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Poll: Which factor contributes most to hot/cold jockeys?
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Which factor contributes most to hot/cold jockeys?

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Old 06-12-2020, 10:23 AM   #1
classhandicapper
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Hot/Cold Jockeys

What factors do you think are most important in the phenomenon of hot and cold jockeys?

How much do you alter your thinking when there is a major rider switch, especially to a hot or cold rider?
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Old 06-12-2020, 11:06 AM   #2
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A good agent goes much further than a Jockeys ability to carry a horse to the wire.
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Old 06-12-2020, 11:21 AM   #3
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I copped out, with voting "All of the Above".


Some of these guys are clearly more talented and/or skilled, than others.


Some of these guys (true or not, Luis Saez?? comes to mind) seem to ride hard for the big money.

The rest, = agents, trainers, owners, health, astrology...
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Old 06-12-2020, 12:06 PM   #4
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One thing missing is their physical health. Hard to ride good with a bad knee, back, or whatever it is.
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Old 06-12-2020, 12:10 PM   #5
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My hunch is there's some validity to it but unless you can come up with a metric to capture it and then test that metric to see if it increases accuracy then it may not be worth paying attention to. I feel the same way about track bias or anything else. I know there is a track bias sometimes but let's see a metric that ends up having some impact on the forecasting.

What I suspect you'll have with a rider on a streak is oftentimes just random variability, but even if the rider's recent string of successes is somewhat random there may also be something to be said for the confidence and state of mind. Maybe that transmits to the horse. It may even be worthwhile as a negative factor but not a positive, i.e. if the rider is hesitant and tentative for whatever reason could be a recent spill or several close calls etc, it wouldn't surprise me if some horses can pick up on that and act accordingly.
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Old 06-12-2020, 02:22 PM   #6
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The horseplayers go through the same hot/cold streaks as the jockeys do...and it usually isn't because they are doing something "different". These streaks are mainly the result of randomness, IMO...and I, personally, don't try to read much into them. If I can have a losing streak...so can a top jockey. After all...our winning percentage expectations are both about the same.
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Old 06-12-2020, 02:45 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by airford1 View Post
A good agent goes much further than a Jockeys ability to carry a horse to the wire.
Excellent Point! And that's the way I voted.
Let me know when the jockeys do the running.
Until then I'll play the horses thank you.
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Old 06-12-2020, 05:34 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922 View Post
My hunch is there's some validity to it but unless you can come up with a metric to capture it and then test that metric to see if it increases accuracy then it may not be worth paying attention to. I feel the same way about track bias or anything else. I know there is a track bias sometimes but let's see a metric that ends up having some impact on the forecasting.

What I suspect you'll have with a rider on a streak is oftentimes just random variability, but even if the rider's recent string of successes is somewhat random there may also be something to be said for the confidence and state of mind. Maybe that transmits to the horse. It may even be worthwhile as a negative factor but not a positive, i.e. if the rider is hesitant and tentative for whatever reason could be a recent spill or several close calls etc, it wouldn't surprise me if some horses can pick up on that and act accordingly.

I'm sure injuries and personal problems impact performance, but I'm starting to think insiders have such a huge edge in understanding changes in a horse's condition, a sharp agent with a hot rider becomes a kind of self reinforcing process. If a jockey has been winning a lot lately and a trainer knows a horse is primed for an "A" effort, he/she will seek out the hot rider, which in turns leads to more winners, which in turn supports the idea that the rider is hot and moving horses up (and vice versa).

The bias issue is another good one. I've been doing some data studies on that, but I'll take it to another thread when I get a chance.
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Old 06-12-2020, 05:47 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I'm sure injuries and personal problems impact performance, but I'm starting to think insiders have such a huge edge in understanding changes in a horse's condition, a sharp agent with a hot rider becomes a kind of self reinforcing process. If a jockey has been winning a lot lately and a trainer knows they have a horse primed for an "A" effort, he/she will seek out the hot rider, which in turns leads to more winners, which in turn supports the idea that the rider is hot and moving horses up (and vice versa).

The bias issue is another good one. I've been doing some data studies on that, but I'll take it to another thread when I get a chance.

"Starting to think" that way
? Come on now! How long have you been at this game? This has been going on for many many decades.

Does anyone really believe that an outsider might have an inkling as to a horses actual overall condition? Perhaps a few that attend the races and know what to look for in an animal's physicality, but that's it!

Someday people (outsiders) might understand what the connotation "Run Happy" really means and the psychological impact it has in this game.
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Old 06-12-2020, 05:51 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post

"Starting to think" that way
? Come on now! How long have you been at this game? This has been going on for many many decades.



I guess I came off more naive than I intended. What I really meant to imply is that insiders have knowledge that impacts the board and during these hot jockey periods we may see it being demonstrated via the riding assignments.
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Old 06-12-2020, 05:58 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post


I guess I came off more naive than I intended. What I really meant to imply is that insiders have knowledge that impacts the board and during these hot jockey periods we may see it being demonstrated via the riding assignments.
I thought so myself. I know you've been around the corner a few times.
They certainly do impact the board. That's why I use it exclusively. Money drives this entire game!
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Old 06-13-2020, 02:25 PM   #12
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The horse, of course, does the running, but the jockey can certainly inhibit it's ability to run well, or place in a position to do it's best. Unfortunately, it is hard to predict gross incompetence pre-race.

If all that mattered were the horse, why have jockeys at all?
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Old 06-13-2020, 09:48 PM   #13
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Keen sense

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Old 06-13-2020, 10:23 PM   #14
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IT is the mounts they get, nothing else. Horses run races, NOT riders.

If, for three weeks, the top stats jockey traded all mounts with a top ten journeyman, that fact would readily be exposed.
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Old 06-13-2020, 10:24 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
.

If all that mattered were the horse, why have jockeys at all?
What do the majority of horse that throw their riders do? They run right with the field, and with no weight to carry, tend to be up front any way.
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