Juan Carlos "the magician" Guerrero strikes again!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Zman179

I certainly don't avoid betting these types of races. If I see Guerrero (or a similar super-juicer) first time off the claim, he is my top choice and is going on top of all my tickets. It doesn't matter if the horse has lost his last four races by a combined total of 70 lengths (with one of those races being eased), he is winning today. Period.

Sometimes in order to make a profit you just have to learn to throw the form out and bet based on cold trainer stats, and the public is starting to do just that.

The above is fine - When the horse isn't a heavy favorite in each of the pools you plan on playing.
Disregard my advice if the public isn't crushing the particular super-trainer yet. Good point about not caring if the form is bad - in many cases that is your only chance because you may get 7-2 on a horse! Once your first off claimer is a well bet favorite, you are mathematically locking into an agreement at somewhere between breakeven and takeout. I don't care how much confidence you have, if the horse is bet down you are subject to the takeout considering the amount of money who mathematically has to agree with you in order to drive the odds down.

You know who really allows this garbage to continue?? It's not the addict(although the current goofy biz model is too oriented to a bare-bones small operation that sometimes seems to make the poor decision to make the addict part of the focus), and its not guys like Zman who still demand a price on the juice, - it's the money launderers. If they had real integrity, they would let their dollars do the talking. But they don't. They are willing to leverage a loss, provided it's consistent. The MLs whale-money keeps the drug races afloat. The skill-players decreased play in those races isn't even felt because of the MLs presence (which at times increases). There is almost a certainty that there is some coordination at certain tracks between rebate players, to help avoid them playing each other too much. Drugs help their cause. They might actually care about the harm to the horses, but that doesn't pay their bills. Having a bunch of extra strong-favorites sures-up their operation, and as mentioned they don't care if it is at a small-moderate loss after rebates.

[Relwob Owner]

Check out I Ain't Lyin who just won the second...topped out at a 42 Beyer on the dirt, claimed running an 8 Beyer, runs a 72 next out and then just won by a mile in 1:16 and change after running absurdly fast fractions(43 and change for the half, I think).....remarkable improvement

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

Check out I Ain't Lyin who just won the second...topped out at a 42 Beyer on the dirt, claimed running an 8 Beyer, runs a 72 next out and then just won by a mile in 1:16 and change after running absurdly fast fractions(43 and change for the half, I think).....remarkable improvement

You bring up beyer figures at Parx it seems they are always a lot lighter there as opposed to MP, Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga. Penn,Mountaineer and CT horses also seem to get very low beyer figures. I wonder why that is?

[Beachbabe]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

Check out I Ain't Lyin who just won the second...topped out at a 42 Beyer on the dirt, claimed running an 8 Beyer, runs a 72 next out and then just won by a mile in 1:16 and change after running absurdly fast fractions(43 and change for the half, I think).....remarkable improvement

Probably ran a Beyer in the high 80's today, at least.
I think it's that tender loving care he gives all his horses which enable them to improve 80 points in just 2 races. Nothing like a little change in shoes or a change in bedding to get those horses to really want to run.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by onefast99

You bring up beyer figures at Parx it seems they are always a lot lighter there as opposed to MP, Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga. Penn,Mountaineer and CT horses also seem to get very low beyer figures. I wonder why that is?

Good question....I mainly watch and focus on CT and check in at Philly on some Mondays when I am bored with paperwork....with many multiple track playing figs people on here, I can imagine someone has some insight on what you have noticed.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by Beachbabe

Probably ran a Beyer in the high 80's today, at least.
I think it's that tender loving care he gives all his horses which enable them to improve 80 points in just 2 races. Nothing like a little change in shoes or a change in bedding to get those horses to really want to run.

My personal favorite in theses situations is when people defend things,saying the horses are simply "well spotted".......

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by proximity

one (ahem) positive in 2010 was the state police investigation at penn national.

while i don't know what this investigation will ultimately yield in terms of convictions (if anything), the presence of the state police really seemed to stabilize most of the outrageous trainer percentages that plagued this track throughout the decade. stephanie beattie is struggling to finish 20% for the year at pen and jamie ness is at like 17%. amongst the leaders, only scott lake has a really high percentage and that is with a limited number of starters.

when it comes to policing super-trainers, i guess it just depends on the hawk that's doing the watching.

