NHC 14

[FiveWide]

So the NHC 14 kicked off today. Are there any PA members participating?


-Five

[stuball]

do they have video coverage this year? looked but can't find anything..

Stuball

[FiveWide]

The only video coverage I found was pre tourney stuff. All I found was a live leaderboard link that you have to refresh so it's really not live.


-Five

[PIC6SIX]

I participated and it was a Blast but very fatiguing. This was my first appearance in the NHC finals. I came in 113th. Not bad for a first timer but no where good enough. The difference this year was the double bet on any one of the eight designated mandatory races of your choosing. You could bet $4 W/P vice the usual $2 W/P. The majority of those who scored over $200 most likely doubled on the number 6 horse at Gulf that paid over $50 to win.

[MightBeSosa]

no one mentions last years winner fin 400th something

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by MightBeSosa

no one mentions last years winner fin 400th something

I'd rather finish 1st and 400th than finish 20th twice.

[JimG]

Originally Posted by MightBeSosa

no one mentions last years winner fin 400th something

True, but if your not in the top 40 (getting a payday) it really does not matter where you finish. Some of the best players in tournaments you will see in the top and bottom 10%. You fire at your best long shots throughout the day. Sometimes you hit a few and sometimes you hit none.

[Jay Trotter]

Originally Posted by MightBeSosa

no one mentions last years winner fin 400th something

When you play these tournaments you either "go big" or go home. I've often heard it said that the guys near the bottom likely have a better chance of winning down the road because they are at least taking their shots. The guys in the middle will be just that, in the middle. (In general)

[FiveWide]

Originally Posted by PIC6SIX

I participated and it was a Blast but very fatiguing. This was my first appearance in the NHC finals. I came in 113th. Not bad for a first timer but no where good enough. The difference this year was the double bet on any one of the eight designated mandatory races of your choosing. You could bet $4 W/P vice the usual $2 W/P. The majority of those who scored over $200 most likely doubled on the number 6 horse at Gulf that paid over $50 to win.

Grats Pic6Six on the very respectable placing IMO!


-Five

[PIC6SIX]

Thanks for the Congrats Fivewide. I have been trying for years just to qualify. Before the online contests came into vogue I used to travel with friends to contests at all the mid America tracks like ARL, Hoo, TDN, Kee, Ellis, CDR, Lone Star and others. Not to mention Vegas contests. The tournaments are fluky, I know, but you have to pursue your challenge and dream. My main pursuits now are tournament play and the Pick Six. If one is going to score at this game you have to score BIG. Just my own philosophy.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I'd rather finish 1st and 400th than finish 20th twice.

This is the mentality of some very good horseplayers when they are competing in this tournament. You have to throw actual good horseplaying to the wind and just bet anything that looks decent at 15 or 20-1 and pray you hit a few of them. This is not how horseplayers bet in their everyday lives but in this particular tourney, its a few hundred normally strong players just throwing caution to the wind.

Nassim Taleb would be proud!

[parlay]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

This is the mentality of some very good horseplayers when they are competing in this tournament. You have to throw actual good horseplaying to the wind and just bet anything that looks decent at 15 or 20-1 and pray you hit a few of them. This is not how horseplayers bet in their everyday lives but in this particular tourney, its a few hundred normally strong players just throwing caution to the wind.

Nassim Taleb would be proud!

I don't agree. True you can't bet your short price horse, but
its not a case finding a horse that looks "decent" at a price.
Finding the live long shot is what we all strive for, getting it
to win today is were luck intervenes. This is not the same a throwing
good horseplaying to the wind. The pick and pray aspect only enters the
picture once the player has insufficient picks remaining to allow the
use of lower priced horses.

[Aner]

Was thinking about NHC 14. Richard Grose was the first day leader by a huge margin of $66.60 over second place Jim Benes. Mr. Grose had $235.60 and Mr. Benes had $169.

With such a huge lead Richard Grose must have realized Lady Luck had spend most of the day sitting on his lap. Knowing how fickle Lady Luck is should he have abandoned his plan and played it safe? In retrospect, yes.

I looked up what would happen if he played the favorite in the 8 mandatory races. Three won (no places) for a $29.60 score. Even if he missed all the optional races, that would have been enough to win.

Safe play = $5,000 first day + $750,000 overall = $755,000
Actual play- $5,000 first day + $75,000 overall = $80,000

Ouch!

[stuball]

I think it is impossible to say a conservative strategy would have been better...
too many variables in a tournament..incredible stress to be in the lead...
you have no idea how many bullets your opponents have left..some shoot um
some save um and you have no idea which is which...i'm sure he thought
just 1 hit and i'm home...it said in the article he was a professional so I assume
he has been in this situation before..I have played a few tournaments and thought I was all organized --only to give in to the pressure...experience
is the only teacher in these situations...

Stuball

[Bobzilla]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

This is the mentality of some very good horseplayers when they are competing in this tournament. You have to throw actual good horseplaying to the wind and just bet anything that looks decent at 15 or 20-1 and pray you hit a few of them. This is not how horseplayers bet in their everyday lives but in this particular tourney, its a few hundred normally strong players just throwing caution to the wind.

Nassim Taleb would be proud!

Not entirely true. Sure there is probably a percentage that threw their darts in a qualifying tournament, got lucky and made it to their once in a life time chance for a free roll for $750,000. There is also a very good percentage that approach contests a bit more seriously than that. When you play in a lot of contests you learn over time which ones demonstrate a remarkable consistancy, the kind of consistancy that cannot be explained by simply looking at the tote board and continually choosing 15:1s without having thoughtfully analyzed the event. The key is finding moderate/long odds plays that your own analysis identifies as overlays. Not only overlays but horses that the player can strongly envision ACTUALLY winning given race developments. I know it's hard for some to believe but many of the better and more consistant tournament players are simply better at this than most horseplayers are whether it be in contests or their day to day play. That's not to say they're going to win the NHC every year they're in it as 30 plays over two days isn't reallistically enough time to reliably separate the long-term consistant from those that were hot over a given Friday/Saturday, but they'll always be part of the percentage that has a fighting chance and will certainly make it to this event more than others. When I was 9th in 2008 I wasn't "praying" I'd get lucky on double digit horses I knew very little about, I can assure you, and I did go into the last race at SA loving a 6:1 which I chose in lieu of about six other options at longer odds that would have resulted in a better placing should one of them had won with my backing in the tournament.