My top 6 as of now...thoughts

[bgbootha]

Here we go, it’s about that time in the Road to the Kentucky Derby that we start putting together our top Derby horse lists, we will do the same. As always, we like to be a little different here are our top 6 Kentucky Derby horses as of February 24th. Pool three opens Friday, let’s take a look at who we think has a chance to take some of our money this weekend.

INTERNATIONAL STAR - An obvious choice thus far sitting on top of our list already with 71 points in the prep schedule and coming off a nice win in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds this past weekend. A nice win over what looks at this point as a semi-quality field, although I am not sure that many of these other horses are going to be around come the first weekend in May. Still a nice run through some traffic that included a solid move entering the turn led to an easy one-length win in the first 50 point derby prep races of the season. If you add the Risen Star win on top of his Lecomte win back in January this is a horse that has beaten the same field easily twice now. I am excited to see what he will do against a tougher field next time out, as he is more than likely pointed toward the Louisiana Derby. He already has more than enough points to qualify for a starting spot in the Derby. He closed pool two at 44-1 and it will be interesting to see what he comes out at in pool 3 this weekend.

FAR FROM OVER - Currently only sitting with 10 points thus far in the prep season, but this is simply my personal favorite. His run in the Withers was without a doubt the best single race I have seen this year, by any horse let alone a young three year old. He stumbled horribly out of the gate and gave a good 10+ lengths to a quality field settled down nicely and finished strong to win the race. But it wasn’t the win that really has me excited, watch the replay of this race and you will see the jockey Manuel Franco pressing him and going to the stick with three furlongs to go. This is a red flag to some, but most horses who get the whip that early have nothing to offer down the stretch, instead this horse started to pick off horses the second he was asked to move. The other thing to keep in mind with this race was the pace, it wasn’t as though FFO was picking off horses that were tired, this was a quality field that ran the half in 47:95, plenty of speed up front to keep him near the rear, but they weren’t able to. As the entered the stretch FFO was down along the rail and looked to be pinned made a nice move through some traffic and pulled away to win by a more than a length. Thus far he is an impressive 2-2 and will likely make his next start in the Gotham stakes in a couple of weeks at Aqueduct. He would have been 5/2 as part of the field in pool 2, but will likely be worth a look coming up in pool 3.

FAR RIGHT - This is an interesting colt and will be sitting on our list after an impressive win at Oaklawn this weekend in the Southwest Stakes. Here is another horse that I am excited to see take on some stiffer competition in the coming month or so as he has shown the ability to beat a similar field twice in a row in the Southwest and in the Smarty Jones. The impressive thing about this horse is his ability to move through some traffic. His race in the Smarty Jones back in January was impressive in the way he was able to move through horses coming into the stretch, most young three year olds have a hard time splitting horses and pulling through, but Far Right made it looks easy and then came back from an impressive run to win again. Looks like he will be pointing toward the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn in early April. He was sitting at nearly 50-1 in pool 2 and will likely be a good price in pool 3.

AMERICAN PHAROAH - Its probably crazy to have a horse on this list that hasn’t ran in a race since the end of September, but this is a horse that looked absolutely amazing at the age of 2 before dealing with the injury that kept him out. He looks to return in a couple weeks in the Rebel Stakes and could get an exciting field to make a comeback against. The pedigree on this horse is absolutely stunning and Baffert seems to be able to get a horse ready come prep season. He has been working out well the last couple of weeks. I am really interested to see where he is on the pool three odds and could really get a nice price on a horse that could come back to be one of the favorites in May.

OCHO OCHO OCHO - Another horse that missed some time due to injury, but this is an impressive horse that is undefeated in 3 starts and will be making his return in a couple of weeks at the San Felipe Stakes at his home track Santa Anita. He only has 10 points in the prep season with a win at Delta Downs in the Delta Downs Jackpot, but he beat some quality horses including a horse higher on this list in Far Right. He also had an impressive win on the undercard of the Breeders Cup races in the Juvenile Turf Sprint that was moved to the dirt that he won by more than 5 lengths. He was 26-1 at the close of pool 2, and I would love to see if we can get him closer to 30-1 in pool 3 and will be well worth the bet.

DORTMUND - Another west coast undefeated horse who is a perfect 4-4 including a nice start on the Churchill Downs Dirt back in November. The problem here is the complete lack of quality fields that he has faced thus far in his journey. His win in the beginning of February in the Robert B Lewis was impressive, but beating Firing Line and Rock Shandy just doesn’t boost my confidence in him. Connections have been pretty quiet on where they are pointing him next, but he will likely meet Ocho Ocho Ocho in the Santa Anita Derby in April. I would expect him to run again coming soon in the next couple of weeks as well. This is a colt that I feel will likely be over bet in pool 3 due to his undefeated record, and he could be the real thing, I just don’t know yet.

