Days Matter

[Capper Al]

The topics have been so boring recently that cappers are discussing handicapping in threads like the one about the professional gambler. Let's spice this up a bit with a very simple topic-- Days Since Last Raced (DSLR).

What will make this topic interesting are not the facts, but the capper's beliefs. Back in the day horses ran every week or every other week. If they missed their routine a handicapper could reasonable suspect something might be wrong. Else wise, why would a barn miss a paycheck? Fast forward to recent times with less horses, less races, more effective training methods, and now days appear not to matter anymore. And here's my point, most cappers today will argue that DSLR is meaningless now. Value players will point out that long layoffs are a good source of profit. And this is mostly true. But guess what you must do with horses coming back after a layoff or horses that haven't been on the track the last 30 days? (Answer below)
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Handicap!

Yea, you have to figure them out. Starting off by looking at the trainer's success rate with returning horses might help. Looking at the race conditions as it applies to the laid off horse might help. Figuring by the horse's age and race type might help. (A three year old in a claimer is a different scenario than a three year in a graded race.) Most laid off horses are still duds. But some just might pay well. What are your thoughts on DSLR?

[JohnGalt1]

Form/condition are one of the three main criteria for me.

As to lay offs, I believe, as have many authors I've read, that if a horse has not raced in 4 weeks (28 days), I consider the horse a lay off horse.

I have set my Bris pp generator to draw the lay off lines at 28 days. The default for the program is 45 days.

Stakes, and other quality race horses are in a different class and can win more frequently than cheapies off lay offs, so my ratings of older races have more relevance.

I will always make a pace line off the most recent race if within 28 days. If the race is not reflective of todays race, say higher class, different distance, and other reasons, I may go back to other races. If I do, I will write the recent figures, and underneath will write the figures for the pace line I use in parentheses.

If off a lay off, I will use the best/fastest line, and will write that pace line in parentheses.

A strong key is if a lay off horse's best race is slower than a horse with a current race, that horse has a low probability to win.

And for horses off 6 months or more I look up the breeding in Sire Stats for FTS breeding and write the letter on my worksheet. After losing to long lay off horses I decided these are similar to a first start. but this definitely is not a prime factor for me.

But a horses with recent races trumps lay off horses most, but not of the time for me.

[ultracapper]

First thing is to determine why the trainer kept the horse out of the races. Was it a freshening, or did the horse have an issue? Trainers have been using layoffs as a method to get the best out of their racers for some time now. It's not unusual for a horse to run it's best race in some time fresh off the layoff. If a horse was running well at short odds, meaning there was expectations, and a trainer gives the horse 50-60 days away from the races, I can usually tell by the work out pattern that the break is being used to crank the horse just a little tighter. If there was a problem, the work out pattern will usually disclose that also. Then again, it's important to know the trainers. RMandella is outstanding tweaking a horse with a short layoff, whereas BAbrams only lays them off if it's absolutely necessary for the horse's well being. He's been quoted as saying if the horse is feeling fine, let it run, even if it's not ready to give it's very best. BBaffert usually has them ready to give a peak performance right off the layoff, whereas JSadler usually wants to get one in them. Sadler is probably one of the very least successful layoff trainers in SoCal. REllis is the master of the "45 day tweak".

Layoffs are a training strategy now, whereas in the 80s when I started handicapping it almost always meant the horse had been dealing with a health issue.

[Dave Schwartz]

Days Since Last Race is one of those factors that is a holdout from a bi-gone era that needs to be taken out and shot.

In my book, Percentages & Probabilities 2012 I presented PROOF of how wrong the old premise was.

Again and again, I have heard horse players say, "Well, I don't care. I am still not going to bet a horse coming off a layoff."

This, despite the fact that they have a higher hit rate AND a better $net than horses coming back in any other time frame.

From my book, I present Quirin's data from 1979 and then my data from a much larger and much new sample.

[Dave Schwartz]

Just to prove that this is no fluke, here is a study from 2008-2010 that is a little more granular.

I do not have a snapshot of this handy but if you looked close, you would find that 31-45 days is the sweet spot, producing the highest hit rate and the highest $Net.

