Last Race Finish ?

[Flysofree]

In creating Power figures from a horses last 3 races, what is the general consensus as to which race finish should be awarded the most points? I have read a theory from Quick Horse that says the last race is awarded the fewer points as it's felt the horse used the most energy and won't be able to reproduce that figure today. They were comparing that to the way in which Bris makes the figure in the opposite manner. I believe that was my understanding from reading the article a couple of weeks ago.

I know there are numerous factors to consider in which of the last 3 races may hold "the key", if there is such a thing to today. But what do readers here think? All opinions appreciated.

[Some_One]

Looking at the data I have of a test I'm currently running, it appears in a vacuum, a horse that won last out does have a better record then horses who did not win last out, but there isn't much of a difference between the two sets of data when you compare their win rate versus expected win rate (avg odds).

[Flysofree]

Originally Posted by Some_One

Looking at the data I have of a test I'm currently running, it appears in a vacuum, a horse that won last out does have a better record then horses who did not win last out, but there isn't much of a difference between the two sets of data when you compare their win rate versus expected win rate (avg odds).

I am assuming that field size for both Quick Horse and Bris power figures takes the field size into consideration... But not sure... I would like to know how much (in terms of points) again in a vacuum beating a 10 horse field is worth as opposed to beating a 6 horse field.

[Some_One]

I don't have the sample size to break that down by field size of that win, my data does kinda support large field size wins are better, but it's not really convincing to me.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Flysofree

I have read a theory from Quick Horse that says the last race is awarded the fewer points as it's felt the horse used the most energy and won't be able to reproduce that figure today.

maybe for older horses, but for 2yo and 3yo and until July 4yo I'd put the most weight on last race. Those horses haven't seen their best yet.

Allan

[Overlay]

Purely from a figure rating perspective (aside from considerations of current condition), statistics that I've seen showed the greatest effectiveness in using an unweighted average of those races out of the horse's last three starts that were run on the same surface as today's race (or of all of the last three starts if none were run on today's surface). From the standpoint of last-race finish, horses that ran second last out had a higher winning percentage in their next start than horses with any other last-race finish position, including last-race winners (again, considering only that factor in isolation).

[Flysofree]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

maybe for older horses, but for 2yo and 3yo and until July 4yo I'd put the most weight on last race. Those horses haven't seen their best yet.

Allan

Yes that does makes sense to me. I wonder if the majority of races are carded for horses aged 3 and up. If so that could be the reason, QH leans to less points on the last race, especially if you consider July is also half way through the year.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Purely from a figure rating perspective (aside from considerations of current condition), statistics that I've seen showed the greatest effectiveness in using an unweighted average of those races out of the horse's last three starts that were run on the same surface as today's race (or of all of the last three starts if none were run on today's surface). From the standpoint of last-race finish, horses that ran second last out had a higher winning percentage in their next start than horses with any other last-race finish position, including last-race winners (again, considering only that factor in isolation).

In total agreement with stats on 2nd place finisher in last race. As a stand alone factor, flat betting yields a -ROI, of course. However, combined and filtered with other subset factors, will produce +ROI if diligence is applied.....As usual, all factors slowly change over time, nothing stays static except losses.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Flysofree

In creating Power figures from a horses last 3 races, what is the general consensus as to which race finish should be awarded the most points? I have read a theory from Quick Horse that says the last race is awarded the fewer points as it's felt the horse used the most energy and won't be able to reproduce that figure today. They were comparing that to the way in which Bris makes the figure in the opposite manner. I believe that was my understanding from reading the article a couple of weeks ago.

I know there are numerous factors to consider in which of the last 3 races may hold "the key", if there is such a thing to today. But what do readers here think? All opinions appreciated.

I like to treat horses as individuals, instead of lumping them all together. Now that we have lifetime PPs at our disposal...we don't have to guess on whether or not horses are capable of stringing sharp races together. Some horses get knocked out from a sharp last race, and some don't. The evidence is there for all to see...provided that we are willing to do the work.

[Flysofree]

Lifetime PP's

[thaskalos]

"QuickHorse theories"...

[Flysofree]

Quickhorse beats an E-Pony, which appears to be a dead horse... But every dog has it's day..

[Dave Schwartz]

This is a little away from topic but...

Statistically, a last race finish of 2nd is slightly superior to a finish of 1st.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

This is a little away from topic but...

Statistically, a last race finish of 2nd is slightly superior to a finish of 1st.

Someone get Dave a shot of espresso......read posts 6 and 8.

[Dave Schwartz]

Oops. That is what happens when you write a post and forget to hit "post" then come back later and just hit it.

Sorry.

(Or maybe I just get all my info from Overlay. He is a good source.)