Honorable Mentions

TEXAS RED - The injury is the only reason he is not halfway up this list. He is coming off a 2nd place finish in a tough 7f sprint that he would have won easily had he had any more distance. His win the in the Breeders Cup Juvenile was more than impressive, but the injury could keep him off the trail for a while and will likely need a 2nd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby in April to have a shot at the field.

MR JORDAN - Who? Watch out for this horse in the coming months at Gulfstream. Undefeated in three impressive starts at two years old this horse may have had a more impressive 2-year old campaign than American Pharoah and just got back on the workout trail this week. Many sources say he is off the Derby trail, but we will see how he works out in the coming weeks. I wouldn't surprise to see him jump into the Bluegrass or another late prep race and try to sneak into the gates in May.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

It is as good a list as any right now, but I'll give my opinions on the horses you selected.

1. International Star: Solid horse that has learned how to win. I question the competition he has faced, but you can basically say that about any 3YO right now. I think he is well short of others.

2. Far From Over: I had him in the Withers, so I have to be careful about my adoration for his almost unbelievable win. His breeding out of Blame and A.P. Indy is also a personal favorite of mine, but I agree that his win in the Withers was as visually impressive a race as any 3YO we've seen thus far.

3. Far Right: Not a fan. Like his deep closing style, but the breeding is iffy at best to me. Everything says he wants more distance, but I'm not sold.

4. American Pharoah: Hard to really know till his next couple of races. Obviously a good horse, but I rarely like speed horses in the Derby, and this one may well need the lead in order to win judging by his 3 race career thus far. The next time he passes a horse, it will be a first. Unfortunately, we may not learn much his next out.

5. Ocho Ocho Ocho: Love everything about this colt thus far other than the time on the shelf. We'll see where he stacks up this weekend. Looks like he'll shape up to be a classic stalker which sets up well for the Derby.

6. Dortmund: Big horse. Hasn't done much wrong, but I question his ability to get 10 panels. Can't knock his heart thus far as he looked done last out to come back impressively for the win. A real grinder that has to be somewhere near the lead coming into the stretch because his turn of foot looks to be nothing special thus far.

[Some_One]

IS- Might just love FG? Want to see one else where
FFO - Would be an early fav for the Belmont, pedigree to run all day, good LP fig last out
FR - The Chromie of this years crop, awful looking pedgiree, how much improvement left?
AP - Another one with a weak pedigree, it's March and still hasn't run, can't be a good sign.
OOO - Another one who has been on the shelf for a while now, weak LP's but strong final times, not sure if he wants 10f, think mile will be hist best.
D - Weak Dam sire and a win early sire? tough to gauge based on the limited field sizes he has run against, wouldn't support him as fav, but gladly take 20's

[letswastemoney]

The Oaklawn and Fair Grounds races have been slow so far. I'm not impressed with horses like Far Right and International Star. They would need extreme setups in the Derby against better horses.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Some_One

FR - The Chromie of this years crop, awful looking pedgiree, how much improvement left?

Chrome was a lot faster in his prep races, and with much more tactical speed than Far Right.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

The Oaklawn and Fair Grounds races have been slow so far. I'm not impressed with horses like Far Right and International Star. They would need extreme setups in the Derby against better horses.

Who are the better horses?

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

Who are the better horses?

In comparison to International Star and Far Right?

For one, Dortmund is probably better by 5 to 10 lengths. Upstart is too.

Too many to mention. I don't think highly of the Fair Grounds and Oaklawn group. American Pharoah is running in the Rebel though, and that will add some quality to the Oaklawn circuit.

[bgbootha]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

In comparison to International Star and Far Right?

For one, Dortmund is probably better by 5 to 10 lengths. Upstart is too.

Too many to mention. I don't think highly of the Fair Grounds and Oaklawn group. American Pharoah is running in the Rebel though, and that will add some quality to the Oaklawn circuit.

I am not sure what you see in Dortmund to make you think he is 5-10 lengths better than those in the other circuits. He may prove me wrong tomorrow in the San Felipe, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't cash in that one. He hasn't beat anyone, and those he has beat he struggled to do so.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

I am not sure what you see in Dortmund to make you think he is 5-10 lengths better than those in the other circuits. He may prove me wrong tomorrow in the San Felipe, but it wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't cash in that one. He hasn't beat anyone, and those he has beat he struggled to do so.

He has only struggled to defeat Firing Line and Mr. Z.

Mr. Z is a good horse that hasn't progressed well. I'd rate his effort at Oaklawn better than International Star's, considering the pace.

Firing Line is in the upper class of three-year-olds, and this will be proven as the year goes on.

