Thaskalos on the 10-cent super...EXPANDED EDITION!

[thaskalos]

There are as many handicapping and betting methods as there are horseplayers, and this applies to the superfecta as well. What I say here is sure to be refuted by some...especially by those who have had success with this wager by utilizing completely different methods than the ones I employ. There is more than one way to skin a cat.

Since I am not known for my brevity, I hope that PA will indulge me by allowing me to start a new thread on the 10-cent super...so I can fully expand on the pros and cons of this fascinating wager.

I will present the information in parts - thus keeping my posts of acceptable length - and I invite all those with questions to please post them here; I promise to address all questions as promptly as I can.

HANDICAPPING FOR THE 10-CENT SUPER

I am a "numbers" player, and I have spent many years trying to use my "numbers" to create a PERFORMANCE RATING...which I could use to neatly compare the different horses in a given race, with a certain level of precision. Although I have not succeeded to an extent which would allow me to achieve the precision necessary in order to profit with WIN wagers...I have been able to meet the MAIN challenge presented by the superfecta, which is...RATING THE HORSES ACCURATELY ENOUGH TO PROPERLY STRUCTURE MY TICKETS.

I know that the vast majority of the exotic players out there have similar rating methods of their own...so I will not start off by discussing the theory of "number crunching". Instead, I want to talk about how these numbers are applied in the superfecta.

DISCIPLINE

It behooves the player to realize that most races are not suitable for a serious wager...even when using the "spread-out" format of the 10-cent super. This is, after all, a HIGH TAKEOUT bet...and we still have to pick our spots if we hope to be successful in the long run. When a handicapper starts dealing with "precise" units of measurement, he often thinks that he can spot even minute differences between horses...and finds a play in every race. These differences are more apparent than they are real...and they are not as significant as the numbers make them out to be.

We all have our unique strengths and weaknesses as players, so, from now on, I will present things from MY point of view...and in the way that I use them.

I don't bet the superfecta in races where there is not enough information with which to properly rate the horses in relation to one another.

NO maiden races with first-time starters or sketchy PPs...NO grass races with horses of unknown turf running ability...NO races filled with horses coming from long layoffs - as is usually the case when a new racing season begins. In short...NO BETTING ON RACES WHERE THE CURRENT ABILITY OF THE HORSES IS IN QUESTION.

With the number of races currently at our disposal, we can be as selective as we want to be...and STILL have as much "action" as we can handle.

I don't want to make these posts too long, so I will stop here for today...and I will return tomorrow to discuss the all-important subject of properly structuring the superfecta tickets.

Thanks for your time!

[GameTheory]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Since I am not known for my brevity, I hope that PA will indulge me by allowing me to start a new thread on the 10-cent super...so I can fully expand on the pros and cons of this fascinating wager.

Why are people so worried about brevity? Please, over-explain this -- talk me to death so I get every nuance, and use lots of examples. Have at it. Thank you.

[windoor]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

With the number of races currently at our disposal, we can be as selective as we want to be...and STILL have as much "action" as we can handle.

Another huge turning point for me.

I remember well the days when I went to the track with intentions of only playing a couple of well qualified horses.

More often than not, one would scratch and the other would go off at low odds.

This had me looking in the form for something I might have missed, and I could always find a nice odd horse that "almost" qualified and is now going off at good odds.

Needless to say, I could take what should have been a small losing day and turn it into a monster of a losing day. This has happened to me many, many times. (I am a slow learner)

Anyone that had read my post's, knows that I stress Patience and Discipline above all things.

With the advent of simulcast and PC wagering I can now very easily wait for the right horse to come along. In fact, I tightened up the rules so much, I can now be profitable. Go figure.

Consider me subscribed to this thread, and I eagerly await for what follows.

Regards,

Windoor

[raybo]

Well, so far so good. I agree with everything thaskalos has said so far.

