2019-2020 NBA thread

[cj]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

OKC has a better shot than Miami, even without Westbrook....Miami as no shot.

I agree, but Riley has never been a rebuild kind of guy and maybe they want to get Butler some help. They are doomed anyway with him as their "best" player.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by cj

Paul isn't going to stay. He'll be moved, maybe to Miami.

If that were as easily done as said, this would have been a three-team deal and Paul would already be in Miami. Of course Paul wants out of OKC, and the Thunder seem eager to accomodate him, but his contract is really ugly at this point -- maybe the worst in the NBA next to John Wall's. The deals I'm seeing -- e.g. Paul for Dragic and Waiters -- would mean basically a semi-tank for OKC. Also, even if Presti accepts something like this (which I doubt) Paul and Butler is a match made in hell -- can't believe Riley doesn't think this. Don't see how this works out for OKC unlesss they decide not to trade Paul, which I'm sure won't be the final outcome.

[Robert Fischer]

Paul is done.


Cousins looking 'lean'... Says his quad is 100% ...

Sometimes it's not necessarily great when a player slims down, but apparently he is in decent shape for a guy who has had weight issues in the past.

Question I have is who are there 3[point shooters?

Rondo is an old-school PG
LeBron is LeBron...
AD
Cousins getting a fair amount of minutes with a big lineup...

Awesome lineup but this isn't the 90's

they added Danny Green, quinn cook, and they have KCP, and Avery Bradley ... seems like a bunch of half-decent shooters...

I think they're Favored now in the books

Steelers are still long shots, last time I looked Cleveland actually had lower odds for both AFC and Super Bowl...

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Rondo re-signs, Demarcus Cousins to Lakers

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I think they're Favored now in the books

Co- favorites with the.....wait for it--------> CLIPPERS

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Co- favorites with the.....wait for it--------> CLIPPERS

Hard to believe. ... Even if you 'like' a team now, these futures are usually all bad bets

[cj]

Originally Posted by lansdale

If that were as easily done as said, this would have been a three-team deal and Paul would already be in Miami. Of course Paul wants out of OKC, and the Thunder seem eager to accomodate him, but his contract is really ugly at this point -- maybe the worst in the NBA next to John Wall's. The deals I'm seeing -- e.g. Paul for Dragic and Waiters -- would mean basically a semi-tank for OKC. Also, even if Presti accepts something like this (which I doubt) Paul and Butler is a match made in hell -- can't believe Riley doesn't think this. Don't see how this works out for OKC unlesss they decide not to trade Paul, which I'm sure won't be the final outcome.

That is the point, they are going to tank. Having Paul will only stunt Gilgeous-Alexander's development as well. Someone will take Paul, even if it means OKC having to give up a few of the draft picks they have acquired. They can never use them all anyway.

[tophatmert]

Originally Posted by lansdale

If that were as easily done as said, this would have been a three-team deal and Paul would already be in Miami. Of course Paul wants out of OKC, and the Thunder seem eager to accomodate him, but his contract is really ugly at this point -- maybe the worst in the NBA next to John Wall's. The deals I'm seeing -- e.g. Paul for Dragic and Waiters -- would mean basically a semi-tank for OKC. Also, even if Presti accepts something like this (which I doubt) Paul and Butler is a match made in hell -- can't believe Riley doesn't think this. Don't see how this works out for OKC unlesss they decide not to trade Paul, which I'm sure won't be the final outcome.

Butler and anybody may be a match made in hell.

[lansdale]

Since the season begins next week, maybe some interest in this. Looks like at least a few major mistakes.


http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/1976661

[lansdale]

NBA Title: L.A. Clippers
MVP: Giannis
ROY: Zion

Clips an underlaid second choice at +350 behind Lakers -- who won't be there, imho. Going to be a very crazy year in the west. Houston looks undervalued at +850, and definitely Harden, @8-1 for MVP. Zion a no-brainer, but appears to be a serious overlay at current -130.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lansdale

NBA Title: L.A. Clippers
MVP: Giannis
ROY: Zion

Clips an underlaid second choice at +350 behind Lakers -- who won't be there, imho. Going to be a very crazy year in the west. Houston looks undervalued at +850, and definitely Harden, @8-1 for MVP. Zion a no-brainer, but appears to be a serious overlay at current -130.

GL

That Zion 'ROY' line almost seems to-good-to-be-true.

What's the catch?


Giannis is at the very least a legit favorite/contender as well. Team should be decent, and he's an amazing entertainer and a league feature (on top of being a very nice player).


Already said I am rooting for LA (lakers ) , but Cousins was a complete 'dud'... Cousins' injury somewhat mitigated by signing of Dwight Howard who has lost a step, seems mentally slow, and comes in with a bad rep and lots of miles... More 'fun' of a fan add for me than a + value, but I'm still rooting for him to show some back-class.

Bad luck with the Anthony Davis thumb injury. Could be nothing, and he could go a full season in great health, but injury concerns with this and in general are real...

All that - and the team has to find some chemistry and effort to reach their 'potential' paper form... More and more like a bad bet.
Could even get ugly.
I'm gonna root for them to beat your Clippers (playoff advancement).

