TVG must be really hurting

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by omar2

THE GOAL OF THIS GAME IN CASE YOU FORGOT IS TO INVEST THE MINIMUM TO MAKE THE MAXIMUM AND NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND!

Respectfully, for many people the goal is to be long-term profitable.

While this approach would not be my personal cup of tea, if someone can make it work, so be it.

However, in this age, they won't get to make it work for long - unless they are at a physical race track, with a lot of cash money, because an ADW (or a casino) will eventually refuse their action completely.

As for "INVEST THE MINIMUM TO MAKE THE MAXIMUM ", I hear people all the time who say that they'd never bet a horse less than (say) 5/1 (or whatever), and then do a 3-horse box for $10 ($60 bet) and be thrilled to get back $120.

Of course, that is called getting EVEN MONEY.

Dave

[thaskalos]

In every other business or investment venture...people put a relatively large amount of money down, and are satisfied with a small percentage of it as a yearly net return. Only in gambling do some people think that they can rapidly turn a toothpick into a lumber yard. I wish them good luck...because they are sure to need it.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In every other business or investment venture...people put a relatively large amount of money down, and are satisfied with a small percentage of it as a yearly net return. Only in gambling do some people think that they can rapidly turn a toothpick into a lumber yard. I wish them good luck...because they are sure to need it.

Exactly right.

Most winners I know are grinders of some type.

[Half Smoke]

..................


ever notice how many stories there are about big wins at the track


and how few, if any, stories there are about big losses


I guess almost nobody loses big at the track


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[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In every other business or investment venture...people put a relatively large amount of money down, and are satisfied with a small percentage of it as a yearly net return. Only in gambling do some people think that they can rapidly turn a toothpick into a lumber yard. I wish them good luck...because they are sure to need it.

I'm still a grinder, but I don't think I could make a living that way if it were my soul source of money. The problem is the game is so stacked against the average Joe, swinging for the fences is the only way people think they have a chance to make stacks. Between takeout and CRW teams, which further increase the takeout a lot, it is very, very tough to grind. You have to be super selective IMO.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

I'm still a grinder, but I don't think I could make a living that way if it were my soul source of money. The problem is the game is so stacked against the average Joe, swinging for the fences is the only way people think they have a chance to make stacks. Between takeout and CRW teams, which further increase the takeout a lot, it is very, very tough to grind. You have to be super selective IMO.

True...it's very hard to make a living grinding. But when you make your living "swinging for the fences", the meals are few and far between...and that's also very hard to bear. The fact that making a living grinding is very hard to do doesn't make "swinging for the fences" a more feasable pursuit...IMO.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

True...it's very hard to make a living grinding. But when you make your living "swinging for the fences", the meals are few and far between...and that's also very hard to bear. The fact that making a living grinding is very hard to do doesn't make "swinging for the fences" a more feasable pursuit...IMO.

Agree - AGAIN!

Had an old friend - Ron Cox - who made his living from racing. (He had a newsletter that he sold: The Northern California Track Record as well.)

Dan Montillion was his partner in that effort, as I recall.

When I met him (1993, I think), he told me that he played for big hits.

For 5 straight years he made over $250,000 per year. (Died just a couple of years later while still in his 40s.)

He said that at the end of every year he could trace his profit down to 8 days at the track.

I recall saying, "That's like selling Christmas trees and not knowing which month Christmas will be in this year."

He responded by telling me that, at the current meet (Bay Meadows, I think) he was $25,000 loser.

(Personally, I am a WINNING recreational player, but certainly NOT a PROFESSIONAL player.)

[Half Smoke]

.....................


I played blackjack as an Advantage Player both full and part time

when I did it part time it was a lot of fun

when I did it full time it sucked - and I gave it up very quickly



.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Agree - AGAIN!

Had an old friend - Ron Cox - who made his living from racing. (He had a newsletter that he sold: The Northern California Track Record as well.)

Dan Montillion was his partner in that effort, as I recall.

