I need help!!!

[chin123]

I need help with my "system", I'm new to horse racing so don't really know much ....I caught the bug on this last Kentucky derby when we hit the exacta. It wasn't because we knew what we were doing, we were just there for the girls and the beer.. it was nothing special we did , we just heard the names of the horses all week on TV, internet ... so we boxed the four horse and the exacta came in... beginners luck I guess. so the next day I found this website and found the selections thread, I opened a tvg account and started following the picks and that's when the problem began, not because they were bad picks but because i followed everyone's picks and of course the more you play the more you lose.... hit some good ones following the picks but when you play all the picks you end up losing more than you win but like the degenerate that i am i kept depositing money and kept losing. I finally got smart and decided to come up with my own "systems" and sure enough I kept losing, because i kept playing every race at every track....By now I know my system doesn't work in all the races but it does work, its knowing what tracks or races to use it at. I am now sticking to fields of 6-8, that's where my "system" usually comes in...but of course i still end up losing because i pick the wrong horse out of my four horses.... that's what i need help with. with my "system" it narrows it down to 4 horses, the method to my madness is, 1 horse is easier to pick from 4 than it is from 8 but of course, its not since i'm still losing...i know this is long and boring so ill tell you how do my "system". I'm not sure if anyone has done this or does this, i seriously came up with it on my own, it's a stupid and easy system but it's free. So like i said, i have a tvg account, I go to the free handicapping speed and class handicapping tab, on there there are 2 columns avg class and last class. I then add up the numbers for all the horses under each column. the column with the HIGHEST total is the column i use. on a piece of paper, i write the number of horses running for that race EX 1-6, next to the horses number i make 2 columns. the first column will be the highest total column of numbers that i will be using. on the picks and snapshot tab i write the power rating for each horse for the second column. Once i have both columns written out , i then assign a numerical value to each number on the columns, the numbers assigned will depend on the number of horses running. a 1 will be given to the horse with the highest class number and a 6 to the lowest if only 6 horses are running, the same value will be given to the power rating column, a 1 to the highest and a 6 to the lowest. I then add up the numerical value given to each horse, the four horses with the lowest number is the four horses that i use for that race. if 2 horses have the same number on the columns, i give them the same corresponding number. i know it sounds like im rambling but here is an example of how it will look(picked random numbers just for example)

horse avg class/last class (depending on what column adds up higher)
1. 55 4 75 4 =8 power rating cloumn
2. 60 3 83 2 =5
3 55 4 90 1 =5
4. 70 1 79 3 =4
5. 63 2 55 5 =7
6. 45 5 42 6 = 11

one of these four horses usually comes in first sometimes its the favorite sometimes its not, but usually one of them come in. its isolating 1 of the four to come in is the one im having problems with... if i box all 4 for exacta i will still lose money if both favorites come in. Like I said its a stupid system and not complicated, i've made it more complicated by my explanation... it worked this morning on parx1 and Belmont 1, the good thing is, it can be verified if you go back and do it yourself by going to that race to see im not lying . the winner came in out of the four at parx 1 and the trifecta came in at Belmont. so long long story short.... if anyone has a "system" that can be used with my "system" i would appreciate the help. try it out with out betting and see what you think, were all trying to make some money... thanks

[lamboguy]

what i recommend is that you buy the Timeform and learn how to read the numbers. i don't know if they offer seminars or not. try and find the horses that have come out of fast races and go from there. that will give you some type of a starting point. its not 100%, but its as good as any to get you started.

[cashmachine]

I am no expert handicapper, but from description of your system, I would say it is too simplistic to really expect profit. From what I heard and read on this site, winning systems tend to be more complex and in one or other way take into account class of horses, jockey, trainer etc. I would suggest that you should get a good book for beginners to learn a bit how other serious handicappers approach a race. Book won't make you a profitable player but at least you will get some idea what are the most important handicapping factors and how people in general build handicapping systems.

