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Old 07-12-2016, 10:56 AM   #106
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm rarely going to disagree with any of your specific race complaints. I just think these occasional crawl fests that are pissing people off are an accidental byproduct of doing what is generally correct in turf route racing on both continents (maybe some courses and conditions are exceptions).

Think back to a couple of those SA Breeder's Cup cards when speed was an advantage on dirt. Eventually, the riders got so crazy aggressive they started causing races to collapse even though it was a speed favoring track.

Getting more aggressive was the correct thing to do, but sometimes they over compensated and erred. That's what's happening here. They are trying to back down the paces because it's harder to wire turf routes. But sometimes they are overcompensating and allowing some slug to wire.
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Old 07-12-2016, 11:18 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by cj
That is another myth with no real basis in fact. I don't know how it got started but last time I actually researched racing in England the pace was actually generally faster for turf races than it is in North America.
A considerable percentage of the courses over there feature an uphill finish, some of them with quite a significant grade, so I'd be wary of using times to try to compare Euro pace with North American pace.
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Old 07-12-2016, 11:27 AM   #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm rarely going to disagree with any of your specific race complaints. I just think these occasional crawl fests that are pissing people off are an accidental byproduct of doing what is generally correct in turf route racing on both continents (maybe some courses and conditions are exceptions).

Think back to a couple of those SA Breeder's Cup cards when speed was an advantage on dirt. Eventually, the riders got so crazy aggressive they started causing races to collapse even though it was a speed favoring track.

Getting more aggressive was the correct thing to do, but sometimes they over compensated and erred. That's what's happening here. They are trying to back down the paces because it's harder to wire turf routes. But sometimes they are overcompensating and allowing some slug to wire.

Kind of goes to the "black or white" mentality -- no shades of gray. Either it's perceived as speed biased, neutral or favoring closers. Often the "bias" is pretty limited, nuanced. Thus, when the fractions heat up the speed dies.


Rarely do you see days when horses going, say, 45.0 in turf route will survive going two turns especially if they are dueling. THAT's when you know there is a real plus bias. Happens at times in the summer when it hasn't rained for a while.
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Old 07-12-2016, 11:43 AM   #109
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I don't know what the fractions are, but you can see them finishing stronger than they go out. The racing is more like our turf racing than our dirt racing.
Of course it is, never said any differently. The myth is that people act like they just canter on turf overseas until the last 1/4 mile. That is what I was talking about. It isn't true.
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Old 07-12-2016, 11:45 AM   #110
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Originally Posted by RXB
A considerable percentage of the courses over there feature an uphill finish, some of them with quite a significant grade, so I'd be wary of using times to try to compare Euro pace with North American pace.
It wasn't some rough generality. Course was taken into consideration.
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Old 07-12-2016, 11:50 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by AndyC
No doubt your stats are correct. The problem is that many bettors confuse what it takes for a horse to win on the lead on the dirt with what it takes to win on the lead on the turf.

Exactly, and I've never said any differently. But speed is hardly the detriment some make it out to be in this thread. That was my only reason for posting what I did.

Now, to make the guy happy that didn't like the 1/2 mile call being used, here is the 1/4 mile.

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Old 07-12-2016, 12:13 PM   #112
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Here is dirt at the 2f call, races from 8f through 9f.

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Old 07-12-2016, 02:37 PM   #113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andicap
Kind of goes to the "black or white" mentality -- no shades of gray. Either it's perceived as speed biased, neutral or favoring closers. Often the "bias" is pretty limited, nuanced. Thus, when the fractions heat up the speed dies.


Rarely do you see days when horses going, say, 45.0 in turf route will survive going two turns especially if they are dueling. THAT's when you know there is a real plus bias. Happens at times in the summer when it hasn't rained for a while.

I don't want to veer this thread too far off base, but imo you are exactly correct.

Imagine some "theoretically" normal/average track that produces X% w2w winners.

