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Old 11-14-2017, 12:35 PM   #31
thaskalos
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But if one is talking about the overall quality of a horse, ability to adapt is part of it. I think Curlin also won on grass, and I believe was placed in a Grade 1 or 2 on Belmont turf.
On the dirt, I would take Gun Runner...and on the turf I would choose Curlin. There is no need to ask these horses to "adapt" in order to prove their "quality", IMO. Our game is highly situational...and the race-conditions figure prominently in the handicapping process.
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Old 11-14-2017, 01:06 PM   #32
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On the dirt, I would take Gun Runner...and on the turf I would choose Curlin. There is no need to ask these horses to "adapt" in order to prove their "quality", IMO. Our game is highly situational...and the race-conditions figure prominently in the handicapping process.
It IS highly situational, and that further proves my point. You would only take Gun Runner on a dry dirt track (and that's highly debatable, IMO).
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Old 11-14-2017, 01:31 PM   #33
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It IS highly situational, and that further proves my point. You would only take Gun Runner on a dry dirt track (and that's highly debatable, IMO).
I dare say that, in the vast majority of the cases...these 2 horses would find themselves on dry dirt tracks. And, whether debatable or not...I think that Gun Runner is the better "dry dirt" horse.
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Old 11-14-2017, 07:27 PM   #34
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Curlin won 6 times at distances more than 9 furlongs. Starting with the Derby, he ran 10 of 13 races at greater than 8 furlongs.

Over his final 14 months of racing he won every time he ran on dirt.

He won the JCGC and BCC at 3 (after running in all 3 TC races). Gun Runner ran in the Penn Derby and BC Mile, and won neither

Curlin won more G1 races than Gun Runner.

Curlin is the better horse, his dirt resume is better even though he spent countless races running in spots that only Jess Jackson would've put him. Curlin ran over grass, synthetic, he won races on 2 different continents. If he had stuck to his bread and butter he could won another 5 G1 events.

The only reason Gun Runner won anything at 10 panels is because Arrogate lost a step (or he hates Del Mar, take your pick on the reasoning)

The first 3 times that Gun Runner won a G1 event, Breaking Lucky was on the board. Let's just stop the "Gun Runner Legend" right there.
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Old 11-14-2017, 09:58 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Rex Phinney View Post
Curlin won 6 times at distances more than 9 furlongs. Starting with the Derby, he ran 10 of 13 races at greater than 8 furlongs.

Over his final 14 months of racing he won every time he ran on dirt.

He won the JCGC and BCC at 3 (after running in all 3 TC races). Gun Runner ran in the Penn Derby and BC Mile, and won neither

Curlin won more G1 races than Gun Runner.

Curlin is the better horse, his dirt resume is better even though he spent countless races running in spots that only Jess Jackson would've put him. Curlin ran over grass, synthetic, he won races on 2 different continents. If he had stuck to his bread and butter he could won another 5 G1 events.

The only reason Gun Runner won anything at 10 panels is because Arrogate lost a step (or he hates Del Mar, take your pick on the reasoning)

The first 3 times that Gun Runner won a G1 event, Breaking Lucky was on the board. Let's just stop the "Gun Runner Legend" right there.
Lets not get carried away talking about competition. These are the horses that ran 2-3 in Curlin's wins as a 4yo:

Familiar Territory and Jet Express (Dubai Prep)
Asiatic Boy and Well Armed (Dubai WC)
Einstein and Barcola (Foster)
Past the Point and Wanderin Boy (Woodward)
Wanderin Boy and Merchant Marine (JCGC)

It isn't like Curlin was trouncing a bunch of future Hall of Famer horses as a four year old.

Side note: Curlin never won on turf as some thought here. He ran second in his lone try to Red Rocks.
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Old 11-15-2017, 09:32 PM   #36
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Lets not get carried away talking about competition. These are the horses that ran 2-3 in Curlin's wins as a 4yo:

Familiar Territory and Jet Express (Dubai Prep)
Asiatic Boy and Well Armed (Dubai WC)
Einstein and Barcola (Foster)
Past the Point and Wanderin Boy (Woodward)
Wanderin Boy and Merchant Marine (JCGC)

It isn't like Curlin was trouncing a bunch of future Hall of Famer horses as a four year old.

Side note: Curlin never won on turf as some thought here. He ran second in his lone try to Red Rocks.
The difference is as a 3YO Curlin raced against the likes of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday even Rags to Riches.

When running in Dubai a horse is battling the surroundings as much as the other horses, traveling halfway around a planet and winning big time races is not easy, nor is coming back and keeping form. He did both.

How mayn horses have won the JCGC and BCC at 3? (I seriously don't know, seems like probably not many)
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Old 11-15-2017, 09:41 PM   #37
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The difference is as a 3YO Curlin raced against the likes of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday even Rags to Riches.

When running in Dubai a horse is battling the surroundings as much as the other horses, traveling halfway around a planet and winning big time races is not easy, nor is coming back and keeping form. He did both. I'd even argue Curlin wasn't quite the same when he came back. Speed figures certainly seem to indicate he wasn't.

How mayn horses have won the JCGC and BCC at 3? (I seriously don't know, seems like probably not many)
Plenty 3yos have won both individually, though obviously many BC Classic 3yo winners didn't run in the JCGC before. Seems more an oddity than an accomplishment.

