Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Not to 1 up you or anything like that, I believe I had this virus in Feb of 2018, after returning from the NHC in Vegas....I had everyone of the symptoms, looking back, and was laid up for 2 weeks......Haven't been sick at all with anything since then.

I believe it is possible. Not to go into detail, but I believe it

[PaceAdvantage]

Nearly 3M New Yorkers have had the virus newest study shows.

So glad we listened to the SCIENCE and crushed our economy to STOP THE SPREAD...

****ING MORONS.

[davew]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Nearly 3M New Yorkers have had the virus newest study shows.

So glad we listened to the SCIENCE and crushed our economy to STOP THE SPREAD...

****ING MORONS.

Cuomo has just started crushing the economy, and then will expect the federal government to bail NY out from its deficit.

What do they think happens to sales tax and income tax receipts when then close all non-essential businesses?

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

It's only a tough question if he's posting with an agenda. How many c19 deaths didn't involve pre existing or serious conditions. There's obviously an answer yet I can't find any of the pearl clutchers to give one

I'm sure I caught this last November, then a relapse right after Xmas. After early January it dissipated. When time allows I'll go in for testing to see if I can donate blood for what's being asked. Irony of ironies, I'll be going to the Dr and NP that I went to back in December about the sickness, who basically kicked the can down the road (negative test for flu, so they sent me to a cardiologist which was a waste of time).

I have a lot of faith in the medical community, but to me they really didn't handle this whole mess world wide as best as possible, but they did the best they could given the info at the time. No need to dogpile, same for politicians decisions. It's a new scenario

I found it interesting a Brit researcher thinks c19 was active in October, maybe earlier. My illness began Nov 14 (it WAS severe as I posted 2 months ago) , my wife and I last week checked our chess class attendance logs. One of our 5 yo's is from China originally, and he last attended our Nov 10 class. He was sick as a dog, just came back from China 2 or 3 weeks earlier.

We called his dad last weekend to "check up" on John. Said he was fine.

I believe you're spot on. And this would nicely account for the fact why Commiefornia has so few cases and fatalities compared to New York. Herd immunity has been in play in CA for a long time! And...more than a few Chinese visited CA during the Chinese New Year!

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Tom

Again, and not at all surprising, hcap totally misses the point.

You have two groups of patient.

Group 1 - have COVID and NO pre-existing conditions or other complications.
Group 2 - have COVID and HAVE complicating factors, age, other illnesses.....

So what if death rate for Group 1 is significantly lower than that of Groups 2?

It make no sense to mitigate both groups the same way.
Now, what is in Group 2, there is a Group 3 - those with the added risk and in nursing homes? And that death rate is through the roof.

Treat COVID as if it is one disease impacting everyone the same way is nonsense. I am in Groups 2. I should be more cautious than those in Group 1.
But to penalize those in Group 1 the same as me, is nonsense.

Looking only at the curve for Group 1 will give a better picture of the COVID in and of itself.

I posted comparative stats on all the Scandinavian countries indicating Sweden's higher death rate was directly related to Sweden's attempt to use less social distancing and other mitigation measures in contrast to it's neighbors which used them much more.

Kabong jumped in and said it was a useless analysis since it did not take pre-erxisting conditions into account. The Scandinavians are approximately equal in health, politics, genetics and environmental conditions. In a perfect world of perfect data that might be correct. We do not have perfect infol.

But the differences in how the disease was dealt with, becomes the overwhelming causal factor. QED.

I am telling you righties, the disease does not choose who to attack. It is an equal opportunity pandemic, affecting those with asthma, bronchitis, lung cancer, heart disease and diabetes, as well as 100% healthy individuals. Differences in immune responses may affect that, but we just don't know enough.

In any given population we do not know who has what. To slow the spread and flatten the curve, everyone in that population must follow the same procedures. Specific treatments obviously arte adjusted to deal with those with certain pre-existing conditions, once affected and diagnosed.

NOT BEFOREHAND

The obvious exception is nursing homes.

Other than that, unless you want to practice authoritarian eugenics a.k.a., the Nazis, we must institute similar dcontrol methods. As more data, testing-both immunity by antibodies, and current infection status, modified by the infection rate, then individual locals may be adjusted.

Under no circumstances doe either having a pre-existing condition or not having it, change the overall lethality or danger of this disease. Nor did it change the overall stats of previous flu pasndemics.

Only the individuals affected

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by hcap

I posted comparative stats on all the Scandinavian countries indicating Sweden's higher death rate was directly related to Sweden's attempt to use less social distancing and other mitigation measures in contrast to it's neighbors which used them much more.

Kabong jumped in and said it was a useless analysis since it did not take pre-erxisting conditions into account. The Scandinavians are approximately equal in health, politics, genetics and environmental conditions. In a perfect world of perfect data that might be correct. We do not have perfect infol.

But the differences in how the disease was dealt with, becomes the overwhelming causal factor. QED.

I am telling you righties, the disease does not choose who to attack. It is an equal opportunity pandemic, affecting those with asthma, bronchitis, lung cancer, heart disease and diabetes, as well as 100% healthy individuals. Differences in immune responses may affect that, but we just don't know enough.

In any given population we do not know who has what. To slow the spread and flatten the curve, everyone in that population must follow the same procedures. Specific treatments obviously arte adjusted to deal with those with certain pre-existing conditions, once affected and diagnosed.

