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01-07-2019, 08:50 PM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 18,962
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Rule of thumb:
Play 85%+ of all tracks
Play 85%+ of all races at those tracks
Play 85%+ of all pools in all races at those tracks
This is an "educated guess" I made years ago from seeing actual betting records for a single day for one group.
So, 72% of every race in North America every day.
Times have changed since then. My guess is more tracks, races, and pools today because their models are stronger.
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Thanks Dave
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01-07-2019, 09:06 PM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I am shocked that anyone can possibly believe the stuff I am reading in this thread.
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I have to say that I'm also shocked.
__________________
"God hath written the language of the Universe in Mathematics" - Galileo
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01-07-2019, 09:47 PM
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#63
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,470
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If you have created your racing "Program" and run it every race, you have already done the "handicapping" and are just now evaluating the results for a bet. Handicapping need not be done the day of the race.
That is precisely why I make my own pace figures - I look at at as advanced handicapping. I have to look at the races and how they were run to get a good figure, so when it come the day of the race, all that "handicapping" is already done.
I can see that volume by a serious bettor.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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01-07-2019, 10:25 PM
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#64
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,877
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
If you have created your racing "Program" and run it every race, you have already done the "handicapping" and are just now evaluating the results for a bet. Handicapping need not be done the day of the race.
That is precisely why I make my own pace figures - I look at at as advanced handicapping. I have to look at the races and how they were run to get a good figure, so when it come the day of the race, all that "handicapping" is already done.
I can see that volume by a serious bettor.
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I love this.
Tom, I bet you track your work for improvement purposes, too.
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01-07-2019, 11:30 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasone
How so not true. Years ago early speed was a good way to make money. Nowadays with all the info out there betting early speed is not an "easy" money maker. So you should not pay attention to how the mob bets?
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Does early speed still win? If so, knock yourself out betting those juicy priced 5th place closers.
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01-08-2019, 12:17 AM
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#66
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Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,139
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In all races I play, I watch the pools and there is always a disproportionately large influx of money into the WPS pools at the last one minute of betting. Is this because
A) Whales don't want to tip their hand till its too late to catch what they bet
B) Most bettors (not Whales) bet at the last minute
C) Technological issues with the tote board catching up to the total pools.
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01-08-2019, 03:10 AM
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#67
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
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Just checked my records, win betting only I bet .28% E horses, .35% E/P horses, .37% were, P or S horses. Small profit due to 14 horse over 20-1.
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01-08-2019, 07:36 AM
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#68
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,617
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
[/U]
That is assuming that they (or their software) are better than you are.
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Oh it is........
They spend millions to make sure it is.
__________________
WE ARE THE DUMBEST COUNTRY ON THE PLANET!
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01-12-2019, 02:43 PM
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#69
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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just bet at the tracks that have the small pools, the whales can't bet enough to interest them
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01-12-2019, 02:49 PM
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#70
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,817
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
just bet at the tracks that have the small pools, the whales can't bet enough to interest them
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Simply not true, the whales bet as much as they can at any track that has high rebates and the smaller tracks have some of the highest rebates.
I've mentioned this before, but I play a lot of fantasy sports and you see the "whales" of fantasy looking for head-to-head matchups at $5000 on down to $2. They don't leave any pennies laying around.
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01-12-2019, 03:41 PM
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#71
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,877
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
Simply not true, the whales bet as much as they can at any track that has high rebates and the smaller tracks have some of the highest rebates.
I've mentioned this before, but I play a lot of fantasy sports and you see the "whales" of fantasy looking for head-to-head matchups at $5000 on down to $2. They don't leave any pennies laying around.
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A guy who gets it!
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01-12-2019, 03:43 PM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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The minor tracks are an altogether different animal...and whoever thinks that a seamless transition can be made from the major tracks to the minors, in pursuit of "easy money", is in for a rude awakening. In the minor tracks, you either have the single-minded dedication of a Mountainman...or you are the PREY instead of the hunter.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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01-14-2019, 11:39 AM
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#73
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,183
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These types of threads are what still make this forum great.
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01-14-2019, 01:22 PM
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#74
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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There were three of us who used to sit together and compare handicapping at Arapahoe Park. There was a time when the racing was fertile, and there were days when the three of us were 2-3% of the handle. Basically we overwhelmed the smaller bettors. We estimated there weren't more than 50 people betting at least $100 a day. The average Arapahoe Park bettor was pushing about $56 a day through the windows. In my time at Arapahoe I can remember only a small handful of bridge jumpers, and no noticeable whales. Of course, Arapahoe isn't what it used to be, in my opinion due to bad management and small fields. I rarely go now, instead focusing on the NY tracks. I'll have to admit my enthusiasm for horse racing waxes and wanes through the year.
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01-14-2019, 03:00 PM
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#75
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
The minor tracks are an altogether different animal...and whoever thinks that a seamless transition can be made from the major tracks to the minors, in pursuit of "easy money", is in for a rude awakening. In the minor tracks, you either have the single-minded dedication of a Mountainman...or you are the PREY instead of the hunter.
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I have limited experience playing the northern California fair circuit because I like betting the mule races. The biggest challenge there is that the pools are so ridiculously small at times, you have almost no idea what price you are getting. You can't even look at the Will Pays or other exotics for a clue. They often don't end up in sync. That's telling you that there's value, you just don't know where it's going to end up being.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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