Value

[Half Smoke]

I don't fool myself into believing I can create a true odds line
I know I can't



the only way I can identify an overlay is by using the English language



i.e. - he's one of the 3 best in the race and he has a pretty decent chance of winning and they're letting him go off at 5/1- looks like a good bet

or: they basically considered him out of contention at 8/1 and he's not - he can contend for the win - probably a good bet

or: he's almost a sure winner unless there's a mishap - bumping or a hidden injury and he's being let go at 9/5 - probably a good bet


I'm curious:


does anybody think it's possible to say that a horse shouldn't be 7/1 - he should be 6/1.............?


or a horse shouldn't be 14/1 - he should be 12/1................?


seems impossible to me

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

I'm curious:

does anybody think it's possible to say that a horse shouldn't be 7/1 - he should be 6/1.............?

or a horse shouldn't be 14/1 - he should be 12/1................?

seems impossible to me

It is easy to SAY but more difficult to PROVE.

In today's era, you must add to the equation PREDICTING what the final odds will be.

Between those two issues, creating an oddsline and betting into the tote board is pretty much a recipe for failure.

[Half Smoke]

............................



I would disagree with anyone who says that because of technology, or better speed figures or smarter players or whatever that it's very difficult to find overlays.


not IMO


what is still see a lot of is overbet favorites - it seems quite common


of course, figuring out how you want to bet against the false favorite is the really challenging thing

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

It is easy to SAY but more difficult to PROVE.

In today's era, you must add to the equation PREDICTING what the final odds will be.

Between those two issues, creating an oddsline and betting into the tote board is pretty much a recipe for failure.

These sort of comments are all relative based on the track and the size of the betting pools. As the pari-mutuel pool sizes increase the resulting odds become much more stable. So, predicting finals odds can become less of a chore and more accurate.

I’m assuming that most people that attempt to create an odds-line base their resulting line on a subjective interpretation of the past performance data. Anything that’s viewed from the tote in the live betting pools is as far as I’m concerned current and objective information. Using both of these together would be counter-productive because the biased information is being combined and often compared with factual information.
.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

I don't fool myself into believing I can create a true odds line
I know I can't



the only way I can identify an overlay is by using the English language



i.e. - he's one of the 3 best in the race and he has a pretty decent chance of winning and they're letting him go off at 5/1- looks like a good bet

or: they basically considered him out of contention at 8/1 and he's not - he can contend for the win - probably a good bet

or: he's almost a sure winner unless there's a mishap - bumping or a hidden injury and he's being let go at 9/5 - probably a good bet


I'm curious:


does anybody think it's possible to say that a horse shouldn't be 7/1 - he should be 6/1.............?


or a horse shouldn't be 14/1 - he should be 12/1................?


seems impossible to me

yes.

[Robert Fischer]

you need 'significantly mispriced' horses not one odds tick...
even if it were possible to be that precise (which is seldom/never the case)


you do business with the odds.

the odds are like a guy.

the guy's name is Mr. Public.

Mr. Public is a manic-depressive.

Mr. Public comes to you every race of every day and offers you a price which you may either pass or bet.

You always pass, unless he offers you a foolish price on a situation where you are competent.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

you need 'significantly mispriced' horses not one odds tick...
even if it were possible to be that precise (which is seldom/never the case)

you do business with the odds.

the odds are like a guy.

the guy's name is Mr. Public.

Mr. Public is a manic-depressive.

Mr. Public comes to you every race of every day and offers you a price which you may either pass or bet.

You always pass, unless he offers you a foolish price on a situation where you are competent.

Using the generic term “Public” to describe the betting population is a total misnomer. Let’s not kid ourselves into believing that there aren’t more informed and influential people participating in all the daily betting activities. Very often this group has a lot more at stake than a $50. Bet. Monitoring the tote for any biased activities can often lead to a rewarding outcome.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Using the generic term “Public” to describe the betting population is a total misnomer. Let’s not kid ourselves into believing that there aren’t more informed and influential people participating in all the daily betting activities. Very often this group has a lot more at stake than a $50. Bet. Monitoring the tote for any biased activities can often lead to a rewarding outcome.

Public is purely a synonym for the final market price.

It includes the $2 bettor and the $2Milion dollar CAW bettor, and the guys and programs that monitor the tote.

feel free to change the name of "Mr. Public"


The point of what I wrote is the metaphor, not the word choice.


plenty of abundance and room for both metaphors and guys or programs who monitor the tote.

[formula_2002]

After down loading thousands and thousands of live tote boards of wps and exacts within a general range of 1 to 4 minuets to post and analyzing same over many many years, sadly I have noting of value to add to this conversation

(then again, perhaps that is the value)

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Public is purely a synonym for the final market price.

It includes the $2 bettor and the $2Milion dollar CAW bettor, and the guys and programs that monitor the tote.

feel free to change the name of "Mr. Public"

The point of what I wrote is the metaphor, not the word choice.

plenty of abundance and room for both metaphors and guys or programs who monitor the tote.

Don’t take it personally, but seeing or hearing the word “public” being used to describe the overall betting population is one of my pet peeves. Its use can certainly diminish the level of the players that may be involved at any given time. The talking heads on all of the horse racing programs use that term repeatedly. I think it’s a subliminal way of affecting the mindset of player’s at various betting levels. It could very well make them feel equal to their competition in terms of both their selection and betting prowess.

[AltonKelsey]

For a change I agree with Nitro, calling it 'the public' implies that the great mass of bettors somehow are able to divine the odds better than a single player.



Where in fact, its the 1% or 2% betting serious money that determine the final odds, for better or worse. They are often wrong.



Still , I want some of that 45% roi action, I have 10k Id like to turn in to 2 million in the next few weeks.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

I have 10k Id like to turn in to 2 million in the next few weeks.

I have 10K I'm trying not to turn in 9k.

Seriously, I've been through phases where I've ranked the horses in order of preference and looked for misranked horses, tried to assign actual probabilities, tried to focus on horses I thought I had an insight about that might not be shared widely, and various combinations of the above. I'm not sure any of it works as well as handicapping a race, having a general view without being too precise, looking at the odds, and only betting if something is screaming at you.

Usually, if I have a play it's because I have a specific disagreement with prevailing wisdom about a horse/race.

[GMB@BP]

I dont believe in using value to make bets in everyday playing of the races. Its a once in a while thing but not everyday. Not sure its even possible to play that way with CRW teams.

Form an opinion and try to capitalize on that opinion through the multitude of betting options.