Article/Interview with Andy Beyer

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Question for Stevie B. Take the following example.

Horse A and horse B race 30 minutes apart 6 furlongs dirt.

Both run fractions of 22.2 45.2 110.4

Horse A wins a 4000 claimer with a running line of

1st by 1 length, 1st by 2 lenghts, 1 by 3 lengths and finishes 1st by 4.5 lengths


Horse B wins a 25,000 claimer

3rd by 2, 3rd by 1, 1st nk, 1st by 1


3 weeks later they appear in a race against each other for a claiming tag of

32 k.


Do they have a near equal chance of winning or does horse b have a much better chance of winning. To me it is a no brainer. B has a much better chance of winning. What says you?

If time is time theoretically they would have a near equal chance of winning.
Right?

well it's not just about time.
it's how they ran their time.
and i have no idea about claimers, which does not happen most places.
i guess it also depends on if the nag in 4000 race, is a 4000 nag or is on the up.

all i would offer is that plenty of times(past tense, as not much intersted these days), i have seen maiden winners that i was sure would end up G1 winners, and mostly they did.


but to answer your question, let's run the race first, and ill tell you when i see the result, which one i'll go for!!

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Question for Stevie B. Take the following example.

Horse A and horse B race 30 minutes apart 6 furlongs dirt.

Both run fractions of 22.2 45.2 110.4

Horse A wins a 4000 claimer with a running line of

1st by 1 length, 1st by 2 lenghts, 1 by 3 lengths and finishes 1st by 4.5 lengths


Horse B wins a 25,000 claimer

3rd by 2, 3rd by 1, 1st nk, 1st by 1


3 weeks later they appear in a race against each other for a claiming tag of

32 k.


Do they have a near equal chance of winning or does horse b have a much better chance of winning. To me it is a no brainer. B has a much better chance of winning. What says you?

If time is time theoretically they would have a near equal chance of winning.
Right?

I know you didn't ask mem but I've already tested scenarios like this against my database.

What I did was create an automated class/form rating based on Class Par, Finish Position, Lengths Beaten/Won (adjustment for big wins and if 2 horses crushed a field), Field Size, Age, Sex, Surface, Country and other.

The Speed Figure and Class/Form Rating performed very similarly.

The combination of both of them outperformed either alone.


IMO, there are 2 reasons for that.

1. What I've been describing as differences in reserve energy and talent, the rate at which the horses burn off energy when used and how the races actually developed between the two classes. The times are the same, but the horses are not.

2. Errors in either the speed rating or automated class rating get mitigated by the other and create a more accurate appraisal of what really happened when both are used.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by steveb

all i would offer is that plenty of times(past tense, as not much intersted these days), i have seen maiden winners that i was sure would end up G1 winners, and mostly they did.

As a New Year's gift, I wouldn't want anyone to miss this gem.

[aaron]

I think the best part of s thread is we are still talking about Beyer after 50 years. I also wonder how many of us are as successful at the game as Beyer is. For me personally,I think having Beyer in the game has helped us all.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by aaron

I think the best part of s thread is we are still talking about Beyer after 50 years. I also wonder how many of us are as successful at the game as Beyer is. For me personally,I think having Beyer in the game has helped us all.

Couldn't agree more Aaron. There is probably no more important name in this game for almost 50 years, and it's not abating.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Question for Stevie B. Take the following example.

Horse A and horse B race 30 minutes apart 6 furlongs dirt.

Both run fractions of 22.2 45.2 110.4

Horse A wins a 4000 claimer with a running line of

1st by 1 length, 1st by 2 lenghts, 1 by 3 lengths and finishes 1st by 4.5 lengths


Horse B wins a 25,000 claimer

3rd by 2, 3rd by 1, 1st nk, 1st by 1


3 weeks later they appear in a race against each other for a claiming tag of

32 k.


Do they have a near equal chance of winning or does horse b have a much better chance of winning. To me it is a no brainer. B has a much better chance of winning. What says you?

If time is time theoretically they would have a near equal chance of winning.
Right?

i'll try again.
if you know the answer, why ask the question?

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by steveb

i'll try again.
if you know the answer, why ask the question?

Because imo it seems to contradict some of your posts. I take you at your word that you are a top notch speed figure maker. Yes, speed figures are a big component in evaluating how good a horse is. However who they race against and of course pace components play a big part in evaluating performance imo. It is funny since I posted I listened to Dick Jerardi on a recent Bet with the Best podcast. Seems like back in the day(pre racing times) Beyer figures were so powerful you probably could have made easy money with them sans any other handicapping in the US. These days you need every tool in the box and probably rebates as well just to survive.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Because imo it seems to contradict some of your posts. I take you at your word that you are a top notch speed figure maker. Yes, speed figures are a big component in evaluating how good a horse is. However who they race against and of course pace components play a big part in evaluating performance imo. It is funny since I posted I listened to Dick Jerardi on a recent Bet with the Best podcast. Seems like back in the day(pre racing times) Beyer figures were so powerful you probably could have made easy money with them sans any other handicapping in the US. These days you need every tool in the box and probably rebates as well just to survive.

well, it's open to debate if i have the foggiest about anything.

that said, i think i have mentioned plenty of times, that i think(time) is only 1 piece of the puzzle, and very recently too, if my alcohol befuddled brain remembers correctly.

as far as beyer goes, all i did was read his book, and got inspired.
i can only know what he did for me, but not sure if they(my numbers) are still beyer like or not, as reading him was 30 or more years ago, and things evolve over time.

i don't bet any more(i just play with data), so not qualified to offer an opinion.....but i will anyway!
with citibet or maybe(less so) betfair, then it's not so difficult to win, if you have conviction.