Clippers look tough.


If a couple of these 'Big' teams don't fire (lake, clips...); Possibly more parity than on paper. Perhaps. Potentially... ok
Golden State looks like an underlay, but in the above scenario they would obv. benefit Pacific div... Curry and coaching...

76ers are a fun team, but I don't see them rising above the crowd.

so I make my way further down to some longer odds...

How crazy is the Boston Celtics??
25/1 is probably an underlay , but it's still 25/1
I was really surprised when I went back and looked at Kemba's stats. He's matured as a 3pt shooter, from what I remembered college/rookie...
Crowd is going to absolutely love Gordan Hayward in a big market.
Brad Stevens and co. are decent coaches...

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

GL

That Zion 'ROY' line almost seems to-good-to-be-true.

What's the catch?


Giannis is at the very least a legit favorite/contender as well. Team should be decent, and he's an amazing entertainer and a league feature (on top of being a very nice player).


Already said I am rooting for LA (lakers ) , but Cousins was a complete 'dud'... Cousins' injury somewhat mitigated by signing of Dwight Howard who has lost a step, seems mentally slow, and comes in with a bad rep and lots of miles... More 'fun' of a fan add for me than a + value, but I'm still rooting for him to show some back-class.

Bad luck with the Anthony Davis thumb injury. Could be nothing, and he could go a full season in great health, but injury concerns with this and in general are real...

All that - and the team has to find some chemistry and effort to reach their 'potential' paper form... More and more like a bad bet.
Could even get ugly.
I'm gonna root for them to beat your Clippers (playoff advancement).

Clippers look tough.


If a couple of these 'Big' teams don't fire (lake, clips...); Possibly more parity than on paper. Perhaps. Potentially... ok
Golden State looks like an underlay, but in the above scenario they would obv. benefit Pacific div... Curry and coaching...

76ers are a fun team, but I don't see them rising above the crowd.

so I make my way further down to some longer odds...

How crazy is the Boston Celtics??
25/1 is probably an underlay , but it's still 25/1
I was really surprised when I went back and looked at Kemba's stats. He's matured as a 3pt shooter, from what I remembered college/rookie...
Crowd is going to absolutely love Gordan Hayward in a big market.
Brad Stevens and co. are decent coaches...

Hi RF,

Re Zion, I think his missing summer league due to injury is probably a factor in his current odds, but with the way he's been dominating in the preseason so far, think they'll be dropping sharply after the first month or so of the season. Check this from Nate Silver's site:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-are-historic/

Granted this is still only preseason, he mopped the floor with defensive stud Rudy Gobert the other night. Assuming he doesn't suffer a serious injury during the course of the season, this is as close to free money as it gets. If you want to hedge, dutch him with Ja Morant.

Re Lakers, most relevant stat to me is LBJ turning 36 at the new year -- guessing that he'll possibly miss a number of games due to injury, as he did last year. Even if not, although he is amazing for his age, he's still well below his prime at this point, not a top ten player, and no match for Kawhi, PG, Giannis, or others he'll have to deal with in the postseason. AD is surely great, McGee is solid at center, and DG an above-average defender, but Kuzma and Bradley are mediocre players, Rondo can't score or defend, and it remains to be seen what vets like Cousins and Howard can contribute, coming off multiple injuries -- DH only played nine games last year. This array doesn't spell championship to me.

Agree with you re Sixers -- losing Butler and Reddick is huge and, imho, puts them clearly behind the Bucks to take the east. Not sure what you see in Boston -- their best player Kemba, is barely top ten and they would need at least one more guy like that to have a shot -- I put them a few games behind Sixers.

In the west, I put the Clips a notch above Lakers, but with Houston between them -- getting close to the last round-up for Harden and WB and I believe they'll be motivated. I see Clips and Rockets in the ECF. Utah is a question mark, but could also slip into the ECF with a little improvement. In all, I don't see that much daylight between these four teams, so west playoffs should, again, be great.

Treating GSW as a wildcard, since they'll likely be trading D. Russell for a wing at some point and nobody knows the condition of K. Thompson upon his return.
Probably won't have a good take on this until March.

10/22 season opens with Lakers/Clips -- Clips -1. I'll be watching.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lansdale

Hi RF,
...
Check this from Nate Silver's site:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-are-historic/
...
Not sure what you see in Boston

Zion is looking like Wilt Chamberlain thus far .

Good call on Houston.

Go Lakers
Boston Celtics OVER 48.5 Wins -120

[CheckMark]

NBA Plays of the Day 10/22/19

LAC@LAL LAL 5 units (system play)
NO@TOR TOR 50 units (whale)

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

NBA Plays of the Day 10/22/19

LAC@LAL LAL 5 units (system play)
NO@TOR TOR 50 units (whale)

LAL LOSS, -5 units
TOR WIN, +51 units

System Plays Season: 0-1 -5u
Whale Plays Season 1-0 +51u

[CheckMark]

NBA Plays Of The Day 10/23/19

CLE@ORL ORL 5 units (system play)
NYN@SA SA 50 units (Whale play)