Value

[JM98]

Im from the UK, we have fixed odds therefore we know what price we are getting on a selection. In the US how can you be confident youre getting value on a selections as the tote is sometimes very weak? or is there fixed odds betting in the us?

[Jack950]

Originally Posted by JM98

Im from the UK, we have fixed odds therefore we know what price we are getting on a selection. In the US how can you be confident youre getting value on a selections as the tote is sometimes very weak? or is there fixed odds betting in the us?

If you live in New Jersey think you can use Bet Fair and get fixed odds if you so choose. Other than that some offshore shops might offer it. That's about it as for what I know.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by JM98

Im from the UK, we have fixed odds therefore we know what price we are getting on a selection. In the US how can you be confident youre getting value on a selections as the tote is sometimes very weak? or is there fixed odds betting in the us?

In cases where you can't make a conservative low-odds estimate for a horse, you simply pass the race.

It's just markets... most of the action is predictable.

[JM98]

i wasnt aware betfair was available in any states, over in the uk all our prices are based off betfair. I was just thinking to make money you have to be a price dependant punter, which seems hard when betting on the tote.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by JM98

i wasnt aware betfair was available in any states, over in the uk all our prices are based off betfair. I was just thinking to make money you have to be a price dependant punter, which seems hard when betting on the tote.

Yes, there are many threads here complaining about the odds changing late, so it is a persistent problem. It's something you either learn to predict and/or live with or you get out of the game.

Here in New Jersey we can use Betfair, but we're just one state and not many U.S. tracks are offered.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by JM98

In the US how can you be confident youre getting value on a selections as the tote is sometimes very weak?

I try to focus on horses that I think I know something about that the public is likely to miss or misunderstand. If you do a good job of that, you can practically bet blind and assume you'll get a decent price. Of course I rarely bet blind because I do want to the see the prices, but that's more or less the goal.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by JM98

Im from the UK, we have fixed odds therefore we know what price we are getting on a selection. In the US how can you be confident youre getting value on a selections as the tote is sometimes very weak? or is there fixed odds betting in the us?

Personally, I prefer the dynamics of pari-mutuel wagering rather than being stuck with a “fixed” price return.

There are a few things to consider about your selected entry in a pari-mutuel scheme.
1) Are the initial and closing odds (at perhaps 3 mins to post) value there? If not pass the race.

2) As the odds on the betting choices drop, the odds on all the other entries will rise. If your selection is among them there’s plenty of value to be scored. This won’t happen in a “fixed odds” scenario.

3) Very often there are significant changes in the overall tote picture leading one to believe that there might be an outstanding play based on the tote fluctuations among certain entries. So, substituting your original pick with another entry that’s getting solid action can be very rewarding.

[therussmeister]

I've noticed if you look at the win vs. show pools at about two minutes to post this will frequently give an indication of late odds movement.

Example: A horse that has 15% of the win pool and 28% of the show pool usually takes a lot of late money with its win bets ending closer to 28% of the win pool.

I'm not a win bettor so I might not be as observant about this as others. I'm looking at the show pools because I believe, but cannot prove, the show bets give me an indication of how strongly a horse is bet in trifecta and superfecta pools.

[AltonKelsey]

You contradict yourself at every turn



How can 1 and 2 both be true ?



3 allows someone to claim they had the winner after the fact.

Originally Posted by Nitro

Personally, I prefer the dynamics of pari-mutuel wagering rather than being stuck with a “fixed” price return.

There are a few things to consider about your selected entry in a pari-mutuel scheme.
1) Are the initial and closing odds (at perhaps 3 mins to post) value there? If not pass the race.

2) As the odds on the betting choices drop, the odds on all the other entries will rise. If your selection is among them there’s plenty of value to be scored. This won’t happen in a “fixed odds” scenario.

3) Very often there are significant changes in the overall tote picture leading one to believe that there might be an outstanding play based on the tote fluctuations among certain entries. So, substituting your original pick with another entry that’s getting solid action can be very rewarding.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

You contradict yourself at every turn

How can 1 and 2 both be true ?

3 allows someone to claim they had the winner after the fact.

