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06-11-2011, 12:12 AM
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#1
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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My Belmont Analysis
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06-11-2011, 12:23 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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I agree completely...
There is nothing this field can do from a pace standpoint to hamper him so to me it is essentially following him around the track waiting for him to die. In that scenario I'll take the best horse of this crop, 3rd or 4th choice in this race  , trying to take it gate to wire and if his breeding gets him beat so be it.
I like Nehro in the second spot as I don't think AK, MOH, or BS have any tactical speed whatsoever and that the Derby will be proven to be an aberration by the performances of those three who I like for the third spot.
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06-11-2011, 04:10 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 19
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No Tactical Speed
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Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
I agree completely...
There is nothing this field can do from a pace standpoint to hamper him so to me it is essentially following him around the track waiting for him to die. In that scenario I'll take the best horse of this crop, 3rd or 4th choice in this race , trying to take it gate to wire and if his breeding gets him beat so be it.
I like Nehro in the second spot as I don't think AK, MOH, or BS have any tactical speed whatsoever and that the Derby will be proven to be an aberration by the performances of those three who I like for the third spot. |
I'm not sure how you can say AK has no tactical speed whatsoever. He used tactical speed to great advantage in the Derby laying just behind the first group of horses in 8th. He was not a deep closer in that race. In the Preakness he just had a horrible start and had to come from way back. I don't see how AK can lose this race unless he's just dog tired which it doesn't appear he is.
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06-11-2011, 05:29 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Bossier City, Louisiana
Posts: 756
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I like it!! superfecta..10-12/ 3-6-9-10-12/ then flop. Still deciding who to add in spot 3 and 4. 2 more horses
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06-11-2011, 06:45 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Shackleford won't make it into the money. My call 9-6-10.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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06-11-2011, 07:12 AM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 2,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
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ehhhhhhh Santiva and Brilliant Speed flying fast at the wire? 
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06-11-2011, 08:25 AM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
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The only thing I was suprised by was your projected odds. Are you suggesting 5-2 is a fair price on Shack? I assume you'll get 7-2 or 4-1.
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06-11-2011, 08:25 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Turf Sonic
I'm not sure how you can say AK has no tactical speed whatsoever. He used tactical speed to great advantage in the Derby laying just behind the first group of horses in 8th. He was not a deep closer in that race. In the Preakness he just had a horrible start and had to come from way back. I don't see how AK can lose this race unless he's just dog tired which it doesn't appear he is.
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"I don't think AK, MOH, or BS have any tactical speed whatsoever and that the Derby will be proven to be an aberration"
It was late.
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06-11-2011, 08:38 AM
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#9
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Basically this race comes down to one thing. You either believe that Shackleford can get a mile and half or you don't. If you do, you will get handsomely rewarded if you are right. If you don't, Animal Kingdom looks pretty good. I am looking at an exacta box on the two. I just don't like anybody else here at all. Which means the way I have been going lately, you should dutch the rest.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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06-11-2011, 08:47 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,594
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I think Animal Kingdom or Shackleford will win just based on the percentages of Derby and Preakness winners facing each other. I will throw in Ruler on Ice and Stay Thirsty as my longshot picks so win on  ,  and 4 horse ex box
, ,  ,  . Considering my deposit and quick loss in the Derby no actual money will change hands for this race.
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06-11-2011, 09:04 AM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
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Just noticed the Brooklyn/Belmont will-pays in another thread - looks like Shack could be 7-1 or 8-1. That seems like a fair price, even for those who doubt he can get the distance.
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06-11-2011, 09:09 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,767
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i think that shack will be less than 6-1 over 6-1 he is the value in the race. i still like Nehro though, he has plenty of upside to him that you can't read on a piece of paper.
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06-11-2011, 09:20 AM
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#13
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
The only thing I was suprised by was your projected odds. Are you suggesting 5-2 is a fair price on Shack? I assume you'll get 7-2 or 4-1.
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Not only am I suggesting it, I typed it right at the top of the home page, in a big ol' font to boot.... 
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06-11-2011, 09:43 AM
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#14
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,829
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I wish you luck of course, but one thing I've learned over the years is figures at other distances have very little to do with which horses will win at a mile and a half.
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06-11-2011, 09:45 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,767
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master of hounds has gone back forth over the atlantic ocean twice in last 2 months. mucho macho man worked to fast before this race, but worked good.
i got no other knocks on this race, it should be a great one!
the $64k question is, CAN NEHRO GET BY SHACKLEFORD?
my fair odds for SHACKLEFORD is 5.4 -1
for Nehro on paper 6.9-1
the odds are the difficult part because those numbers only reflect prior races and pace, and not for any improvemets. i say Nehro improves in a big way making his price lower than the 6.9-1.
this will be a great race even if i lose, you will see a very competetive field with good horses in it.
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