Early money - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Harmonicaslim · 08-10-2012, 12:23 PM

Some of us watch the first couple of flashes of the tote with interest. How much money does it take to view it as "significant", though.

Thanks,
Slim

Striker · 08-10-2012, 12:42 PM

Depends on the track and the size of the pools. In Chicago(Arlington or Hawthorne) $1k or $2k of early money could put a horse at 2-5 or 3-5 at the first click of the tote, but if you look at Saratoga where they get $300 to $400k in their weekday WPS pools it is going to take a lot more to move the early odds.

Fingal · 08-10-2012, 12:54 PM

I'll make a note of the first flash because that's usually advance play & maybe a barn that bets early. Then about 5 minutes to post as that has allowed the betting to become largely what it will be & people have seen the horses in both the walking ring & on track.

But yeah, it depends on pool size in the first place. You just have to go through charts that show pool size- a win pool needs a fair amount of betting to move it. A quinella with only a few thousand in the pool any substantial bet will move the odds.

Valuist · 08-10-2012, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Striker

Depends on the track and the size of the pools. In Chicago(Arlington or Hawthorne) $1k or $2k of early money could put a horse at 2-5 or 3-5 at the first click of the tote, but if you look at Saratoga where they get $300 to $400k in their weekday WPS pools it is going to take a lot more to move the early odds.

I find early money in both Chicago and KY to be fairly significant. Lets say you got a horse who you expect to be 10-1 and he opens up at 5-2. Then drifts up to 6-1 or 7-1 before getting hit late again, maybe back to 9-2 or 5-1. Those horses win more than their fair share on those circuits.

If you are a trainer or owner and want to bet, there's a good chance you're going to put at least some of your money down early, to avoid being shut out.

Tape Reader · 08-10-2012, 01:50 PM

<ML at 20 MTP >ML at OFF. One of my favorite plays.

Today at Saratoga. First race. Number 6. 20-1 ML, 12-1 at 20 MTP, 22-1 at OFF.

Winner! $47.00

Saratoga is a wonderful track for playing off the tote.

Ocala Mike · 08-10-2012, 02:04 PM

What Tape Reader said. Caught Luigi P at 9/1 in the very early betting.

lamboguy · 08-10-2012, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

What Tape Reader said. Caught Luigi P at 9/1 in the very early betting.

great catch!

Ocala Mike · 08-10-2012, 02:56 PM

lamboguy, I walked into OBS a little after noon time, and put some bets in. Sometimes it pays to see the board at the right time. I'm not really a "tape reader" (an old stock market term from when guys used to sit around the brokerage office back in the days before everyone was on-line day trading the market), but I'm convinced there are guys who play this game without ever looking at a DRF, maybe with some success.

lamboguy · 08-10-2012, 03:15 PM

i want to know if the donuts are any good these days at OBS?

certainly that is one way to play these days, certainly not the worst way and maybe its at the top of the list.

i don't use a racing form either. when i sit at home i rely on Twinspires for the program and watch replays, and then i check out my notes. i write notes on Twinspires Brisnet and they show up when the horse is entered. the main thing i do is watch workouts, i have a network of friends in different places that are good at it and we share our notes. i have a guy that watches the 2yo in training sales and i watch works at different training centers in Ocala, i will also travel to a track to watch a special horse. that's why i try to stay away from past performances as much as i can.

i must admit that i test drove the formulator and thought it was pretty good. i just don't feel like paying for it.

badcompany · 08-10-2012, 04:29 PM

I've found that a horse NOT getting money is more significant than the other way around. In horse racing, much like the stock market, there are very few absolutes, but, a horse opening at high odds that, on paper, should've been getting money is a pretty reliable negative sign.

jorcus99 · 08-10-2012, 04:55 PM

There are a lot of tricks to reading the board. One thing to keep in mind is who owns the horse and what are the patterns that have shown up before with that owner. Some owners will drop a horse in claiming price and bet heavy in order to help get out from a horse they paid to much for. Some partnerships seem to bet on their horse no matter what so you have to beware of a false read. I also like to look at the place and show pools. Is the money showing up in those areas as well? That may be less sophisticated money coming from the backside where word has gotten around about a horse. They tend to be better plays than the win pool alone. Early money on a horse that does not look like a contender on paper is often more important than money on a horse that does. It also pays to wait and see if that early money stays on the board if the horse does not continue to take some money through the wagering it is worrysome. As others have said a horse that was supposed to take money and does not is very negative. If they are longshots going in it is not as important. Also keep in mind some owners do not bet very much at all.

As to your original question. If a horse is taking about 6 to 8 times more than any other horse in the early wagering then it is worth asking yourself why?

castaway01 · 08-10-2012, 05:29 PM

All this stuff sounds good when you cherry pick one horse a month after the race and say it won, but I'd gladly book the bets of any of the "tote readers" out there. We've had threads like this before and the tote readers always crap out when actually asked to pick before the race. Redboarding they are very good at though.

Tape Reader · 08-10-2012, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by castaway01

All this stuff sounds good when you cherry pick one horse a month after the race and say it won, but I'd gladly book the bets of any of the "tote readers" out there.

I'm in!

I would like to bet $2 to win on all the horses that meet my tote board requirement for the remainder of the Saratoga meet.

If we can get an impartial moderator, he/she shall receive 50% of the winners earnings.

No need to put money up front as our name is our word.

What say you?

Sincerely,

Tape Reader

JackS · 08-10-2012, 08:04 PM

I'm thinking it's better to stay away from horses who do not appear to deserve the recognition the owner/trainer/public seem to think he deserves. It is always an interesting observation though and should loosen the tote on other more deserving horses. These types don't surprise me enough to be taken seriously. My advise- note when this is happening and play something else.

Maximillion · 08-10-2012, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by badcompany

I've found that a horse NOT getting money is more significant than the other way around. In horse racing, much like the stock market, there are very few absolutes, but, a horse opening at high odds that, on paper, should've been getting money is a pretty reliable negative sign.

I agree....especially so if you have say, 3 need the lead types in a race, that on paper seem hard to separate(fractions,pace fig,etc.) the lack of early action on one or two of these does seem, imho to "get it right" on many occasions.