When I met him (1993, I think), he told me that he played for big hits.

For 5 straight years he made over $250,000 per year. (Died just a couple of years later while still in his 40s.)

He said that at the end of every year he could trace his profit down to 8 days at the track.

I recall saying, "That's like selling Christmas trees and not knowing which month Christmas will be in this year."

He responded by telling me that, at the current meet (Bay Meadows, I think) he was $25,000 loser.

(Personally, I am a WINNING recreational player, but certainly NOT a PROFESSIONAL player.)

It's a scary thought to depend on only 8 days for your entire yearly profit. What if he had decided to take those 8 days OFF?

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

True...it's very hard to make a living grinding. But when you make your living "swinging for the fences", the meals are few and far between...and that's also very hard to bear. The fact that making a living grinding is very hard to do doesn't make "swinging for the fences" a more feasable pursuit...IMO.

Oh no doubt, I was mostly talking more about the weekend type warrior that is firing away but doesn't do it for a living. They have left the straight pools and are firing away at P4/5/6s. That in turn makes the grind even harder IMO.

[stlseeeek]

LOL that people actually bet with TVG

they were NEVER a good option.

So many betting sites, and so many sports books that are giving you 7% on ALL of your horse bets thru them.

[MJC922]

I was a grinder when I did it full time but that was two decades ago. Back then I followed it every day, attended live racing almost every day, focused on one track, knew the horses, trainers, riders and trips. Now with a day job there's not much I can possibly have in common with 'that' guy. I simply have no time to even look at racing until after work hours and by then my eyes are stinging from working in front a monitor all day long.

When I retire maybe I'll get more serious about it again, right now at best it would be a part time supplemental income. Nothing wrong with that. Unfortunately what I find works for me now is very very limited tbh.

I find that I'm most effective now when I find a very solid horse in a race ON-PAPER, like an obvious horse that almost everyone lands on by default, and it may be a smaller field sometimes, but that's ok. These are the races to focus on IMO because of the obvious horse.

Then I watch a bunch of replays and the smaller field can make this a lot more feasible, so maybe spend a half hour or 45 minutes on the one race getting a good feel for the abilities etc, I have my numbers of course, plus the replays. At this point sometimes I have one horse that I find I like just as well or sometimes even better than the favorite, many times they have even been running in the same race with the favorite, all the better, and because the favorite is usually bet fairly hard in these races you're usually getting a square enough price on the other horse you're leaning toward. Now when post-time comes around I'll jump on about 20 minutes to, and I'll watch the paddock and post parade like the old days because I still have some things I look for which I know from years of observation are significant negatives, sometimes it takes me off my horse and sometimes the favorite is showing negatives which strengthens my opinion further, especially if it was a threat to bounce etc. I'm also looking at doubles as TLG and others suggested so I now treat those probables as fixed odds that way I have a fairly good line on what I'm going to get paid.

Again I look at this as a way to level the playing field and play similar to the way I did in the old days. I can't do it every race, it's not feasible anymore unless you're knee-deep in it everyday. As I said in some previous posts in the old days my standout horses were all off the overnight. If i needed to see the form for the race then it probably wasn't going to be a prime betting situation.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by stlseeeek

LOL that people actually bet with TVG

they were NEVER a good option.

So many betting sites, and so many sports books that are giving you 7% on ALL of your horse bets thru them.

For racing, I assume you are talking about bookie-sites that do not co-mingle.

Of all of those I've ever known, my experience is that they are very inhospitable to winning players. They just hate writing checks.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by cj

Betfair.

Betfair is owned by flutter.

So the answer is Flutter.

Allan

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

For 5 straight years he made over $250,000 per year.

He said that at the end of every year he could trace his profit down to 8 days at the track.

you would have to know all the details to actually calculate it

but even not knowing them it's a sure bet that his variance (variability from the average) on the types of bets he was making was thru the roof




he could easily have gone 3 years making ZERO and then made a million his 4th year


not for me at all
I wouldn't be happy camper




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