Jamie Ness at 17%? I'm sure that's a small number of starters. He'll be up to his usual 30% in no time.

[point given]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

My personal favorite in theses situations is when people defend things,saying the horses are simply "well spotted".......

Didnot know there were " pinto " tbreds .

[onefast99]

Originally Posted by Beachbabe

Probably ran a Beyer in the high 80's today, at least.
I think it's that tender loving care he gives all his horses which enable them to improve 80 points in just 2 races. Nothing like a little change in shoes or a change in bedding to get those horses to really want to run.

"drew off in the stretch as if out for a stroll in the park" I haven't seen too many of those lines in the comment section. Very fast time, best of the day by far.

[TonyK@HSH]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Jamie Ness at 17%? I'm sure that's a small number of starters. He'll be up to his usual 30% in no time.

Jamie maintained a full barn at Pen for nearly a year but pulled out in September. Win percentage hovered at 17% (Pen only). Pen is a tough place to race right now.

[Lancelot10]

Originally Posted by onefast99

"drew off in the stretch as if out for a stroll in the park" I haven't seen too many of those lines in the comment section. Very fast time, best of the day by far.

I like the side commment- "COMPLETE DOMINATION"... I'm sure her prior connections love reading that-

[Spiderman]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

A very educational race took place yesterday (Monday) at Philly Park, which also illustrates one of the main problems that our favorite sport faces in the current era.

In Monday's 6th race, the 9/5 favorite was a horse named Hunter's Score, who was usually a consistent sort - often finishing in the money while running "Beyers" in the 52-57 range.

When he made his return from a 3 month layoff this September the 3rd, however, something seemed terrible wrong with the horse. At odds of 3-1 in a field of 7,500 claimers, he didn't run a lick - without a visable excuse - braking 6th by 2, tiring to last by 11 at the (slow) half mile, and finishing the 6 1/2 furlong sprint 9th and last, beaten by 22 lengths...while earning a "Beyer" of 4.

It would have been easy to conclude that something seriousy wrong had transpired with Hunter's Score, causing us to throw him out as a serious contender of a subsequent race...but something very interesting took place which demanded a closer look; the horse was claimed by trainer "extraordinaire" Juan Carlos Guerrero.

In his next start, the horse showed up in the same 7,500 claiming tag as before, and this time ran an improved but still lackluster 4th, beaten by almost 7 lengths, without showing a hint of his decent early speed...going off at 7-2 odds.

And this brought us to yesterday's race, where the horse again faced the same class of horses, while looking no better than a 3rd or 4th choice in this field of 11...but this time his odds were an unappetizing 9-5! I looked to see if there was a compelling argument that could be made for this horse - which I may have missed - but the horse was clearly not the best horse in the race...and in no way did he deserve the play he was getting on the tote board.

It was a classic "underlay" situation which we always used to prey upon for our wagering profits, but - in the current era - the "supertrainers" like Juan Carlos Guerrero have become the hunters...and WE have become the prey.

Hunter's Score won by 6 1/2 lengths...laughing every step of the way...and paying $5.80 to win.

Ddi Hunter's Score show recent workouts?

[proximity]

Originally Posted by TonyK@HSH

Jamie maintained a full barn at Pen for nearly a year but pulled out in September. Win percentage hovered at 17% (Pen only). Pen is a tough place to race right now.

i'd say it was even tougher in 2009 (when ness was 30% at pen) before they ran mr gill out of the track. delahoussaye, adamo, and vitali won about a month's worth of races combined.

conclusion?

competition got easier, but enforcement (or threat of) got tougher.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Spiderman

Ddi Hunter's Score show recent workouts?

No published workouts for 20 days prior to his last start - on November 22nd.

[Spiderman]

Thanks, I asked because he had a 'live' one in 7th, Nov 30 with ywo good works. Horse was bet to under 2-1 and ran-up the track. It was probably too obvious with one work, a bullet - best of 40.