What are appropriate Expectations for Handicappers

[RonTiller]

I just finished reading the New Pace thread, in which the battle of Patrick versus Dave (and Patrick versus making a living as a professional handicapper) reared its ugly head once again. I don't mean this to be a continuation of that thread. Having myself spoken to Patrick many times and having attempted to explain how brutally difficult it is to make a steady stream of income handicapping, how brutal the competition is and how he almost certainly had unrealistic expectations, it got me wondering. What are realistic expectations when one uses a tool, like a handicapping program or a set of handicapping reports or a handicapping system?

Background to this question:

When I first got involved in handicapping, shortly after meeting Jim Cramer, Tom Hambleton, John Marone and Ron Ambrose in Las Vegas, I assumed that all the book writers, like Jim Quinn, Mark Cramer and Tom Brohamer ("essayists" as a friend called them) were betting thousands of dollars a race and living like kings on their winnings. So my first win and place bets of $200 seemed like an appropriate baby step. Ha! That was an unrealistic understanding more that an unrealistic expectation.

Since then, I have spoken to people who have all sorts of expectations regarding their handicapping life with a new program, system or report (or even with free picks!!!):

Some expect to supplement their income in retirement
Some expect to make millions
Some expect to turn around decades of losing
Some expect to win tournaments
Some expect to make enough to pay next month's rent
Some expect to make enough, with hard work no doubt, to quit their job
Some expect to hit some good long shots
Some expect to hit a life changing pick 6 or other exotic

Nobody, it seems, expects to have more fun
Nobody, it seems, expects to merely lose LESS than they did before
Nobody, it seems, expects to become absorbed in data analysis
Nobody, it seems, expects handicapping and data analysis to dominate their waking hours
Nobody, it seems, expects to find new ways to make losing bets or new losing horses to bet on
Nobody, it seems, expects to find a rewarding and challenging pastime which will not, in the end, pay for itself with winning bets (neither does golf, league bowling, butterfly collecting or reading spy novels)

And to make this clear, my experience is that although people in general may not expect to have more fun or get absorbed in data analysis (and actually find it a rewarding pastime), many find that is exactly what happens.

So here's the question:

What are reasonable (or appropriate) expectations for handicappers? Do these vary depending on how one handicaps (with a printed set of PPs, a thousand dollar program, a free program, a database, etc.

My question is not intended to bring out the [fill in the blank]-is-better-than-[fill in the blank] crowd or the Only-[fill in the blank]-works crowd. We all know by now where the lines are drawn in the sand on those issues, and who stands where.

If Patrick is being used as an example of unrealistic expectations, what are realistic expectations (not for Patrick - that has been covered ad nauseum - but in general). Is there a sliding scale of reasonable expectations? If I do everything "right" should I expect to make lots of money? have fun? have a satisfying pastime? alienate my spouse? Should different people have different expectations?

And for software vendors, how do you handle expectations and especially, how do you handle what you think are unreasonable expectations?

Ron Tiller
HDW

[Robert Goren]

The only expectation that a bettor should have is to be given a fair shake by the people run racing. That is not always happening now. I knew what it took to making a living betting horses because as college kid I knew some one who did. I knew that life was not for me. It has always been a hobby for me even in retirement. I have made a little money over the years, but it has not been easy and it hasn't been much. I am not sure that making money with these takeout rates even with rebates is possible unless you really pick your spots. There are two spots that come to mind where a really sharp person can make money. I recently had a thread on one of them. There is another thread going on it now.

[Tom]

Dick Schmidt always taught that the first you had to do was define your goals. That made sense. You have to have a goal - be it to break even ( a perfectly acceptable goal!), to supplement your income by $X a month, or to make your living off the races.

He and Tom Hambleton also conducted a "boot camp" in Vegas for those who were serious about winning. I doubt too many would be willing to put in the work that was required.

And that is the key - how much are you willing to put into the game? If you are not willing to make a 100% commitment to the work, every day, you have no business having lofty goals of a good life from the races. If you only play on Saturday and buy your "form" on the way to the track, and you break even, be happy.

If you are willing to do your handicapping for whatever session you are planning, be it the Toga meet, the BC weekend, a contest today, or the whole winter at Tampa Bay, you should expect to make some money most of the time, if you are willing to use some kind of money management and bet enough to cover the take and break. But you have to realize that the randomness of the game might eat you alive at any given session through no fault of your own or your program or method or tea leaves.

You must keep records. Without records, you have no idea what is going on. If your records tell you that your method is a winner, you have to realize that in spite of that, any single event might be a loser and not keep trying to change your game plan chasing a winner. You have to believe the records, and they will tell when you have to make changes.

