Question: For Those Who Had Gronkowski? Exacta?

[TheGarMan]

So, as part of my attempt to learn a little something from each defeat, I will admit, I had ZERO monies today on #6 Gronkowski...

In a field of 10, some cuts had to be made. It seemed I was within all reason to draw a line through a horse who:

1) Hadn't started in America....
2) Had never run more than a mile....
3) Had never run on real dirt....
4) Seemed to have a bit of a "gimmick" factor due to the name
5) Had no strong figures to back up his performance

So, for those who had him, and hit the exacta, what was it that made you hit the button?

Was it Chad Brown?
Was it the way he looked in recent works?
Was it just a lucky stab?

What did I miss?

[jay68802]

Won his last 4 races, showed he has some ability. Only the winner had more wins. Had the right running style for the race. Coming to America and the surface change put some doubt there, but considering the rest of the field he at least had a chance to be up there.

[Robert Fischer]

=

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

...

....

DETAILED ANALYSIS: The 'race for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place in the Belmont Stakes will be decided by a 'Loser's Game' and not a 'Winner's Game'.
-Sure... Perhaps Vino Rosso will fire and 'win' 2nd.
Tenfold has some fringe potential of 'winning' a runner's-up placing as well. He was third-best in the Preakness, but faltered a bit late. He also faltered just a touch at the end of the Arkansas Derby in spite of the pace carrying horses late. Unreliable, but also has potential to 'win' 2nd...

But failing a race where Vino and/or Tenfold 'put it all together', - second place in this Belmont is going to be a 'Loser's Game'. In a loser's game we may have 7 contenders (Vino Rosso, Tenfold, Blended Citizen, Hofburg, Free Drop Billy, Gronkowski, Restoring Hope) and 5 or 6 members of that group will 'lose' 2nd. The only 'non-loser', (or the best trip out of the couple of 'non-loser's) will get 2nd by default. The key to value in a #SUPERFECTA will be sorting those horses out.

...

GRONKOWSKI - Hasn't proven that he doesn't belong in the 'Loser's Game' for 2nd/3rd/4th. Price isn't great, but has to be included. Distance is not a worry; He would have zero chance at a Mile in the United States, but as stated he fits here at a 1.5Miles.
...

[TiffaniO]

Originally Posted by TheGarMan

So, as part of my attempt to learn a little something from each defeat, I will admit, I had ZERO monies today on #6 Gronkowski...

In a field of 10, some cuts had to be made. It seemed I was within all reason to draw a line through a horse who:

1) Hadn't started in America....
2) Had never run more than a mile....
3) Had never run on real dirt....
4) Seemed to have a bit of a "gimmick" factor due to the name
5) Had no strong figures to back up his performance

So, for those who had him, and hit the exacta, what was it that made you hit the button?

Was it Chad Brown?
Was it the way he looked in recent works?
Was it just a lucky stab?

What did I miss?

Simple... Chad Freakin’ Brown!

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

Simple... Chad Freakin’ Brown!

Gronk already had a good foundation, somebody "developed" this horse for 3 year.....he had 4 wins and a place

He was already winning long before Brown got him somewhere around May 8th.

He was sick before the KY Derby, so basically Brown gave him 2 breezes at 4F and 5F ----

At any rate, any horse with an 80% ITM rate, most of them wins, deserves a second look.

[TiffaniO]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Gronk already had a good foundation, somebody "developed" this horse for 3 year.....he had 4 wins and a place

He was already winning long before Brown got him somewhere around May 8th.

He was sick before the KY Derby, so basically Brown gave him 2 breezes at 4F and 5F ----

Uh huh... He would’ve finished last with Jeremy Noseda today.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

Uh huh... He would’ve finished last with Jeremy Noseda today.

Again, Noseda gave the horse his foundation.

Are you claiming that Brown "trained" him w/2 breezes?

This cracks me up.

Horse was running ITM 80% and mostly wins, under Noseda.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

Uh huh... He would’ve finished last with Jeremy Noseda today.

Yea, unless your saying its chemical Brown even said there wasnt much he could do with him in the month other then send him to the track.

[TiffaniO]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Again, Noseda gave the horse his foundation.

Are you claiming that Brown "trained" him w/2 breezes?

This cracks me up.

Horse was running ITM 80% and mostly wins, under Noseda.

I’m saying Brown induced his best effort. There’s a reason he’s 30% and Noseda is not.