Be aware that because of high house take it is very difficult to consistently make a profit in this game, and simple system based on manipulations of numbers (and you don't know how they were made) is not going to make it.

[Robert Goren]

First rule of gambling; If it ain't working, try something else. Do it now before you get in too deep. You are dead money.

[letswastemoney]

You're better off trying to handicap the traditional way.

Since you have TVG, why don't you buy the TimeformUS PPs through them (there's an option where you can use your account balance to pay for it). They will refund you the next day if you play the card.

Why don't you stick to very small $2 bets until you have a handle on what you're doing?

Maybe look for the high speed figure for now in relation to the race surface (dirt or turf) and distance. (ex. if the race is 1 mile on dirt, look for the horse that has the high speed figure for 1 mile on dirt, while giving less weight to the turf numbers).

[chin123]

thanks for the advise guys, I will definitely look into getting the form and learn how to use it... i do try and stick to 6 dollar exactas so i don't take to much of a hit on each play, the problem is i play all the races because im not sure when its going to hit.

I think its a little too late to get into deep, I've lost quite a bit this last month that's why im on here for the help. lol.... Im not guaranteeing it works on every race but it does work, at least the winner usually comes out of the four......i just don't know what races to use it at....ive been gone all day so i only played the first 2 races that i posted, i got back early enough to play the the 8th at Remington, i ended up hitting the exacta on in that race it payed 226 on 1 dollar exacta

Oct. 4, 2014 08:07 PM E898B5B5737C Remington Park 8 $1.00 EX 1,5,6 / 1,5,6,7,9 $12.00 $226.10


and like i said before, i keep playing all the races because i end up with these kind of payouts and its got me hooked.... ... again , you guys can go in and verify by doing my " system" on that race if you have tvg or any other site that post those stats, if you do do it, you'll see that the favorite is not one of the four or five that used on this one which 9 out of 10 times bites me in the arse for leaving them out ...lol......either way guys, thanks for the input,and i will be purchasing a form and learn how to use it.... i will not be able to see if any of you reply or give any advise for the next couple of days.... heading to vegas for some RR... no horse racing for me in vegas, not ready for the bigtime ...lol.... just sticking to football

[cordep17]

Stare at the card and think about what it means. think about what the trainers think it means and think about how they might change their plan according to what it means. Think about whether the form is lying, and keep wondering whether the form is lying. this game is not easy and it will keep you scratching your head. That's the way it goes, and if you're like me, you'll keep thinking it will eventually make sense and you'll eventually make money.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by chin123

I think its a little too late to get into deep, I've lost quite a bit this last month that's why im on here for the help.

It's never too late to stop something that you are pissing your money away at.
The fact is you are losing, as are most horse players.
But it sounds as though you are losing more than you should be, essentially because YOU REALLY DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING.

1. TAKE A SABBATICAL FROM PLAYING

2. GO TO THE PUBLIC LIBRARY AND READ, READ, READ

3. SYSTEMS SELDOM WORK. IF THEY DO, THEY DON'T WORK LONG.

4. DEVELOP A HANDICAPPING METHODOLOGY AND WHEN YOU THINK THAT YOU KNOW A WINNING APPROACH, TRIAL IT WITH RACES THAT HAVE BEEN RUN TO SEE HOW THE APPROACH IS WORKING

5. BUT THE TRUE TEST WILL BE WHEN YOU TRIAL IT AT THE TRACK

UNTIL YOU HAVE A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF THE GAME:

STOP ! STOP! STOP!

