Form and the Second Derivative

[Capper Al]

For those of you who haven't taken a calculus class, the second derivative is mostly the change in rate. The economy today is still growing, but at a slower and slower rate until, finally, the change will be a negative rate of growth and the economy (or stock market) will decline. Stock analysis keep an eye on this rate of change or second derivative as one of their primary indicators.

Similarly, horse racing has a few popular angles. One angle, looks for consistent improving speed from one race to the next in a horse's last three starts. Another angle, looks at positions in the last three races. Here they want to see the horse close up at the third race back at the first call. Then close up at the second call in the second to last race. And, of course, close up at the stretch in their last race. Both angles show improvement and indicate a high probability that the horse will try to win in today's race.

With these angles, it isn't the speed that's being watched but the rate of change either in the speed or the distance the horse was close up. And if there are any clues to be found for form, keep an eye on rate of change or the second derivative.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

For those of you who haven't taken a calculus class, the second derivative is mostly the change in rate. The economy today is still growing, but at a slower and slower rate until, finally, the change will be a negative rate of growth and the economy (or stock market) will decline. Stock analysis keep an eye on this rate of change or second derivative as one of their primary indicators.

Similarly, horse racing has a few popular angles. One angle, looks for consistent improving speed from one race to the next in a horse's last three starts. Another angle, looks at positions in the last three races. Here they want to see the horse close up at the third race back at the first call. Then close up at the second call in the second to last race. And, of course, close up at the stretch in their last race. Both angles show improvement and indicate a high probability that the horse will try to win in today's race.

With these angles, it isn't the speed that's being watched but the rate of change either in the speed or the distance the horse was close up. And if there are any clues to be found for form, keep an eye on rate of change or the second derivative.

Mike Fiore used a similar approach many years ago. Very popular in Miami, and more than a few made some decent money with it.
http://www.amazon.com/Mike-Fiores-Ho.../dp/B0006CTPR6

He used diagonal lines to indicate improvement (closer to leader, or whatever) 2C to 3C to stretch, etc. Quick and easy.

I coded it using fps, with a flag for improvement of whatever or greater from one segment in whatever race back to the next call in the next race. Mostly the older folks call it. "carrying speed further" or similar labels.

It is WELL worth exploring. It can put you on to some decent prices, especially if it not glaringly obvious to everyone else.

[Capper Al]

I ordered the book. Understanding form is more important than understanding speed. One can buy speed figures.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I ordered the book. Understanding form is more important than understanding speed. One can buy speed figures.

Form is a "condition"metric and therefore the independent variable. Speed is a "performance" metric and is the dependent variable.

Both are important, but as form diminishes speed will decline.

[Robert Goren]

As college physics quiz instructor put it. It is measuring the putting your foot on or taking your foot on the gas. If you are watching a race, you can see it happen. The problem is you don't have a time for when the jockey takes this action. It almost never happens at one of the commonly recorded time point. If you watch a video (Trackus), you probably could get the starting and ending times of this move and you might have something useful. It would take quite bit of research to figure out at what point the numbers show good form. It might be worth it in this day and age where having useful information that nobody else has is golden.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

As college physics quiz instructor put it. It is measuring the putting your foot on or taking your foot on the gas. If you are watching a race, you can see it happen. The problem is you don't have a time for when the jockey takes this action. It almost never happens at one of the commonly recorded time point. If you watch a video (Trackus), you probably could get the starting and ending times of this move and you might have something useful. It would take quite bit of research to figure out at what point the numbers show good form. It might be worth it in this day and age where having useful information that nobody else has is golden.

In my intial post I concurred with the OP by using "speed" as the change variable in the horse's motion and that was incorrect, it should have been "acceleration".

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Cratos

In my intial post I concurred with the OP by using "speed" as the change variable in the horse's motion and that was incorrect, it should have been "acceleration".

I respectfully disagree. What the independent variable is is will the horse be asked to try. If the horse is asked then it depends on his available speed making speed the dependent variable since it follows.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I respectfully disagree. What the independent variable is is will the horse be asked to try. If the horse is asked then it depends on his available speed making speed the dependent variable since it follows.

And this is exactly why watching replays is a MUST.......How will you ever know if the horse was asked or not?

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

And this is exactly why watching replays is a MUST.......How will you ever know if the horse was asked or not?

With graded races, it is safer to assume that they will try. With claiming, it's a guess.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

With graded races, it is safer to assume that they will try. With claiming, it's a guess.

Nothing is SAFE in this game...

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I respectfully disagree. What the independent variable is is will the horse be asked to try. If the horse is asked then it depends on his available speed making speed the dependent variable since it follows.

In all due respect, you introduced the quantitative metric of the derivative and whether a horse is "asked" or not the measureable .metric is acceleratiuon caused by force.

The problem here is what occurs too much in all sports and that is to take the empirical data and "run" with it without understanding "cause and effect."

Yes, the horse's involuntary movements will probably come from the jockey asking, but without the force to propel the acceleration nothing will happen.

I am not trying to take you into quantitative physics, but if you don't have a basic understanding of how motion occurs your conclusions will always be suspect.

In horseracing the calculation is very straightforward by calculating the horse's MJs.

Also it will always depend on the amount of effort you want put into something to get the correct answer.

This is gambling and you have the right to do what you think is best.

[Capper Al]

Speed is usually our introduction to handicapping. Most players never leave the 101 level of handicapping and retake the speed class over and over again always wondering why can't they nail this game. Their problem is that they are not looking at the game as a whole and speed as only a single factor in a game, a game that comprises a multitude of variables. The fastest horse in a race if not asked to win, won't win. It is just that simple, and it is just that difficult.

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Speed is usually our introduction to handicapping. Most players never leave the 101 level of handicapping and retake the speed class over and over again always wondering why can't they nail this game. Their problem is that they are not looking at the game as a whole and speed as only a single factor in a game, a game that comprises a multitude of variables. The fastest horse in a race if not asked to win, won't win. It is just that simple, and it is just that difficult.

there in lies the rub. you can't read the minds of the jockey. you can't anticipate the unfolding of the race scenario. i have heard countless times jocks being asked how will they run their horse in the upcoming race. all you hear is alot of ; ands, ifs, or buts, about their riding strategy.
in otherwords we are dealing with alot of unknowns.

"the people the gods want to make mad, they first let them see the future"

[Tom]

Then you have the NYRA grabbers.
Right out of the gate, the race is lost.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

With graded races, it is safer to assume that they will try. With claiming, it's a guess.

One could argue that handicapping stakes is about the fundamentals of class, speed, form, running styles, trip, pace, bias etc.. because they are almost always trying, almost always sound, and almost always trained by competent trainers.

One could argue that handicapping claiming races is about trying to figure out who is sound and likely to run well today because many are neither and many are also trained by less competent trainers.