S&P Prediction

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

If one is banking on inflation, gold makes some sense - but all we've seen so far is "stag-flation", with only certain items rising in price, and wages remaining relatively stagnant. It's also odd that Western banks don't seem too interested in gold, and in spite of a couple of runs towards $1300, gold is currently range bound. It may take a war to break out of it.

Lots of stories about bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the news these days. Bitcoin never passed the smell test for me, but I didn't realize the inherent deflationary tendencies it has, if Denninger is right:

http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/...ww?post=232141

Also, if you read the comments, it turns out the cryptocurrencies aren't very green either - using quite a bit of electricity for mining.....

the grain prices have been exploding without to much demand for them. however oil looks awful now.

so as far as inflation goes you have some mixed signals. in any event i am not making my decisions on gold based on other commodities, inflation or lack of. i am simply looking into the supply and demand curve and trying to figure out where the inflection points are.

since i have called the bottom on gold it has dropped almost $40 vs. the us dollar. its gone down almost every day for a month now on very light contract volume. this makes me wrong so far but i am not in a panic mode because i buy physical metals.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Is denninger ever right? seriously, I know who he is , but my gut tells he's me he's usually 100% wrong.

I should amend that , I haven't read him in quite a while, too many other sites, and just forget to. I recall liking most of his stuff when I did read. Think I confused him with some market pundit who is rarely right.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

I should amend that , I haven't read him in quite a while, too many other sites, and just forget to. I recall liking most of his stuff when I did read. Think I confused him with some market pundit who is rarely right.

Alton, is it Jim Cramer? Nate Silver?

[AltonKelsey]

No, Cramer is past his due date.

There are a pack of permabears that are right once every century or so.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just went long @ 2416.50 with stop @ 2405

[PaceAdvantage]

stop moved to 2411.25

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop moved to 2413

[PaceAdvantage]

Stop to 2413.75

[PaceAdvantage]

Got a reversal signal at 4pm...closed long @ 2422.75 and am now short @ 2422.75 with a stop @ 2433 lol

[PaceAdvantage]

Exited the short @ 2422.75 so lost commission only there...

Profit for the day = 6.25 points

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Got a reversal signal at 4pm...closed long @ 2422.75 and am now short @ 2422.75 with a stop @ 2433 lol

You took this trade knowing that you had to exit at the close, as you customarily do. Why? Does your system tell you that that last 15-minutes can produce that much value?

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

You took this trade knowing that you had to exit at the close, as you customarily do. Why? Does your system tell you that that last 15-minutes can produce that much value?

Just saw this.

Any system can produce a signal at anytime, as long as you're using a timeframe small enough . 1m, 5m 15m etc.

That said, I'm surprised you'd act on an ES signal so late in the day, for a new trade.

imo, only a highly specialized system designed for that exact period would make sense, anything else would probably give pretty random results. But you have the stats so, maybe you see it as a good play.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

You took this trade knowing that you had to exit at the close, as you customarily do. Why? Does your system tell you that that last 15-minutes can produce that much value?

It's profitable, and has been over the many years tested, so I take it...is it hugely profitable? No. Could I chuck it and continue on whole? Yes. But why throw away money?

I had another "4pm" one today that I failed to post (it was the only trade today). Made a 1/2 point.

Call me a redboarder...

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

It's profitable, and has been over the many years tested, so I take it...is it hugely profitable? No. Could I chuck it and continue on whole? Yes. But why throw away money?

I had another "4pm" one today that I failed to post (it was the only trade today). Made a 1/2 point.

Call me a redboarder...

The reason that I was asking was that I was curious about that “15-minute period.” I also have tested zillions of systems. “Sometimes” when the SPY is closed and the ES and options are still open, you can see some big moves in that 15-minute period. Nice trading!

[PaceAdvantage]

Very, very rarely though...It's usually a snooze-fest and when it does move, it usually finds its way back to where it was at 4pm half the time anyway...

But like I said, I studied it, and it's profitable the way I do it, so I'll continue to take the signals until I see otherwise.