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by chin123

I need help with my "system", I'm new to horse racing so don't really know much ....I caught the bug on this last Kentucky derby when we hit the exacta. It wasn't because we knew what we were doing, we were just there for the girls and the beer.. it was nothing special we did , we just heard the names of the horses all week on TV, internet ... so we boxed the four horse and the exacta came in... beginners luck I guess. so the next day I found this website and found the selections thread, I opened a tvg account and started following the picks and that's when the problem began, not because they were bad picks but because i followed everyone's picks and of course the more you play the more you lose.... hit some good ones following the picks but when you play all the picks you end up losing more than you win but like the degenerate that i am i kept depositing money and kept losing. I finally got smart and decided to come up with my own "systems" and sure enough I kept losing, because i kept playing every race at every track....By now I know my system doesn't work in all the races but it does work, its knowing what tracks or races to use it at. I am now sticking to fields of 6-8, that's where my "system" usually comes in...but of course i still end up losing because i pick the wrong horse out of my four horses.... that's what i need help with. with my "system" it narrows it down to 4 horses, the method to my madness is, 1 horse is easier to pick from 4 than it is from 8 but of course, its not since i'm still losing...i know this is long and boring so ill tell you how do my "system". I'm not sure if anyone has done this or does this, i seriously came up with it on my own, it's a stupid and easy system but it's free. So like i said, i have a tvg account, I go to the free handicapping speed and class handicapping tab, on there there are 2 columns avg class and last class. I then add up the numbers for all the horses under each column. the column with the HIGHEST total is the column i use. on a piece of paper, i write the number of horses running for that race EX 1-6, next to the horses number i make 2 columns. the first column will be the highest total column of numbers that i will be using. on the picks and snapshot tab i write the power rating for each horse for the second column. Once i have both columns written out , i then assign a numerical value to each number on the columns, the numbers assigned will depend on the number of horses running. a 1 will be given to the horse with the highest class number and a 6 to the lowest if only 6 horses are running, the same value will be given to the power rating column, a 1 to the highest and a 6 to the lowest. I then add up the numerical value given to each horse, the four horses with the lowest number is the four horses that i use for that race. if 2 horses have the same number on the columns, i give them the same corresponding number. i know it sounds like im rambling but here is an example of how it will look(picked random numbers just for example)

horse avg class/last class (depending on what column adds up higher)
1. 55 4 75 4 =8 power rating cloumn
2. 60 3 83 2 =5
3 55 4 90 1 =5
4. 70 1 79 3 =4
5. 63 2 55 5 =7
6. 45 5 42 6 = 11

one of these four horses usually comes in first sometimes its the favorite sometimes its not, but usually one of them come in. its isolating 1 of the four to come in is the one im having problems with... if i box all 4 for exacta i will still lose money if both favorites come in. Like I said its a stupid system and not complicated, i've made it more complicated by my explanation... it worked this morning on parx1 and Belmont 1, the good thing is, it can be verified if you go back and do it yourself by going to that race to see im not lying . the winner came in out of the four at parx 1 and the trifecta came in at Belmont. so long long story short.... if anyone has a "system" that can be used with my "system" i would appreciate the help. try it out with out betting and see what you think, were all trying to make some money... thanks

As you seem to realize, this kind of "systems" are completely useless and there have been thousands of people who spent years (and fortunes!) trying to create something similar.

My advice to you and anyone else in a similar position would be to completely forget about the idea of developing something like this and if possible, stay as far as you can from horse betting..

You need to resist to your ego, that is dictating to you, that you are smarter than the crowd and you can do better than the average Joe... It simply does not work like this....

Although, yes, it is (STILL) possible to beat this game, it takes so much effort and dedication, that it does not really worth it. More than this, those who possed the gift and talent of the potential of becoming winning players represent an extreme minority. It is probably easier to become a professional soccer player than a horse bettor...

[Robert Goren]

Your system is crap. No amount of tinkering will make it work. Sorry, but that is the way it is.

If you want a system where adding some numbers together gives you the winner, you are going have to invest a lot of time. And you won't get there with high school math skills.

[joecam]

That reminds me of the first time I went to Yonkers Raceway, my friends father took us there. I didn't know what the Daily Double was so he said just pick a horse in the first race and a horse in the second race, so on the way there I kept seeing 55, the speed limit was 55, the bus was 55 i saw 55 all over the place, so I played a 5 5 double and sure enuf it came in and I remember saying to everybody this is sooo easy, that was 40 years ago and I'm still going........It seems like every body has a similar experience.

