Saratoga tote board

[Tape Reader]

I will be at Saratoga Friday and Saturday. Always play off the tote board. Favorite angle is: <ML at 10MTP and >ML at OFF. I will report back. Best of luck to all!

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

I will be at Saratoga Friday and Saturday. Always play off the tote board. Favorite angle is: <ML at 10MTP and >ML at OFF. I will report back. Best of luck to all!

This is ridiculous. Good luck though.

[dirty moose]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

This is ridiculous. Good luck though.

Hey, whatever works.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

This is ridiculous. Good luck though.

C’mon Guys/Gals, rag my simplistic system. I will buy you all drinks at Siro’s.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

C’mon Guys/Gals, rag my simplistic system. I will buy you all drinks at Siro’s.

Its nothing personal, and I think you know that. Its just about the dumbest thing I have ever heard in my life. There is so much dumb money and connections money and bad tip money up here, I just think its a horrible strategy.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

Its nothing personal, and I think you know that. Its just about the dumbest thing I have ever heard in my life. There is so much dumb money and connections money and bad tip money up here, I just think its a horrible strategy.

I see that your “join date” is 2013. Mine is 2007.

[Ocala Mike]

I would never scoff at tote board systems; like everything else, a given system can work some of the time and have hot streaks that can make you look like a handicapping genius.

A variation of Tape Reader's system is:

1. 20 minutes to post, horse is less than 1/2 its morning line (essentially, OPENS at less than 1/2 the morning line).

2. Horse drifts upward for the remainder of the betting, but never reaches the morning line.

3. System works best with horses not among the first 3-4 morning line choices.

Happy longshot hunting!

[Little Watermelon]

There was a horse running Saturday at Saratoga trained by Nick Esler that took money in his first start and had trouble out of the gate. Horse was 15-1 ML, went off at 9-2, I believe, and didn't hit the board. The ML maker misjudged what the betting would be but the horse ran to his ML odds. I played him based on the troubled trip first out and the money he took in a ten horse field first out.

I don't understand why one would wager based on ML, but if it works for you, that's great. As far as I understand the morning line, it is the maker's prediction of what the final odds on the horse will be, and I don't understand why it would figure into why you would wager on a horse.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by Little Watermelon

I don't understand why one would wager based on ML, but if it works for you, that's great. As far as I understand the morning line, it is the maker's prediction of what the final odds on the horse will be, and I don't understand why it would figure into why you would wager on a horse.

I agree that the ML is often inaccurate and that is built into my analysis. The way I see it there are three variables: ML odds maker, public and "other."

1. If the ML is way off then the public adjusts it and the odds remain adjusted. I’m not interested in this bet.

2. If the ML is accurate and "other" causes lower early, public corrects it to accurate late. This catches my attention. I like to see a big drop below the ML early and then a rise above ML late. I typically jot down the odds around 10 MTP. At Saratoga there is usually enough money in the pool at that time for a good sample.

[duncan04]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

I see that your “join date” is 2013. Mine is 2007.

What difference does that make?

[PICSIX]

In races with no scratches....play horses with M/L between 5 & 15 to 1 if off odds are double the M/L. Pass the race if there are more than 3 horses that qualify.

[NY BRED]

not for nothing, the real money generally appears DURING the race
which I thought had been "cured".

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

I will be at Saratoga Friday and Saturday. Always play off the tote board. Favorite angle is: <ML at 10MTP and >ML at OFF. I will report back. Best of luck to all!

Interesting system.

[Tor Ekman]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

I will be at Saratoga Friday and Saturday. Always play off the tote board. Favorite angle is: <ML at 10MTP and >ML at OFF. I will report back. Best of luck to all!

So how did your tote board system do over the weekend?

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman

So how did your tote board system do over the weekend?

I won. But because I did not have it well documented I did not post for fear of Red Board Police.

On Friday I hit an exacta box for $340 (6-1 over 24-1). On Saturday I hit second race exacta box for $55.50 (5.50-1 over 2.65-1). I also hit exacta box $26.80 and triple box $123 in last race (.95-1 over 8-1 over 10.30-1). I used a slight variation of what I originally posted in that I boxed the contenders early, and not all of them may have ended >ML. Also, on the second day I did a lot of socializing and missed betting several races.

When I was a kid (Catholic school) we had to write “I do so declare” on all test papers indicating that we did not cheat. I got smacked a lot but never for cheating.

I do so declare, Tape ReaderJ