And the high-of-the-high would be 30-35 days.

2010-all.
224-Days
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1-5             1,230    146   11.9  $1.85   0.93   1.15   1.10
6               1,832    219   12.0  $1.39   0.94   1.06   0.99
7               4,952    555   11.2  $1.50   0.89   1.02   0.97
8               4,530    524   11.6  $1.69   0.93   1.05   1.03
9               4,817    562   11.7  $1.32   0.93   1.03   0.96
10              5,017    597   11.9  $1.41   0.95   1.01   0.97
11              5,836    678   11.6  $1.42   0.93   0.98   0.95
12              7,558    889   11.8  $1.44   0.95   0.98   0.96
13             11,420  1,365   12.0  $1.42   0.97   0.99   0.97
14             23,040  2,865   12.4  $1.53   1.02   1.02   1.01
15             13,546  1,638   12.1  $1.52   1.00   1.00   1.00
16             10,339  1,287   12.4  $1.52   1.02   1.01   1.01
17              8,557  1,049   12.3  $1.51   1.01   0.99   0.99
18              8,457  1,059   12.5  $1.49   1.02   1.00   1.00
19              9,960  1,269   12.7  $1.43   1.04   1.02   1.00
20             13,861  1,765   12.7  $1.47   1.06   1.01   1.01
21             18,570  2,329   12.5  $1.52   1.04   0.99   1.00
22             11,180  1,389   12.4  $1.52   1.02   0.97   0.98
23              7,488  1,014   13.5  $1.57   1.12   1.04   1.05
24              5,845    705   12.1  $1.35   0.99   0.93   0.93
25              5,536    692   12.5  $1.49   1.02   0.98   0.99
26              6,460    860   13.3  $1.42   1.09   1.02   1.01
27              8,336  1,087   13.0  $1.59   1.08   1.00   1.03
28             12,038  1,528   12.7  $1.46   1.05   0.98   0.99
29              7,161    928   13.0  $1.56   1.07   1.01   1.02
30              4,803    599   12.5  $1.54   1.03   0.96   0.99
60             68,684  9,081   13.2  $1.55   1.09   1.02   1.03
90             14,733  1,717   11.7  $1.56   0.98   1.00   1.00
120             6,688    702   10.5  $1.41   0.89   1.01   0.95
150             4,538    447    9.9  $1.38   0.83   0.99   0.92
180             3,892    400   10.3  $1.53   0.86   1.00   0.96
210             3,649    332    9.1  $1.31   0.75   0.89   0.84
240             2,770    254    9.2  $1.17   0.75   0.89   0.82
above           1,153    117   10.1  $1.11   0.84   1.00   0.88

Total         328,476 40,648   12.4  $1.50   1.02   0.98


2009-all.
224-Days
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
5               1,344    146   10.9  $1.48   0.87   1.03   0.97
6               2,003    222   11.1  $1.49   0.90   1.06   0.99
7               4,749    568   12.0  $1.71   0.97   1.12   1.08
8               4,798    523   10.9  $1.32   0.89   1.01   0.94
9               4,982    584   11.7  $1.38   0.95   1.02   0.97
10              5,185    624   12.0  $1.51   0.98   1.05   1.01
11              6,236    717   11.5  $1.36   0.94   0.98   0.94
12              8,172    982   12.0  $1.41   0.98   1.01   0.98
13             12,672  1,538   12.1  $1.49   1.00   1.02   1.00
14             23,767  2,896   12.2  $1.51   1.02   1.02   1.01
15             14,931  1,787   12.0  $1.43   1.00   1.00   0.98
16             11,154  1,323   11.9  $1.56   1.00   0.98   0.99
17              9,590  1,126   11.7  $1.43   0.97   0.94   0.94
18              9,379  1,171   12.5  $1.45   1.03   1.00   0.99
19             10,409  1,261   12.1  $1.48   1.00   0.97   0.97
20             13,875  1,708   12.3  $1.51   1.03   0.99   1.00
21             18,173  2,290   12.6  $1.45   1.05   0.99   0.99
22             11,586  1,427   12.3  $1.43   1.02   0.97   0.97
23              7,889  1,008   12.8  $1.50   1.06   0.99   1.00
24              6,437    763   11.9  $1.46   0.98   0.94   0.95
25              6,233    791   12.7  $1.44   1.05   0.98   0.98
26              6,739    881   13.1  $1.55   1.08   0.98   1.01
27              8,723  1,133   13.0  $1.52   1.08   1.01   1.02
28             12,381  1,576   12.7  $1.51   1.07   0.99   1.01
29              7,614    962   12.6  $1.50   1.06   0.98   1.00
30              4,891    675   13.8  $1.65   1.14   1.05   1.08
60             70,971  9,363   13.2  $1.56   1.10   1.03   1.04
90             15,511  1,785   11.5  $1.51   0.97   1.01   0.99
120             6,698    635    9.5  $1.36   0.81   0.93   0.89
150             4,467    415    9.3  $1.48   0.80   0.94   0.91
180             3,915    371    9.5  $1.34   0.80   0.94   0.88
210             3,596    351    9.8  $1.38   0.82   1.00   0.92
240             2,920    245    8.4  $1.22   0.70   0.86   0.80
above           1,232    114    9.3  $1.30   0.77   0.94   0.87