As for Dubai, Gun Runner did basically the same thing, the only difference is he ran into Arrogate and a track that probably wasn't the best for his style that day. He came back in better form than ever and has held it ever since.

Both are obviously really good horses. I just don't understand people's insistence on downgrading recent horses when comparing them to those of the past. There is probably a name for it but I've never looked. Like the Joe Montana, or even Johnny Unitas, was a better QB to Tom Brady and it isn't close argument. Seems silly to me, and I consider myself an older guy now at 50.

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Old 11-16-2017, 11:27 AM   #38
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Plenty 3yos have won both individually, though obviously many BC Classic 3yo winners didn't run in the JCGC before. Seems more an oddity than an accomplishment.
This is the sort of thing I mean when I say that some NY fans have never really accepted what the BC did to their races.

The JCGC WAS an extremely important race pre-BC. Now, it really isn't- it's a prep, not really much different from the Awesome Again. In fact, recent JCGC's have been weaker than the Awesome Again because trainers don't want to prep at 10 furlongs

So at this point winning the JCGC isn't anything to fawn over, unless the xield comes up particularly strong.

(Dubai has done the same thing to the Santa Anita Handicap. The only one in recent years that meant anything was the one that drew Game On Dude, Will Take Charge, and Mucho Macho Man.)
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Old 11-16-2017, 02:59 PM   #39
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Plenty 3yos have won both individually, though obviously many BC Classic 3yo winners didn't run in the JCGC before. Seems more an oddity than an accomplishment.

As for Dubai, Gun Runner did basically the same thing, the only difference is he ran into Arrogate and a track that probably wasn't the best for his style that day. He came back in better form than ever and has held it ever since.

Both are obviously really good horses. I just don't understand people's insistence on downgrading recent horses when comparing them to those of the past. There is probably a name for it but I've never looked. Like the Joe Montana, or even Johnny Unitas, was a better QB to Tom Brady and it isn't close argument. Seems silly to me, and I consider myself an older guy now at 50.
Gun Runner is a good horse and I'm not downgrading him because of any kind of "good ole days" dismissal.

Their 4YO seasons could be considered similar (seeing as Curlin won in Dubai, and Gun Runner won the BCC, call those equal accomplishments.)

The 3YO seasons though, they just aren't even in the same galaxy. Couple that with all the times Curlin competed, and won, at longer races and IMO it just isn't a worth while comparison.
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Old 11-16-2017, 03:31 PM   #40
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Gun Runner is a good horse and I'm not downgrading him because of any kind of "good ole days" dismissal.

Their 4YO seasons could be considered similar (seeing as Curlin won in Dubai, and Gun Runner won the BCC, call those equal accomplishments.)

The 3YO seasons though, they just aren't even in the same galaxy. Couple that with all the times Curlin competed, and won, at longer races and IMO it just isn't a worth while comparison.
No doubt Curlin was the better race horse at 3, but I don't think he ever reached the same level Gun Runner is at right now at 4. That is all I was trying to say. In a race at 4, I'd take Gun Runner.

I didn't mean you were using the "good old days" dismissal, sorry about that. It was just something I've seen in the thread in general.
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Old 11-19-2017, 11:47 AM   #41
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A huge difference between Curlin and Gun Runner. Steroids were legal during Curlin's career...
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Old 11-19-2017, 11:54 AM   #42
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If Gun Runner is to become comparable to Curlin, I'd like to see him win a few more times at the classic distance. It's really bothersome to me that all these classic races in New York are now 1 1/8 mile. The difference between a great horse and cheap speed is carrying that speed at the classic distance. Great horses have stamina, and 1 1/8 mile distance is classified as a miler stamina wise. That was a great race by Gun Runner, but historically his accomplishments are suspect only because the racing secretaries in New York have compromised him.
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Old 11-19-2017, 12:02 PM   #43
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If Gun Runner is to become comparable to Curlin, I'd like to see him win a few more times at the classic distance. It's really bothersome to me that all these classic races in New York are now 1 1/8 mile. The difference between a great horse and cheap speed is carrying that speed at the classic distance. Great horses have stamina, and 1 1/8 mile distance is classified as a miler stamina wise. That was a great race by Gun Runner, but historically his accomplishments are suspect only because the racing secretaries in New York have compromised him.
There are only a couple chances these days to win at the classic distance. Kind of hard to hold it against the horse in my opinion. Gun Runner clearly showed it isn't any issue for him at this point in his career.
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Old 11-19-2017, 12:09 PM   #44
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If Gun Runner is to become comparable to Curlin, I'd like to see him win a few more times at the classic distance. It's really bothersome to me that all these classic races in New York are now 1 1/8 mile. The difference between a great horse and cheap speed is carrying that speed at the classic distance. Great horses have stamina, and 1 1/8 mile distance is classified as a miler stamina wise. That was a great race by Gun Runner, but historically his accomplishments are suspect only because the racing secretaries in New York have compromised him.
I agree with what you are saying. I think 10F being is a better test of the kind of speed and stamina we should look for in champions. However, off that last race I don't think there's much doubt he's very effective at 10F at this stage in his career. It's not that unusual for horses that may have found 10F less than ideal early in their 3yo career to be able to handle it later as they get bigger and stronger.

If you look at a lot of 2yo races, plenty of races/horses collapse at 7F or 1 1/16th but some of the horses eventually stretch well.
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Old 11-19-2017, 01:19 PM   #45
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Would Asmussen enter a rabbit to use up Gun Runner?
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