cheap race or high $$$ stakes

[Half Smoke]

...................



which do you feel offers the best opportunity to find an edge

some have said that the high level horses are more consistent

but I've tracked it myself and noticed that the very lowest level - maiden claimers - the faves win just as often as the higher level horses


what is your opinion





thanks




*

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

What do you define as an edge?

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I look to get a read on a race that is different from what the public is seeing. I analyze the last race to see if the race was an non-representative race to make an excuse for a bad race ie. surface, distance, class, jockey error, trouble, etc.
If i find a horse that fits the above label i begin to do a complete work up on the race to see if i can validate the horse as a viable winner today and get value.

[taxicab]

Big fields.....

[CheckMark]

Edges:

Big fields (10+) in stakes

Fields of 5-10 horses in cheap claimers

You are absolutely right about stakes horses being the most consistent but I do find cheap claimers you can find better edges because a lot of them are run every single day (guessing 60% of all races run on a card) whether it is at Gulfstream or Fonner does not matter and you can pick up on patterns that others might not see

Yes you can find edges in those big field stakes races but those are run either on weekends or on big days (Breeders Cup or a stakes day) and are not as frequent as the cheap claimers to find those patterns

That is what I think

[Onesome]

You don't have an 'edge' if your process is so highly dependant on something like only works in low tier races, only works in big stakes, only works on dirt (and not synthetic, *cough* *cough*). My guess over a long enough time frame, your ROI's would look pretty similar between big race/low claimer, dirt/synthetic.

[thaskalos]

I wish every race were a mid-level claimer on the dirt.

[mountainman]

Give me a deep field of cheap(ish) claimers running short on dirt. And throw in a shipper or two for flavor.

My late father often remarked (and dear dad WAS was an acute observer of people) that I couldn't hit a route race if my life depended on it.

[lamboguy]

you can go either way... usually, for me, the stake races are impossible to figure. as luck would have it, I did find a 2-year-old stallion stake race that I bet at Lone Star. the horse I bet lost her first start to a good horse in open company. she moves over to the 2-year-old stake race and faces another horse that came up with a really good number winning in a Texas-bred MSW first time out. both mine and the other horse wound up going off 2-1 and my horse smoked her yesterday.

[AMPHAR]

High stakes races and racing festivals I believe provide value.

Just based anecdotal observations. This past spring I feel Keeneland without the major crowds and bus trips, I believe the favorite win% creeped near 40%.

My conclusion was a more informed crowd. Some friends that bet Keeneland heavily took a bath because their process included throwing out the favorite.

Once the “party” money returns the value might as well. Something to watch.

If you didn’t adjust to this reality you didn’t cash many tickets this past spring at Keeneland.

[Robert Fischer]

My own personal 'voodoo' (I don't have stats/studies to back this up), is that I'm wary of any races where the purse money is small in general and relative to the track's other races.

Still, I find more awful favorites and more horses the public is clueless about in cheaper races.


In big Stakes, you've got over-hyped newcomers, you've got over-the-top fading stars, you've got changing setups where the public is fixed on a 'ranking' based on the '1s' '2s' '3s' rather than the running, and in general there seems to be a bit more consistency in a healthy, top horse pointed for a race with works etc...

[Maximillion]

No preference either way.For me the worst type of races are those that seem to have 8 different versions of pretty much the same horse.I think this is probably most likely to happen in a NW 2 claiming race,When I do get involved in a race like this with a price horse I seem to have a knack for landing on the wrong ones.... and my record over the years in races like this is brutal.

[usfgeology]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Still, I find more awful favorites and more horses the public is clueless about in cheaper races.

This is why I prefer cheaper races.

[delfman]

the best value in racing is found in handicapping breeders cup races run on fast dirt tracks with nice sunny weather
other than that I'd second the answer of mid level claimers at 7f on fast dirt.