Imagine some other tracks that carry speed a little better than average or a little worse than average.

In the end, the w2w% will probably not change as much as the tracks/surfaces themselves should dictate because the jockeys will be smart enough to pick up on the variations and alter their level of aggressiveness a bit.

When one of those "biases" happens on a single day, sometimes the riders are smart enough to pick up on it mid card. So by the time you start adjusting your betting to the bias, they've already started adjusting their riding and neutralized the bias (or maybe not). That's what makes it so tough. Not only do have to be able to recognize the bias accurately quickly (which is hard enough), you have to pick up on whether you think the riders have or will adjust.

And of course the people that claim there is no such thing as biases will think they are right if suddenly the races stop going w2w, when in fact the bias is still there but the riders are going out in 44 3/5 instead 45 2/5.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-12-2016 at 02:41 PM.
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Old 07-12-2016, 03:15 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by cj
It wasn't some rough generality. Course was taken into consideration.
You leave few stones unturned. Nice work, as usual.
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Old 07-12-2016, 11:04 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by cj
Here is dirt at the 2f call, races from 8f through 9f.
Much appreciate the info CJ!

Can you break it down to the gate break now? (I'm so kidding )
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Old 07-13-2016, 01:20 AM   #116
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Early speed in turf routes is of value only if a horse actually gets the lead. Beyond that, there is no advantage whatsoever to being placed more forwardly than approximately midpack.

I did my own study of middle distance turf races a few years ago and the horses running in 2nd position after 4f had no significant advantage in win impact value compared to horses running 3rd/4th/5th-- and in fact the horses in 2nd position at the 4f call made fewer appearances in vertical exotics than any of the other top five early running positions.

Last edited by RXB; 07-13-2016 at 01:34 AM. Reason: Clarification
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Old 07-13-2016, 02:56 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
BUT, she might come back at 3/5, get another brutal parade of choking at the SPA and run a tough luck 2nd.
If Imperia might be too obvious, may be worth trying to use Drop Shot (think that's the right name) in some form or fashion.
A little more price. Didn't fly by the winners after the wire, but a little less obvious.

The one thing that 'bothered' me with Imperia was the waiting behind horses.

As part of that stretch run, Imperia kind of came in behind others for a stride or so (IIRC).
That makes it look even better because horse was off the rail and not just skimming up to save ground... But sometimes waiting behind horses for a stride or too seems to actually be a lot more beneficial than it is 'trouble'.
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Old 07-13-2016, 03:06 AM   #118
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Yea, pace is not the place in a turf race...

but when they walk around as of late, early speed can be pretty good.


Part of the problem, is that there may be 3 horses capable of going 47 112, but 2 of them go 49 114 and the 3rd one doesn't ever establish anything...


sit in 2nd or 3rd lately, and at least you've got every opportunity. At least if you belong in the contending group, you get every opportunity.


TLG is right. There's a lot more room for strategic positioning in turtle turf tactics.

Jose Ortiz does a pretty good job of trying to 'take the initiative'.
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Old 07-13-2016, 04:58 AM   #119
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Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
Pot meet kettle
Whatever EMD or I said. It in no way involved you.

The ultimate troll.

Nice
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Old 07-13-2016, 05:03 AM   #120
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
You made the statement (that someone is out there leveraging the change of the game and making money).

I not only responded , that I'm one of them, I proved it (just like you post your contest wins here).

People don't like to see that someone can win real money at this game. It makes them feel even worse (about their inability to do so). I don't blame you for your response, that's human nature.

Why do make time to post here? Because I truly love the game, like most of us here.

You subtly questioned. I politely answered with proof. Don't know what else I can say. I refuse to turn another thread into a Vic pissing match .
Can't be a pissing match. Because I don't care.

I'm quite sure you're a phony. But I don't care about that either.

I don't think you actually want anyone to believe you. It seems like you enjoy just messing with folks.

That's cool. Have fun. I don't care.
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