Future Wager Pool 2 Information & Stats

[luvalab]

I put up a bunch of information on my blog regarding Pool 2 of the Ky Derby Future Wager. It contains a table that list how many horses from this pool have made the Kentucky Derby each year and how they finished. Also, I listed every pool from from 2014 to 2002 individually. It shows which horses from that year made the Kentucky Derby, how they finished and which major prep races they had run in prior to the pool along with their finish in those races. Also, there is a write up on how I approach the Exacta in the Future Wager. I hope this helps! Enjoy and good luck with the Future Wager!

Blog Link:
2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 Statistics

[boys at tosconova]

good stuff. wish i would have seen this earlier

[horses4courses]

[zico20]

Shocked that Texas Red is the favorite. Thought the field would be lower than 5-2 also.

[luvalab]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

good stuff. wish i would have seen this earlier

Thanks! Keep a lookout as I'll post some stuff before the final 2 pools as well.

[boys at tosconova]

i still think that these futures are a gimmick, regardless of the (all other horses exacta) exploit.

the prices just don't seem right.

every other horse in the exacta w/ the rest of the horses just wasn't paying out high enough. from 88 to <500..that's weak imo.....you can do better on derby day, with horses that you know are running.

was thinking about betting far right at 50-1 but i missed out..but unless he goes on a tear, he'll prolly be >20-1 even if he gets in..

these pools are great if you're in the know about a specific horse,..or get the odds on fav at >20-1

the risk/reward just isn't there

[overthehill]

you are probably right. but i couldnt resist a small wager on khozan. i was very impressed with everything about his three year old debut. i expect that if he gets to the derby he will be a lot lower than the closing odds in the future pool. On the other hand besides upstart. to me no one else has been that impressive in 2015

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

the risk/reward just isn't there

That pretty much summarizes KY Derby futures.
It's one of the best betting races of the year,
even when you bet with just minutes to post.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Georgeous Bird was hit early as was Ocean Knight. Interestingly, neither horse has recorded Kentucky Derby points.

Best overlay appeared to be on Frosted, who already has a decent point total and just needs to place in the next 50 pts race to make the field. It seemed to me they didn't preserve with Frosted in the Holy Bull when Upstart drew away. Have to be a little concerned he's developing seconditis as he's only won once in his career. Next race will be key for him.

[Stillriledup]

Mr Z and El Khabir are the two most overbet runners....with El Khabir, you're going to need a jock change to have any shot and Mr Z isn't winning any Derbies with Jon Court bolting into the grandstand....you need double or triple on both those 2 runners to even consider it.

[luvalab]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i still think that these futures are a gimmick, regardless of the (all other horses exacta) exploit.

the prices just don't seem right.

every other horse in the exacta w/ the rest of the horses just wasn't paying out high enough. from 88 to <500..that's weak imo.....you can do better on derby day, with horses that you know are running.

was thinking about betting far right at 50-1 but i missed out..but unless he goes on a tear, he'll prolly be >20-1 even if he gets in..

these pools are great if you're in the know about a specific horse,..or get the odds on fav at >20-1

the risk/reward just isn't there

I think you are right in the win pool, it's hard to have a solid idea about one specific horse at this point. There are so many unknowns at this point, even at odds of 20-1 or greater. As mainly an exacta and trifecta player, I spend a lot of time on bet structuring. I even created a database solely dedicated to helping me structure bets more efficiently based on my handicapping. I approach the future exacta as a saver bet to the plays I make on Derby Day. It allows me to cover hundreds of combinations that I cannot afford to cover on Derby Day for a fraction of the cost. When it comes time to structure my bets on Derby Day, I consider the main players and know that I already have a lot of combinations covered with horses that I think are likely to have a low probability of finishing in the exacta. With that in mind, on Derby Day I don't have to spend $1 on each combination that I want to use as a saver bet. With the method I use to select horses in the future wager showing a nice positive ROI when wheeling them over and under The Field, it gives me confidence that I have strong savers underneath my main Derby Day plays. And, at times it adds to my main plays as in 2012 with I'll Have Another / Bodemeister. This is just my approach and I understand that not everyone plays or approaches the game the same way - which is what makes it such a great game.