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07-04-2018, 04:52 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 47
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Breaking a tie with points ranking spreadsheet handicapping
I recently created a simple spreadsheet to better organize my handicapping process. I use a ranking system based on points similar to this one by Derek Johnson at US Racing, but I use a few more factors, some of which are different than what he uses.
Problem is what to do when horses are tied in their points total. Derek suggests a formula for when this occurs, but I don't understand it. So far I've just been taking a closer look at how each one scored in each factor to see if one shines a little more in the factors I consider most important. But this sort of defeats one of my main objectives in using a spreadsheet, which is to save time.
Any suggestions for breaking ties would be most appreciated!
Last edited by Gasser57; 07-04-2018 at 04:53 PM.
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07-04-2018, 05:12 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gasser57
I recently created a simple spreadsheet to better organize my handicapping process. I use a ranking system based on points similar to this one by Derek Johnson at US Racing, but I use a few more factors, some of which are different than what he uses.
Problem is what to do when horses are tied in their points total. Derek suggests a formula for when this occurs, but I don't understand it. So far I've just been taking a closer look at how each one scored in each factor to see if one shines a little more in the factors I consider most important. But this sort of defeats one of my main objectives in using a spreadsheet, which is to save time.
Any suggestions for breaking ties would be most appreciated!
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Why do you need to break a tie?
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07-04-2018, 05:26 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,611
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How about letting the odds-board break the tie for you? Wouldn't the higher-odds horse be the logically better choice?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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07-04-2018, 05:55 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
How about letting the odds-board break the tie for you? Wouldn't the higher-odds horse be the logically better choice?
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Perfect- thanks! That's one of those smack your head "I coulda had a V8" ideas.
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07-04-2018, 06:15 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
Why do you need to break a tie?
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Good point. Some races I'd just play both. But for competitive races with shorter prices I'd pick one to keep wagering costs down.
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07-04-2018, 06:40 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gasser57
Good point. Some races I'd just play both. But for competitive races with shorter prices I'd pick one to keep wagering costs down.
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I, too, would play the higher odds horse until such time that you have adequate data that might indicate the opposite play.
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07-04-2018, 10:15 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
I, too, would play the higher odds horse until such time that you have adequate data that might indicate the opposite play.
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Yes, it seems like a "well, duh!" solution to a issue I had just assumed couldn't be so simple.
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07-04-2018, 11:08 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,137
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Yes the odds. Improvement factors in their last 2 races also.
From Los Al race #8
1... 1838... 0.991
2... 1878... 3.491
3... 1857... 0.491
4... 1805... -3.343
5... 1872... .241
6... 1855... 2.241
7... 1863... .407
8... 1832... 2.259
9... 1722... -9.259
The first column is points, the second column is improvement. The 2 came in with the highest points and improvement factor. The 6, 7, and 8 also rank high here. Finished 2,6,7,8. When the odds are higher and improvement is more likely, the bet becomes clear. 2 paid $9.60.
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07-05-2018, 08:14 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Yes the odds. Improvement factors in their last 2 races also.
From Los Al race #8
1... 1838... 0.991
2... 1878... 3.491
3... 1857... 0.491
4... 1805... -3.343
5... 1872... .241
6... 1855... 2.241
7... 1863... .407
8... 1832... 2.259
9... 1722... -9.259
The first column is points, the second column is improvement. The 2 came in with the highest points and improvement factor. The 6, 7, and 8 also rank high here. Finished 2,6,7,8. When the odds are higher and improvement is more likely, the bet becomes clear. 2 paid $9.60.
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Thanks - makes sense to consider recent improvement. I’ll definitely use that too.
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07-05-2018, 01:30 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 4,163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gasser57
I recently created a simple spreadsheet to better organize my handicapping process. I use a ranking system based on points similar to this one by Derek Johnson at US Racing, but I use a few more factors, some of which are different than what he uses.
Problem is what to do when horses are tied in their points total. Derek suggests a formula for when this occurs, but I don't understand it. So far I've just been taking a closer look at how each one scored in each factor to see if one shines a little more in the factors I consider most important. But this sort of defeats one of my main objectives in using a spreadsheet, which is to save time.
Any suggestions for breaking ties would be most appreciated!
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Bet the horse with the higher odds.
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07-05-2018, 02:14 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gasser57
I recently created a simple spreadsheet to better organize my handicapping process. I use a ranking system based on points similar to this one by Derek Johnson at US Racing, but I use a few more factors, some of which are different than what he uses.
Problem is what to do when horses are tied in their points total. Derek suggests a formula for when this occurs, but I don't understand it. So far I've just been taking a closer look at how each one scored in each factor to see if one shines a little more in the factors I consider most important. But this sort of defeats one of my main objectives in using a spreadsheet, which is to save time.
Any suggestions for breaking ties would be most appreciated!
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Gasser, I believe Derek Simon was referring to the individual factors ranking.
# - SR -Ranking
1 - 93 - 4
2 - 99 - 3
3 - 95 - 4
4 - 102(rev)-1.5
5 - 95 - 4
6 - 98 - 4
7 - 102 - 1.5 (Tied with #4 for the 1 ranking)
In the above example there is no #2 ranking, since both 4 & 7 use the first two positions.
Of course in his own example under Win %, he did just the opposite. two horses have 23.1% Win rate, so he gave them both a 2 ranking, and then skips to the 4 ranking. So he didn't follow his own advice and use 2.5
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One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 07-05-2018 at 02:17 PM.
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07-05-2018, 04:33 PM
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#12
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 113,075
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Not to go too far off stream but two questions -
1. Would it be better to use a Fibonacci rating instead of 1,2,3,4?
(10-7-4-1?)
2. Speaking of Derek Simon, I came across a pace rating method he developed and used on the Derby a few years ago - anyone familiar with it? I have been looking for more details, but no luck so far.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-06-2018, 08:33 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Not to go too far off stream but two questions -
1. Would it be better to use a Fibonacci rating instead of 1,2,3,4?
(10-7-4-1?)
2. Speaking of Derek Simon, I came across a pace rating method he developed and used on the Derby a few years ago - anyone familiar with it? I have been looking for more details, but no luck so far.
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1. Probably not a bad idea, but what Fibon. sequence is that? Looks more like Pascal's triangle on steroids.
2. I actually tried to email Derek on that US Racing site, but they had a long registration form including my phone number and physical address, so it halted my registering. Guess he's not on twitter, unless you get on the site.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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07-06-2018, 11:18 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,957
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
1. Probably not a bad idea, but what Fibon. sequence is that? Looks more like Pascal's triangle on steroids.
2. I actually tried to email Derek on that US Racing site, but they had a long registration form including my phone number and physical address, so it halted my registering. Guess he's not on twitter, unless you get on the site.
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His Twitter handle is @Valuewagering
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07-06-2018, 01:21 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 318
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fibonacci
use a Fibonacci rating works
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