How to.......???

[mikesal57]

I'm feeling like I'm being stalked .....TOM?


CJ can you penalize Tom 20,000 post please?

[cj]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

I'm feeling like I'm being stalked .....TOM?


CJ can you penalize Tom 20,000 post please?

Nope, he earned them. I couldn't anyway.

How does something like this look? You fill in the values in gray, the yellow are calculated fields. The ML% field is how much you want the overall odds to include the ML. I have it set for 50%. The Power Div is a divisor of the Power Rating that makes the spread more user friendly. You'd have to set this where you want it. Contender cutoff is how many points below the highest Power Rating would be considered a contender.

I use something like this. I hide the fields that I don't need to see eventually, but good to see them all in the beginning for error checking.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by cj

Nope, he earned them. I couldn't anyway.

How does something like this look? You fill in the values in gray, the yellow are calculated fields. The ML% field is how much you want the overall odds to include the ML. I have it set for 50%. The Power Div is a divisor of the Power Rating that makes the spread more user friendly. You'd have to set this where you want it. Contender cutoff is how many points below the highest Power Rating would be considered a contender.

I use something like this. I hide the fields that I don't need to see eventually, but good to see them all in the beginning for error checking.

That looks good CJ....

But heres the dilemma ......

This was an actual race today....CD 3rd race...

I bet the 6 , the winner , but I'm trying to see how I can use numbers to justify the 6 was a value bet....

So, how would you look at this chart and determine the VALUE horse?

[cj]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

That looks good CJ....

But heres the dilemma ......

This was an actual race today....CD 3rd race...

I bet the 6 , the winner , but I'm trying to see how I can use numbers to justify the 6 was a value bet....

So, how would you look at this chart and determine the VALUE horse?

The ODDS column in bold would be attempting to predict fair odds.

The first thing I would do is use real odds, not the morning line. Obviously you can't know the actual real odds, but you can used things like the DRF Projected Odds or calculate them yourself from the double will pays, P3 will pays, etc.

I'll get back to this a little later and post the spreadsheet, need to play around with it a bit and have some things to do first.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by cj

The ODDS column in bold would be attempting to predict fair odds.

The first thing I would do is use real odds, not the morning line. Obviously you can't know the actual real odds, but you can used things like the DRF Projected Odds or calculate them yourself from the double will pays, P3 will pays, etc.

I'll get back to this a little later and post the spreadsheet, need to play around with it a bit and have some things to do first.

[cj]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

There probably isn't a realistic way to get the 6 to fair odds below what he went off at because of the big spread between him and the highest rated horse using just morning line (or real odds) and the power rating.

The real key in my opinion was the bet down. If you want to include that, the horse probably looks strong. I think it was Pizzola that said if you like a horse that doesn't look that great on paper and doesn't get bet much, bet. If the same horses gets bet down, BET MORE!

I could probably figure out a way to include that in a spread sheet calculation as well but I haven't thought about it much before. I'm not saying every bet down is a bet, but a 7-2 horse that was 3-1 on the ML is much different than a 7-2 that was 12-1 on the ML. Of course this assumes it is a good morning line, not a bad one.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Thats something i'd like to figure out....

My style play is to look at top 4 contenders......

On the Value Capper thread , MP makes a "VALUE" line cutoff....

I like to get one too..

Appreciate this guys...

MP's cutoff is based on field size:

10 horse field 9/1
9 horse field 8/1
8 horse field 7/1

This is for contenders using his fair oddsline.

[PICSIX]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Thats something i'd like to figure out....

My style play is to look at top 4 contenders......

On the Value Capper thread , MP makes a "VALUE" line cutoff....

I like to get one too..

Appreciate this guys...

You could use an odds template as suggested by Steve Fierro in his book, "The Four Corners of Horse Investing". Here's what his 4 contender 2/1 template looks like:

Contender A, B, C, D

2/1...4/1...6/1...6/1......81%

2/1...9/2...5/1...6/1......81%

2/1...5/1...5/1...5/1......81%

2/1...5/1...5/1...6/1......79%

This is assigning your 4 contenders an 80% chance of winning and the rest of the field 20%.

[mikesal57]

Thxs SIX for your input...

I like that value line...its quick and simple......but...i need to further evaluate it..I've seen a number of 4th places horses win at nice odds...

Lets look at CJ's chart....and use the random line of 8-1 as this is a 9 horse field..

Contenders with ML & value odds & actual odds...using 8-1

4) 2.5......4.04......2.8
6) 12.......6.56......3.8
7) 2.........2.39......2.4


According to MP and his value play ....none of these horses are plays

My thinking is the value plays are the 4 & 6 because they are under the value odds and joe public is betting it that way too.....

So explain which way should be better?