In sort, you can expect to get out it what you put into it most of the time.
But not always.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by RonTiller

I just finished reading the New Pace thread, in which the battle of Patrick versus Dave (and Patrick versus making a living as a professional handicapper) reared its ugly head once again. I don't mean this to be a continuation of that thread. Having myself spoken to Patrick many times and having attempted to explain how brutally difficult it is to make a steady stream of income handicapping, how brutal the competition is and how he almost certainly had unrealistic expectations, it got me wondering. What are realistic expectations when one uses a tool, like a handicapping program or a set of handicapping reports or a handicapping system?

Background to this question:

When I first got involved in handicapping, shortly after meeting Jim Cramer, Tom Hambleton, John Marone and Ron Ambrose in Las Vegas, I assumed that all the book writers, like Jim Quinn, Mark Cramer and Tom Brohamer ("essayists" as a friend called them) were betting thousands of dollars a race and living like kings on their winnings. So my first win and place bets of $200 seemed like an appropriate baby step. Ha! That was an unrealistic understanding more that an unrealistic expectation.

Since then, I have spoken to people who have all sorts of expectations regarding their handicapping life with a new program, system or report (or even with free picks!!!):

Some expect to supplement their income in retirement
Some expect to make millions
Some expect to turn around decades of losing
Some expect to win tournaments
Some expect to make enough to pay next month's rent
Some expect to make enough, with hard work no doubt, to quit their job
Some expect to hit some good long shots
Some expect to hit a life changing pick 6 or other exotic

Nobody, it seems, expects to have more fun
Nobody, it seems, expects to merely lose LESS than they did before
Nobody, it seems, expects to become absorbed in data analysis
Nobody, it seems, expects handicapping and data analysis to dominate their waking hours
Nobody, it seems, expects to find new ways to make losing bets or new losing horses to bet on
Nobody, it seems, expects to find a rewarding and challenging pastime which will not, in the end, pay for itself with winning bets (neither does golf, league bowling, butterfly collecting or reading spy novels)

And to make this clear, my experience is that although people in general may not expect to have more fun or get absorbed in data analysis (and actually find it a rewarding pastime), many find that is exactly what happens.

So here's the question:

What are reasonable (or appropriate) expectations for handicappers? Do these vary depending on how one handicaps (with a printed set of PPs, a thousand dollar program, a free program, a database, etc.

My question is not intended to bring out the [fill in the blank]-is-better-than-[fill in the blank] crowd or the Only-[fill in the blank]-works crowd. We all know by now where the lines are drawn in the sand on those issues, and who stands where.

If Patrick is being used as an example of unrealistic expectations, what are realistic expectations (not for Patrick - that has been covered ad nauseum - but in general). Is there a sliding scale of reasonable expectations? If I do everything "right" should I expect to make lots of money? have fun? have a satisfying pastime? alienate my spouse? Should different people have different expectations?

And for software vendors, how do you handle expectations and especially, how do you handle what you think are unreasonable expectations?

Ron Tiller
HDW

In my opinion, the typical horseplayer wants to win...but he severely underestimates the time and effort it takes to accomplish this goal.

After years and years of failure (usually as a result of lack of discipline and self control), he gravitates to the computer handicapping programs (or any other "sophisticated" methods)...which, he hopes, will make a winner out of him by doing the thinking for him.

Ironically...these "sophisticated" handicapping methods ARE NOT best suited for the crowd that is most attracted to them!

They are NOT really for losing players trying to turn their games around; ideally...they are for WINNING players trying to increase their edge in this game.

The losing player, IMO, still has "holes" in his game (and in himself) that he needs to address...BEFORE he purchases these sometimes expensive computer systems...and before he starts blaming the system creators for his failure in this game.

You need to totally immerse yourself in this game, if you want to win...

There are no consistent profits out there for the "hobbyist", regardless of what he might think...and what "sophisticated" methods he might be using.

[Handiman]

The simple answer from the KISS book is I expect the same thing from handicapping as I do from Golf. And that is a great deal of frustration and maddening fun. But I keep at it and have for years because of that one 'Great shot' that rears it's head once in a great while and seduces me into thinking that I can really play the game of Golf.

It's much like that $56 winner I had at Mountaineer last night, but got off of because of course my program couldn't have had that horse figured right, It certainly shouldn't be 2.8-1 as my computer screen said it should be. But the 27-1 horse ran just like a 2.8-1 horse should and the payout seduced me into thinking, Hey I can play this game.

Or is this game playing me?