Dortmund's numbers are light years ahead of International Star.

[Prytanis]

And you didn't include the NYB on your list.
Tsk ,tsk,tsk

[bgbootha]

*Updated List after San Felipe / Tampa Bay / Gotham

Here we are sitting about 7 weeks out from the Kentucky Derby, we will likely see most of these contenders once may be twice more before they take the gate in Kentucky. After an exciting weekend last weekend with three and a half Derby prep races, let’s see what our top six look like now.

DORTMUND – I will be the first to admit, I was not high on this horse entering last weekend’s San Felipe Stakes, but he proved me wrong. He won and won going away and looked good doing it. Ocho Ocho Ocho was nowhere to be found in this race after being pinched pretty hard in the gate, but this was a quality field and Dortmund was clearly the best here. Dortmund will likely make his next start as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby and with 70 points already in the bank, he clearly has enough to find a spot in the gates on Derby Day.

INTERNATIONAL STAR – We have another couple of weeks to see this horse again in the Louisiana Derby at the end of March. This is a horse that has seem to have finally found himself and has looked great in his last two starts in the Risen Star and Lecomte.

FAR FROM OVER – Undefeated in two starts and his win in the Withers as simply amazing. It was hands down the best run we have seen from any horse looking for this field. I was kind of surprised that the connections decided to skip the Gotham and train straight for the Wood on April 4th. With only 10 points he will have to have a good race against a high quality field at Aqueduct a month from now. But if he breaks well and then runs the same race he ran in the Withers he can win by 5+ lengths.

FAR RIGHT – Coming off two nice wins we will likely see FAR RIGHT next in the Arkansas Derby on April 11th, giving him one more prep before he heads off for Kentucky. This is a horse that will really be tested for the first time against high quality competition in April, he has won and looked good, but hasn’t seem to beat anyone of note quite yet. Sitting with 22 points he likely needs to show in the money in Arkansas to find the gates in Kentucky, but if he runs up to his potential he should find his way into a gate without issue.

AMERICAN PHAROAH – Like most of the country, I am super excited to see what this guy can do this weekend in the Rebel, but unfortunately this is shaping up to be nothing more than a paid workout. Other than a Pletcher hopeful in MADEFROMLUCKY there really doesn’t seem to be any competition in this field. I am not sure what AP can show us that would prove that he is ready for the big boys this weekend. That being said, showing up and losing this race would throw this horse well off my list and force a good showing next time out.

EL KABIER – Another impressive winner last weekend in the Gotham, this time he switched up his style and rated just off the leaders and pulled away for an impressive victory. This is a horse that has won three of his last four, and his only loss was to an amazing over the top run from Far From Over which in my opinion makes EL Kabeir look even stronger. He will likely be pointing toward the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct but is currently in the lead with 75 derby points and clearly already has enough to qualify for a starting spot at Churchill.

Honorable Mentions

OCHO OCHO OCHO – Was loving this horse heading into last weekend’s San Felipe, he broke late and was pinched off and simply never recovered. There is still a great deal of talent in this horse, he was making his first race after an injury induced layoff. He will make his return in Santa Anita Derby and with a better start I still think he has a chance to put up a fight against Dortmund.

CARPE DIEM – Another nice win in the Tampa Bay Derby and he will easily have enough points to make the gate, but I still don’t know if he has beat anyone worth noting. We haven’t really seen a whole lot from the field of the BC Juvenile. And there was simply no body of note in the Tampa Bay Derby. To make matter worse, he is pointed toward the Blue Grass Stakes which at this point looks like a rematch between Carpe Diem and a bunch of nobody’s. We may not know who this horse really is until he runs against a real field in the Kentucky Derby.

MR. JORDAN – With Khozan out of the picture this is the horse that could make a late splash if he is ready to run in the Florida Derby. Obviously he will likely need to win the Florida Derby to get into the gates at Churchill. But this is still the horse that I am most excited to see make his 2015 debut. He is back on the workout trail, but we will have to wait and see.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Still recovering from Ocho3x's effort in the San Felipe.

I knew he was small, but damn did he look tiny. Really small. Dortmund could have lifted up a leg and stomped him on top of the head. Looked like a mother and foal all of 3 months old.

Ocho3xs got jostled around and roughed up early, had to work to get into the race, and got bumped a bit more. I see it as a horse that was intimidated by the others more than anything.

I'm crossing Ocho3x's off my Derby list. He has to get the lead to avoid any kind of traffic, which is very unlikely for him to do much less win the race wire to wire.

[davew]

I can't wait to see American Pharoah in the Rebel tomorrow, if he starts.

[bgbootha]

His workout routine looked like it was back to normal, I don't see any reason why he doesn't start, besides if he is 80% of the horse he was back in September, he should win this easily.