely why I make my own pace figures - I look at at as advanced handicapping. I have to look at the races and how they were run to get a good figure, so when it come the day of the race, all that "handicapping" is already done.

I can see that volume by a serious bettor.
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Old 01-07-2019, 10:25 PM   #64
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If you have created your racing "Program" and run it every race, you have already done the "handicapping" and are just now evaluating the results for a bet. Handicapping need not be done the day of the race.

That is precisely why I make my own pace figures - I look at at as advanced handicapping. I have to look at the races and how they were run to get a good figure, so when it come the day of the race, all that "handicapping" is already done.

I can see that volume by a serious bettor.
I love this.



Tom, I bet you track your work for improvement purposes, too.
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Old 01-07-2019, 11:30 PM   #65
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How so not true. Years ago early speed was a good way to make money. Nowadays with all the info out there betting early speed is not an "easy" money maker. So you should not pay attention to how the mob bets?
Does early speed still win? If so, knock yourself out betting those juicy priced 5th place closers.
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Old 01-08-2019, 12:17 AM   #66
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In all races I play, I watch the pools and there is always a disproportionately large influx of money into the WPS pools at the last one minute of betting. Is this because

A) Whales don't want to tip their hand till its too late to catch what they bet

B) Most bettors (not Whales) bet at the last minute

C) Technological issues with the tote board catching up to the total pools.
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Old 01-08-2019, 03:10 AM   #67
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Just checked my records, win betting only I bet .28% E horses, .35% E/P horses, .37% were, P or S horses. Small profit due to 14 horse over 20-1.
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Old 01-08-2019, 07:36 AM   #68
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[/U]




That is assuming that they (or their software) are better than you are.
Oh it is........

They spend millions to make sure it is.
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Old 01-12-2019, 02:43 PM   #69
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just bet at the tracks that have the small pools, the whales can't bet enough to interest them
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Old 01-12-2019, 02:49 PM   #70
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just bet at the tracks that have the small pools, the whales can't bet enough to interest them
Simply not true, the whales bet as much as they can at any track that has high rebates and the smaller tracks have some of the highest rebates.

I've mentioned this before, but I play a lot of fantasy sports and you see the "whales" of fantasy looking for head-to-head matchups at $5000 on down to $2. They don't leave any pennies laying around.
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Old 01-12-2019, 03:41 PM   #71
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Simply not true, the whales bet as much as they can at any track that has high rebates and the smaller tracks have some of the highest rebates.

I've mentioned this before, but I play a lot of fantasy sports and you see the "whales" of fantasy looking for head-to-head matchups at $5000 on down to $2. They don't leave any pennies laying around.


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Old 01-12-2019, 03:43 PM   #72
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The minor tracks are an altogether different animal...and whoever thinks that a seamless transition can be made from the major tracks to the minors, in pursuit of "easy money", is in for a rude awakening. In the minor tracks, you either have the single-minded dedication of a Mountainman...or you are the PREY instead of the hunter.
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Old 01-14-2019, 11:39 AM   #73
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These types of threads are what still make this forum great.
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Old 01-14-2019, 01:22 PM   #74
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There were three of us who used to sit together and compare handicapping at Arapahoe Park. There was a time when the racing was fertile, and there were days when the three of us were 2-3% of the handle. Basically we overwhelmed the smaller bettors. We estimated there weren't more than 50 people betting at least $100 a day. The average Arapahoe Park bettor was pushing about $56 a day through the windows. In my time at Arapahoe I can remember only a small handful of bridge jumpers, and no noticeable whales. Of course, Arapahoe isn't what it used to be, in my opinion due to bad management and small fields. I rarely go now, instead focusing on the NY tracks. I'll have to admit my enthusiasm for horse racing waxes and wanes through the year.
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:00 PM   #75
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The minor tracks are an altogether different animal...and whoever thinks that a seamless transition can be made from the major tracks to the minors, in pursuit of "easy money", is in for a rude awakening. In the minor tracks, you either have the single-minded dedication of a Mountainman...or you are the PREY instead of the hunter.
I have limited experience playing the northern California fair circuit because I like betting the mule races. The biggest challenge there is that the pools are so ridiculously small at times, you have almost no idea what price you are getting. You can't even look at the Will Pays or other exotics for a clue. They often don't end up in sync. That's telling you that there's value, you just don't know where it's going to end up being.
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