Handi

[detective]

Hi,

I play the races full time for a living. I had a few medical problems this last year so I have had to take time off but I am back in full swing and I will turn my data for my computer back on Nov. 1 This handicapping by hand stuff sucks! Your realistic expectations can only come from record keeping. I hit 30% winners at 4-1 or higher odds on the win end and I do this day in and day out. I only pass a race if the horse or horses I like are below 4-1. This gives me a 50% profit on my win bets. You need a big edge so if you have a few days when you are not that hot your ship will stay afloat. People who say they have a 5% edge on the game and I say go get a job. This is way too much work to accept a low return. You just need records and if your numbers are low see where you can improve. If you are just playing for fun your roi does not matter that much. Look at the game as a hobby. I spent 2,500 snow skiing a few years back and I never made any money skiing. I for years sucked at maiden races so I went out and I figured out how to handicap the babies and now 20 years later I'm writing a book about them! If you use a program like bettor keep track it will show you what areas you are great at and stick with those. So many people learned how to handicapp from a friend or uncle and the problem is their friend or uncle did not really know how to handicap. so bad handicapping was passed on to them and most people are to lazy to learn a new way or take the time that is needed to do it right. Keep records but I know you can get 30% winners at 4-1 or higher because I do it day in and day out.

[Light]

I think you should have zero to negative expectations as a casual player. First it's the most likely outcome and secondly if you come out ahead you will be pleasantly surprised.

If someone decides to be professional I think it takes more than just discipline, keeping records, ability, etc. It takes the ability to manage your emotions and ego. This is the hardest part IMO because if you don't it is guaranteed to destroy your bankroll.

[PhantomOnTour]

My expectations are to win; to show a wagering profit at the end of the year.
I have not been happy for two years...I will be happy at the end of 2011.

Your expectations should be in direct correlation to how much time you spend on the card.
Don't buy the form 30mins before the first race and get upset when you lose.

A realistic expectation for a dedicated player who chooses to become an expert at some aspect(s) of handicapping (trips, from cycle analysis, figs...whatever) is PROFIT.
My only advice is that you stick to one circuit and really get to know the trainers and horses.

[Robert Goren]

There is one thing I can't emphasize enough. Hard work alone will not turn a profit. You have to be smart about what you do as well. You can't get there without hard work, but if you keep making dumb moves you will lose even if you work hard..

[Robert Fischer]

I may be wrong, but if you use a good tool or system it may be appropriate to expect a loss of near or less than takeout.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by detective

Hi,

I play the races full time for a living. I had a few medical problems this last year so I have had to take time off but I am back in full swing and I will turn my data for my computer back on Nov. 1 This handicapping by hand stuff sucks! Your realistic expectations can only come from record keeping. I hit 30% winners at 4-1 or higher odds on the win end and I do this day in and day out. I only pass a race if the horse or horses I like are below 4-1. This gives me a 50% profit on my win bets. You need a big edge so if you have a few days when you are not that hot your ship will stay afloat. People who say they have a 5% edge on the game and I say go get a job. This is way too much work to accept a low return. You just need records and if your numbers are low see where you can improve. If you are just playing for fun your roi does not matter that much. Look at the game as a hobby. I spent 2,500 snow skiing a few years back and I never made any money skiing. I for years sucked at maiden races so I went out and I figured out how to handicap the babies and now 20 years later I'm writing a book about them! If you use a program like bettor keep track it will show you what areas you are great at and stick with those. So many people learned how to handicapp from a friend or uncle and the problem is their friend or uncle did not really know how to handicap. so bad handicapping was passed on to them and most people are to lazy to learn a new way or take the time that is needed to do it right. Keep records but I know you can get 30% winners at 4-1 or higher because I do it day in and day out.

In my long horseplaying career...I have met 5 or 6 players who have claimed to hold a 50% edge on this game.

Upon further questioning...they have all confessed that they bet between $12 and $18 per race...

I hope you are the exception...

[pondman]

Originally Posted by detective

Hi,

I hit 30% winners at 4-1 or higher odds on the win end and I do this day in and day out. I only pass a race if the horse or horses I like are below 4-1. This gives me a 50% profit on my win bets. You need a big edge so if you have a few days when you are not that hot your ship will stay afloat. People who say they have a 5% edge on the game and I say go get a job.

Glad to see someone else is saying this-- couldn't have said it better. I pass many more races than I play.

To answer the OP:

I haven't read the other thread. But I don't think there is a substitute for experience. Being there, betting, and recording it. You have to have a feel for it, before you quit your day job. I don't think you get much in a book. I think you need to have your own niche, your own data. If your expert system is on the front end to data, I think you will do okay. I have my doubt about generic software. I have my doubt about the math people. I don't thing the business works anything like people assume it does.