Total         343,222 41,961   12.2  $1.49   1.02   0.97

2008-all.
224-Days
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
5               1,393    163   11.7  $1.71   0.94   1.13   1.07
6               1,909    223   11.7  $1.71   0.93   1.11   1.06
7               4,468    482   10.8  $1.37   0.87   0.99   0.93
8               4,642    527   11.4  $1.56   0.91   1.01   0.98
9               4,985    605   12.1  $1.50   0.97   1.03   1.00
10              5,895    722   12.2  $1.44   1.00   1.04   1.00
11              6,458    784   12.1  $1.59   0.98   1.03   1.02
12              8,511  1,034   12.1  $1.53   0.99   1.01   1.00
13             12,284  1,512   12.3  $1.54   1.01   1.02   1.01
14             22,734  2,822   12.4  $1.53   1.02   1.02   1.01
15             14,607  1,800   12.3  $1.51   1.01   1.01   1.00
16             11,355  1,359   12.0  $1.48   0.98   0.97   0.97
17              9,405  1,218   13.0  $1.53   1.05   1.04   1.03
18              9,366  1,186   12.7  $1.64   1.03   1.00   1.02
19             10,906  1,359   12.5  $1.53   1.02   0.99   1.00
20             13,715  1,735   12.7  $1.53   1.04   1.00   1.01
21             17,830  2,223   12.5  $1.49   1.03   0.98   0.99
22             12,401  1,558   12.6  $1.54   1.04   1.00   1.01
23              8,420  1,093   13.0  $1.49   1.07   1.00   1.01
24              6,824    860   12.6  $1.54   1.04   0.97   0.99
25              6,364    832   13.1  $1.57   1.07   0.98   1.01
26              6,911    919   13.3  $1.48   1.09   1.01   1.02
27              8,467  1,138   13.4  $1.55   1.10   1.01   1.03
28             12,045  1,591   13.2  $1.49   1.10   1.01   1.02
29              7,302    915   12.5  $1.41   1.03   0.96   0.96
30              5,120    675   13.2  $1.63   1.10   1.00   1.04
60             73,055  9,506   13.0  $1.54   1.08   1.01   1.02
90             15,362  1,734   11.3  $1.52   0.96   0.99   0.98
120             6,941    706   10.2  $1.37   0.86   0.98   0.92
150             4,673    410    8.8  $1.24   0.75   0.91   0.84
180             4,143    415   10.0  $1.74   0.84   1.02   1.00
210             3,541    336    9.5  $1.55   0.78   0.96   0.92
240             2,952    270    9.1  $1.33   0.75   0.93   0.86
above           1,304    115    8.8  $1.16   0.72   0.87   0.80

Total         346,288 42,827   12.4  $1.52   1.02   0.98

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

Form/condition are one of the three main criteria for me.