And actually you can do a lot with a horse in that time. I bought a horse that eased for Maiden 5000 at the end of August one year and on September 20 he won a Md Sp Wt by 10 lengths and was guaranteed by my trainer that he could not lose!

The first time with a high percentage trainer is almost always their best race.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Yea, unless your saying its chemical Brown even said there wasnt much he could do with him in the month other then send him to the track.

That's what I was going to say but didn't want to introduce any semblence of chemicals into the conversation.



"Brown noted he’s had limited time to work with Gronkowski since the transfer and said it sometimes takes horses up to six months to fully adapt to his training methods.

Gronkowski has breezed twice at Belmont Park for Brown, going four furlongs in 47.99 seconds on May 26 and five furlongs in 1:01.87 on June 2.

“'This was a very unique situation with this horse … and it really takes a special horse to be able catch up to speed and be ready to run in a race like Saturday,” Brown said. “Based on what I’ve seen so far, I do feel he’s up for it.'"


Obviously, he wasn't saying that breezing the horse twice comprises "training" and "foundation".....he admitted he got a horse who was pretty much already "up to it." The owners had given him the option to not run, but he liked the horse and thought he had it together already.


BTW, for those complaining about china horse club, et. al......Phoenix, who owns Gronk, is an investment fund led by Amer Abdulaziz....they have many foreign investors. They have plenty of horses with Baffert as well. Baffert appears to be the triainer of choice for foreign investors/syndicates these days.

[TiffaniO]

Originally Posted by clicknow

That's what I was going to say but didn't want to introduce any semblence of chemicals into the conversation.



"Brown noted he’s had limited time to work with Gronkowski since the transfer and said it sometimes takes horses up to six months to fully adapt to his training methods.

Gronkowski has breezed twice at Belmont Park for Brown, going four furlongs in 47.99 seconds on May 26 and five furlongs in 1:01.87 on June 2.

“'This was a very unique situation with this horse … and it really takes a special horse to be able catch up to speed and be ready to run in a race like Saturday,” Brown said. “Based on what I’ve seen so far, I do feel he’s up for it.'"


Obviously, he wasn't saying that breezing the horse twice comprises "training" and "foundation".....he admitted he got a horse who was pretty much already "up to it." The owners had given him the option to not run, but he liked the horse and thought he had it together already.

A Raving Beauty will never lose if she’ll be even better after the 6 month mark. Lol

In all seriousness, that’s all “Coach speak”. Be humble and Don’t draw anymore attention to yourself than necessary.

Chad Brown, Brad Cox, Tom Amoss and Bob Baffert are the trainers that I have almost blind faith in to improve a horse immediately. They are amazing.

[MadVindication]

Pretty much what has been said. He had a lot of first place wins. I bet on him being proven to want to pass other horses. I figured that when horses get tired mentally and physically the herd instinct could set in even more.

Only found one race replay of his easily/free online and it looked like a really explosive closing move. I didn't like that style for his race, honestly, but the fashion he did it in to me it was like Gronk'ski was holding a sign saying "Will pass other horses! Bet on me."

Plus he's a pretty big horse. Grits said she seen him live and he had a "wow factor'...you know with all the talk about "he's trying something so new blah blah' on TV that comment really helped me not get talked out of him.

But he scared me then surprised me. Good recovery. Great race. He didn't like to be behind there you can tell when you see him start motoring instead of just chasing.

And I think J Ortiz the home track jock must have helped his chances of course.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by TiffaniO

Chad Brown, Brad Cox, Tom Amoss and Bob Baffert are the trainers that I have almost blind faith in to improve a horse immediately. They are amazing.

Love Brad Cox and Tom Amoss, too. Also Brown.

Sorry, but not a Baffert fan, on a personal level.

Somebody recently asked about Cox because of his win rate, kinda implying he must be cheating, I had to laugh, cuz you know, a midwest trainer can't possibly be any good LOL He's top trainer at Oaklawn

[GMB@BP]

Baffert gets talented horses who perform well, same with Brown.

Amoss and Cox get a lot of horses with so so form and suddenly improve dramatically.

I think its clear where I make the distinction.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Baffert gets talented horses who perform well, same with Brown.

Amoss and Cox get a lot of horses with so so form and suddenly improve dramatically.

I think its clear where I make the distinction.

After the Thyro-L episode, I truly do not now how you can say that, but whatever. Young horses dying (possibly because they are taking meds for illnesses they don't have and aren't diagnosed with) is a distinction *I* make.

You can have Baffert. Success is defined in different ways by different people, I guess.