Furthermore, two pros will have different opinions on the same race. I don't think there is a one size fits all betting methodology. You stay with what works for you over time.

Can you make a fortune at the track? Yes. Can you have profitable expectations? Yes. For example, Golden Gate opens on Thursday. My expectation are to net at least 11k by the end of the year at the Gate. How can I do this? I've studied the place for years. However, if you saw me sitting in my office at SA, you'd think I got off on the wrong bus, because I probably wouldn't be paying attention to the races at all, unless they were running on turf at SA, or there was a really good placement of a horse-- maybe Patterson or Sutherland coming back on a recent maiden winner at 15-1.

[Casino]

Hard work doesnt guarantee anything,but without it you have no shot.

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by detective

Hi,

I play the races full time for a living. I had a few medical problems this last year so I have had to take time off but I am back in full swing and I will turn my data for my computer back on Nov. 1 This handicapping by hand stuff sucks! Your realistic expectations can only come from record keeping. I hit 30% winners at 4-1 or higher odds on the win end and I do this day in and day out. I only pass a race if the horse or horses I like are below 4-1. This gives me a 50% profit on my win bets. You need a big edge so if you have a few days when you are not that hot your ship will stay afloat. People who say they have a 5% edge on the game and I say go get a job. This is way too much work to accept a low return. You just need records and if your numbers are low see where you can improve. If you are just playing for fun your roi does not matter that much. Look at the game as a hobby. I spent 2,500 snow skiing a few years back and I never made any money skiing. I for years sucked at maiden races so I went out and I figured out how to handicap the babies and now 20 years later I'm writing a book about them! If you use a program like bettor keep track it will show you what areas you are great at and stick with those. So many people learned how to handicapp from a friend or uncle and the problem is their friend or uncle did not really know how to handicap. so bad handicapping was passed on to them and most people are to lazy to learn a new way or take the time that is needed to do it right. Keep records but I know you can get 30% winners at 4-1 or higher because I do it day in and day out.

Hello Detective,

A few questions here........if you do not mind sharing:

(a) How many DIFFERENT tracks do you play? (No need to mention the specific ones.).
(b) On a yearly basis, about how many plays do you end up making?
(c) Do you look for plays just about every day of the year, or are the days you play limited to the specific season(s) for the tracks that you play?
(d) How do you insure that you are getting 4-1 win odds higher? Do you base it on historical info (from a database), or are you wagering right at/near post time like 1 MTP, Post Time, PT minus 30 seconds, PT minus 60 seconds, etc.?

[detective]

(a) How many DIFFERENT tracks do you play? (No need to mention the specific ones.). I play three States, NY, CA, KY I do throw in Gulf Stream in the Winter.
(b) On a yearly basis, about how many plays do you end up making?
Every day I make about 10 bets. It depends on if I get the odds. Sometimes I only get 8 plays. It works out to 2,400 plays a year on average. Sometimes higher or lower.
(c) Do you look for plays just about every day of the year, or are the days you play limited to the specific season(s) for the tracks that you play?

I play every day except Monday and Tuesday but I do play Monday when Saratoga runs or if it's a dead Presidents day.
(d) How do you insure that you are getting 4-1 win odds higher? Do you base it on historical info (from a database), or are you wagering right at/near post time like 1 MTP, Post Time, PT minus 30 seconds, PT minus 60 seconds, etc.?

I bet with 2 min to post and if odds drop to 3-1 oh well. Most of the time that does not happen. If I can cxl the ticket I do that and I put in conditional wagers as well but that has failed in the past. I bet on horses with much higer odds of course but I did my home work over the years and for me it's 4-1 or higher. I wish I could bet on horses like Frankel or Cigar but I give those plays to my Mom. She just likes to cash not make money at it. If I handicap a race and the chalk looks great at 4/5 I just sit it out but I will buy a exacta if I think I can get a price behind the favorite but most of the time I pass. I do bet at times two horses to win if they both have good odds. I never bet a 8/5 with a 4/1 but if one horse is 11/1 and the other 4/1 I bet. Take a look at Precision by wong or Bob Pitlaks new book PC tools For The Thoroughbred Handicapper both books lay out on the math that you need to do to help you win. The hours and hours it takes to make money at the game is worth it to me but remember you won't have much of a life. If I could be a Dr. I would be better off or some other field it just ended up I do this. I am no Allen Woods when it comes to bank roll but I do pay the bills and have some left over. But I am nuts as well...