As to lay offs, I believe, as have many authors I've read, that if a horse has not raced in 4 weeks (28 days), I consider the horse a lay off horse.

I have set my Bris pp generator to draw the lay off lines at 28 days. The default for the program is 45 days.

Stakes, and other quality race horses are in a different class and can win more frequently than cheapies off lay offs, so my ratings of older races have more relevance.

I will always make a pace line off the most recent race if within 28 days. If the race is not reflective of todays race, say higher class, different distance, and other reasons, I may go back to other races. If I do, I will write the recent figures, and underneath will write the figures for the pace line I use in parentheses.

If off a lay off, I will use the best/fastest line, and will write that pace line in parentheses.

A strong key is if a lay off horse's best race is slower than a horse with a current race, that horse has a low probability to win.

And for horses off 6 months or more I look up the breeding in Sire Stats for FTS breeding and write the letter on my worksheet. After losing to long lay off horses I decided these are similar to a first start. but this definitely is not a prime factor for me.

But a horses with recent races trumps lay off horses most, but not of the time for me.

Good example. You draw a line like in the old days, but then take a second look at the laid off horses.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

First thing is to determine why the trainer kept the horse out of the races. Was it a freshening, or did the horse have an issue? Trainers have been using layoffs as a method to get the best out of their racers for some time now. It's not unusual for a horse to run it's best race in some time fresh off the layoff. If a horse was running well at short odds, meaning there was expectations, and a trainer gives the horse 50-60 days away from the races, I can usually tell by the work out pattern that the break is being used to crank the horse just a little tighter. If there was a problem, the work out pattern will usually disclose that also. Then again, it's important to know the trainers. RMandella is outstanding tweaking a horse with a short layoff, whereas BAbrams only lays them off if it's absolutely necessary for the horse's well being. He's been quoted as saying if the horse is feeling fine, let it run, even if it's not ready to give it's very best. BBaffert usually has them ready to give a peak performance right off the layoff, whereas JSadler usually wants to get one in them. Sadler is probably one of the very least successful layoff trainers in SoCal. REllis is the master of the "45 day tweak".

Layoffs are a training strategy now, whereas in the 80s when I started handicapping it almost always meant the horse had been dealing with a health issue.

Another good example. Handicap by know thy trainers.

[Capper Al]

Dave,

I like and recommend your book Percentages and Probabilities 2012. Lots of good stats in it. From your book, I check for how many times a horse has worked in a sprint race, and when was the last time the horse was on the track. The late Danny Holmes used to demand twice on the track in the last 30 days. But here is where we part ways. I handicap instead of eliminate a horse based on the stats. And the stats are in your favor, but the profit is in my favor.

[Inner Dirt]

I can remember thoroughbreds on the California fair circuit racing every 3-4 days if on form in the late 70's. It does seem that Harness horses are still racing every week like they were 35 years ago. Since I first went to the track in 1975 higher class horses always had long gaps between races, it was "Old Glue Factory" a lifetime $3200 claimer that had 100 lifetime starts at the age of 5, the Spectacular Bids of the world were racing every 6 weeks or so.

[Overlay]

Even with the changes in racing frequency, I still find "days since last 'good' race" (per Quirin's definition), as opposed to just "days since last race", to be a useful metric.

[GaryG]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

I can remember thoroughbreds on the California fair circuit racing every 3-4 days if on form in the late 70's.

Barry Abrams still does that, although he did it more at Pomona. I think he would like his horses to have something to do at night. A lot of his stock are overraced.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Even with the changes in racing frequency, I still find "days since last 'good' race" (per Quirin's definition), as opposed to just "days since last race", to be a useful metric.

Days Since Last Good Race is a good one.

[Dave Schwartz]

And the stats are in your favor, but the profit is in my favor.

That is all that matters.

[craig chapman]

I would like to a see a study on recency that excludes 2 year olds and all Maiden and Stakes races.
I then think the 30 day rule would work better.

[whodoyoulike]

I wish the PP's would incorporate info if the horse was on the vets list and why. I've seen a vets list published by the CHRB. If the horse was off and not on the vets list nothing needs to be noted.

Al, a good topic.