Even those with limited intelligence would recognize that EACH of the 3 items I mentioned to consider in a pari-mutuel game are unique individual situations that are completely independent of one another.

Item 3 simply offers an opportunity to change your mind based on viewing tote activities.

It’s just a shame that this sort of stuff has to even be explained.

[MJC922]

With fixed odds you're 100% assured of betting on an overlay vs your own line. However, here in the US my personal testing showed that 40% will go off literally as underlays vs. my line when betting conditional wagering at 0 MTP. The 40% underlay stat virtually assures losses IMO. In fact I have zero evidence the game is beatable (for me) today. I had plenty of evidence years ago, I lived it.

Now if you pay your way into the late odds feed, i.e. if you pay into that scam so you can bet after almost everyone else does, then you can join the ranks of the few modern players who are winning off their rebates with break-even play.

With that being said I have very little doubt there are off the grid and innovative tidbits of info around, obscure factors that pop up only once in a great while. These factors will carry inherent value all on their own and could allow a handicapper to show a profit long-term without considering the odds. I suspect those tidbits of information require much more digging and such keen observation that few would consider the returns worthwhile given how rarely these kinds of factors will be decisive. It would amount to playing not so much for a living but to prove winning straight up is still possible. IMO there are far better things to do with my time these days.

I'd much rather stay out for now and let the whole rebated thing implode on itself until fixed odds finally come around. It's a wonderful sport, across the pond...

[AltonKelsey]

"It's a wonderful sport, across the pond... "


They complain plenty about being shut off and fees. Grass is always greener




Nitro loves to say I don't get his amazing record, but never offers the slightest hint at what he is actually looking for.





Claiming to analyze the board looking for information is about as revealing as saying 'I look at the horses before the race' . Pretty much worthless.



It so happens I am more than conversant with the tote, so claims of magical powers don't impress me.




His HK picks do contain the winner with some frequency, BUT he also picks 5-6 horses a race and uses chalk heavily. If you always pick among the top contenders , sure the winner will be in there plenty. Hard to make any money that way, sadly.



Show me a workout of all the plays BEFORE the fact, q's tri's , and the roi. Then we can talk.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

.
Nitro loves to say I don't get his amazing record, but never offers the slightest hint at what he is actually looking for.

Claiming to analyze the board looking for information is about as revealing as saying 'I look at the horses before the race' . Pretty much worthless.

It so happens I am more than conversant with the tote, so claims of magical powers don't impress me.

His HK picks do contain the winner with some frequency, BUT he also picks 5-6 horses a race and uses chalk heavily. If you always pick among the top contenders , sure the winner will be in there plenty. Hard to make any money that way, sadly.

Show me a workout of all the plays BEFORE the fact, q's tri's , and the roi. Then we can talk.

Obviously you’ve got a serious problem with your memory. I’ve suspected for some time that skeptical and irritated mind of yours finds convenient ways to ignore reality and factual information. In order to once again rebuke your silly comments I offer the following:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...147165&page=53

Post #791 – Shows my typical prelude to a day of racing in HK providing the preliminary selections and how they can be used for betting.

Posts #792 & 793 – Provide some key information related to actual tote analyses and how these analyses generate the entries of primary interest.

Post #795 - Points out the results of my 3-entry Dutching method by indicating the overall profit margins for both Sha Tin and Happy Valley. All of the selections for the results of these Dutch plays were posted BEFORE the races were run.

You may not understand the tote analysis information, but the overall Dutching results obviously stand on their own merit. As far as I’m concerned any method that can consistently produce an overall profit margin of 45% is a Winner.

Some people just don't get it!

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by Nitro

As far as I’m concerned any method that can consistently produce an overall profit margin of 45% is a Winner.

Some people just don't get it!

If that was even remotely true ,you would be the best player that ever lived and be a billionaire by now



Something doesn't add up

[Frost king]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

If that was even remotely true ,you would be the best player that ever lived and be a billionaire by now



Something doesn't add up

Have to agree with you. The Hong Kong races would be like his own private ATM machine. If I had figured it out like Nitro, I certainly wouldn’t be spreading out the word. Like you said, it just doesn’t add up.