[raybo]

Chin,

Don't feel bad, most handicappers began very similarly to what you have done. Coming on here and explaining what you are doing is a good first step. But, be very careful about the "solutions" people offer you. Most, if not all of them have been at this game for years, or decades, and are still losing, just like you.

And, please, DO NOT play other peoples' picks! Unless you know them and have followed every bet they have ever made. Otherwise, you will perform just like they do, and most likely you will lose, because they lose.

I'm interested in what exactly is your reason for gambling, without knowing the game first? If you just like gambling, for the sake of gambling, then get ready to lose your shirt (unless you have a very good income and keep your wager amounts very low).

If you don't just enjoy the gambling, and actually want to learn the game, then stop betting and learn the game. Of course, wagering is part of the game, and while small bets may not hurt your bank account too much, continual losing, over time, will affect your decision making process and affect your discipline (which you seem to not have, by the way - sorry).

If you want to lose less, just wager on fewer races, or fewer horses (you don't have to bet the favorite if its odds are low, for instance). If you can't do one of those 2 things then you are not going to be successful, or even close to being successful, especially so soon in your racing education and experience.

Take a step back, be honest, and ask yourself what you really want. If the honest answer is the excitement and action that betting gives you, then you are already going down a twisty road, and it is likely to get worse, not better. If the honest answer is that you love the game, and just want the entertainment, then figure out how much you can afford to lose and stick to it, and have fun. If the honest answer is that you want to learn the game and become profitable, then stop what you are doing now, and start learning the game, or start learning how to "gamble". You have to either know the game very well, or know how to gamble very well, or even better, both, to have any chance at all of being profitable down the road.

By the way, you do not need more than high school math to crunch enough numbers to be successful, but there are other things you must learn to beat this game. Advanced math, physics, statistics, etc., are not absolutely necessary in order to be profitable.

Now, who's giving you good advice in this thread? That is part of learning the game, you'll have to figure out who those people are and who they are not. Sorry, no shortcuts to that.

Welcome to the forum! There is a plethora of knowledge and racing experience mixed in all these threads and pages. Have fun studying them!!

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by raybo

By the way, you do not need more than high school math to crunch enough numbers to be successful, but there are other things you must learn to beat this game. Advanced math, physics, statistics, etc., are not absolutely necessary in order to be profitable.

Amen

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Amen

Had to put that in there. I was going to reply to Robert's post, but decided it would make no difference, so just a flat general statement seemed best.

My technical background: Junior High - General Math and Algebra 1, High School - Algebra 2, Physics, Plane and Analytic Geometry, and Trigonometry - College - College Algebra and Physics 101, Air Force - basic electronics and computer logic and troubleshooting, Post Military - some Basic programming and Excel spreadsheets and a little VBA. That's it, and most of it I don't use for horse racing, and I do just fine!

Sure, I use the term "velocities" all the time, and in error by the way, if people here prefer "average speed over a distance", that's fine too, I know what those numbers are and that's all that matters to me. I know how to calculate ROI, hit rate, and profit/loss, and I know how to filter data to drill down to the nitty gritty, that's all I need, too. I know nothing about calculus, or logistic regression, or advanced statistics or probabilities or real databases or query language, or real programming, etc..

But, I do know racing, and I do know gambling, and I have the patience of Job, and gobs of discipline, when it comes to wagering, and I don't "have to" win, I just prefer to, very, very strongly.

[dirty moose]

Originally Posted by raybo

If the honest answer is that you want to learn the game and become profitable, then stop what you are doing now, and start learning the game, or start learning how to "gamble". You have to either know the game very well, or know how to gamble very well, or even better, both, to have any chance at all of being profitable down the road.

I think learning how to gamble is way harder than learning the game it self.