NOT BEFOREHAND

The obvious exception is nursing homes.

Other than that, unless you want to practice authoritarian eugenics a.k.a., the Nazis, we must institute similar dcontrol methods. As more data, testing-both immunity by antibodies, and current infection status, modified by the infection rate, then individual locals may be adjusted.

Under no circumstances doe either having a pre-existing condition or not having it, change the overall lethality or danger of this disease. Nor did it change the overall stats of previous flu pasndemics.

Only the individuals affected

Hey, Mr. Blowhard Empty Suit, you haven't answered question in post 62. What's the matter: You couldn't find talking points on any leftist site?

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by hcap

Under no circumstances doe either having a pre-existing condition or not having it, change the overall lethality or danger of this disease. Nor did it change the overall stats of previous flu pasndemics.

Do you have any idea whatsoever how utterly stupid you sound!? (Rhetorical question, of course you don't. ) What you have just implied very clearly is that unhealthy people with preexisting conditions stand an equal chance of surviving covid-19 as healthy people do, with no preexisting conditions!

[Marshall Bennett]

No sense arguing with hcap, after all, he's never been wrong about anything in his life.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by hcap

I posted comparative stats on all the Scandinavian countries indicating Sweden's higher death rate was directly related to Sweden's attempt to use less social distancing and other mitigation measures in contrast to it's neighbors which used them much more...

Imo, some critical thinking might be in order.

Is it possible that:

Sweden's covid-19 death rate isn't any higher than covid-19 death rates of other countries?

But because Sweden didn't do a lockdown like other countries:

A greater percentage of Sweden's population has been infected by covid-19 than population percentages of other countries?

I'm not talking about the current official number of reported cases which is becoming more and more clear by the day is off by orders of magnitude for every country on the planet.

I'm talking about the actual number of cases about to be reported in a few weeks once Sweden starts rolling out antibody tests like we recently have in California and in New York.

Is it possible that:

Looking at Sweden's data through the 'deaths per million' lens (and ONLY through the 'deaths per million' lens) is causing the rest of the world to make bad assumptions about what is really happening in Sweden?

Sweden's death rate, hospitalization rate, severe case rate, and mild case rate is actually very much in line with the case rates for those very same categories of other countries?

If so:

Then critical thinking suggests Sweden may be doing just fine.

We should know in a few weeks once Sweden starts rolling out their own serology antibody tests.

I say keep an open mind.

And stay safe.



-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

Sweden is one of the few sane actors in this entire tragic comedy of errors.

We have absolutely devastated the entire world's economy on a guess....on flawed initial models...on people's desire for power and control...and yes...on a a desire to do massive political damage to a certain US President.

This is just about the only hard truth to come out of all of this to date.

[davew]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Sweden is one of the few sane actors in this entire tragic comedy of errors.

We have absolutely devastated the entire world's economy on a guess....on flawed initial models...on people's desire for power and control...and yes...on a a desire to do massive political damage to a certain US President.

This is just about the only hard truth to come out of all of this to date.

the models are probably accurate but GIGO (garbage in, garbage out)


the ratios and assumptions going into the model were just multiples wrong

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Sweden is one of the few sane actors in this entire tragic comedy of errors.

We have absolutely devastated the entire world's economy on a guess....on flawed initial models...on people's desire for power and control...and yes...on a a desire to do massive political damage to a certain US President.

This is just about the only hard truth to come out of all of this to date.

Do you feel the 50K deaths so far are inaccurate because they are counting some that are not covid-19. I read something about counting because of funding. I also read something about Sweden being much less densely populated compared to other country's, I have tried to read as much about Sweden in the news on the subject.

[ctownraces@bp]

Originally Posted by Marshall Bennett

No sense arguing with hcap, after all, he's never been wrong about anything in his life.

Thats a fact no dout.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by boxcar

Hey, Mr. Blowhard Empty Suit, you haven't answered question in post 62. What's the matter: You couldn't find talking points on any leftist site?

I have posted two preliminary studies, one from the CDC.(leftist enough?) Doesn't matter anyway, you are just to dumb too understand this conversation.

There is no question having a pre existing condition makes contracting covid more dangerous., but that does not alter it's overall lethality or contagious rate as compared to previous flu pandemics. That awful comparison, that it is definitely worse, holds even if you think it is a hoax. like your unstable Moron-in-Chief did

Other than nursing homes or or other confined institutions like prisons, we can not segregate a given population by pre existing conditions, (many patients do not know as to whether they have on), and unless we are willing to accept a much more authoritarian government like China, or perhaps wear badges like these......Look familiar?

[hcap]

Sweden has nearly 10 times the number of COVID-19-related deaths than its Nordic neighbors. Here's where it went wrong.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...erently-2020-4

Sweden — which has yet to order any lockdown amid the novel coronavirus pandemic — 15,322 cases and 1,765 deaths from the virus so far.
The virus has been nearly 10 times as deadly as in Sweden than in other Nordic countries.

Norway, which has half as many people as Sweden, has seen 7,191 cases and 182 deaths. Finland, which has a population similar to Norway's, has seen 4,014 COVID-19 cases and 141 deaths.


This side-by-side of Sweden versus Norway shows that Sweden may have made a mistake in taking a relaxed approach to lockdown. Ian Shepherdson / Pantheon Macroeconomics