If you gotta have action or you're in a hurry, the super, 10 cent or otherwise, isn't going to be kind to you. Horse race gambling involving undisciplined/uneducated wagering, especially in the exotics and, specifically, the superfecta, will grind you up and spit you out. Believe this from someone who once played full time, 8-12 hours a day, 5-6 days a week, solely on superfectas, "it ain't no picnic".

[hrspwr]

Thank you in advance for taking the time to discuss this at length. I look forward to your posts.

[thaskalos]

Once I deem the race "playable", I proceed to handicap it using my speed/pace figure methodology. I don't skip any of the horses in the race - except the obvious throwouts - because a horse that looks pretty bad to the eye can still figure strongly for one of the minor placings of the super...and usually at a big price.

A "figure" player's job is considerably easier in this regard than an "angle" player's task would be...because the figures can easily be reduced to one "Power Rating" type number, which neatly summarizes a horse's ability, and allows for quick comparison to the rest of the field.

I wish I could tell you that there is a magical way of creating the superfecta wager which would make up for any handicapping deficiences you might have...but that is hardly the case. Ultimately, you will sink or swim in accordance with the validity of your handicapping opinions. If your figures truly represent the ability of the horses in question, then the proper structuring of your bets will help you to succeed. If, on the other hand, your handicapping is based on faulty premises...then you will fail, and the most that proper bet structuring can do for you is to reduce your rate of loss.

It will be easier, I think, if I continue in a question/answer format...where I will anticipate some questions people might have about the superfecta.

What determines whether the race is worthy of a superfecta bet or not?

Two things off hand. The size of the field, and the vulnerability of a strong favorite. If it's a 7 horse field, the bet is very unlikely to produce the sort of payout that I am looking for. The same can be said about a field with a prohibitive favorite, who figures very strongly to either win or place. In this case, other wagers are a much better choice than the superfecta bet would be.

What is the main thing on your mind as you are structuring your superfecta bet?

In the superfecta (as in all exotic wagering) my bet must reflect my true opinion of the race.

Exotic wagering is EXPENSIVE (from a takeout point of view) and I can't afford to carelessly do things like "hitting the ALL button"...hoping to get lucky. I would only consider hitting the all button if I really felt that ALL the horses in the race stood a decent chance of getting in the super...in which case, passing the race would be a much better choice.

Before giving us an actual example of you structuring a superfecta ticket based on your numbers, would you care to explain the process somewhat?

Yes! The structuring of the bet would depend on the player's bankroll. Ideally, two separate tickets should be put together.

One ticket is the BASIC ticket...which is very straight-forward, and is focused on grouping our horses in accordance with our ratings WITHOUT too much fuss about things like "overlays" or false favorites.

The second ticket is our "home run" swing...and here we seek to capitalize on the crowd's wagering mistakes in the race.

You stated in another thread that the superfecta was not a "grind it out" sort of bet, but rather a "swing for the fences". If that is the case...then why make the "basic" ticket at all?

Yes, the superfecta is a swing for the fences...but the player has to make sure that he is still at the PLATE when the fat pitch comes right down the middle.

The basic ticket is not a big money maker for us...but it keeps us in the game until the crowd makes its mistake. Sadly, it doesn't happen as often as we would like.

We have run a little long...do you think that you can come back and show us some examples of you "at work"?

It would be my pleasure. Hopefully, I will have some time late tonight.

[raybo]

Good post thaskalos. I can't disagree too much with anything you've stated, so far. The one thing I have slightly different thoughts on involve the "all" button.

IMO, there are isolated circumstances where it would be, well, stupid to not click the "all" button. The first thing that must be considered is the cost of doing so. The second, pretty close to being 1st, is the possible/probable payout available. There are times, infrequent as they may be, where the public "gives" you a race, and your minimum odds spread is met, whatever that minimum is. In those cases, if you are only adding a horse or 2, on the bottom of the ticket, and you have the race covered, and the crowd has made a serious mistake, in a large pool, then the "all" button in this case is warranted. This opportunity will usually only appear in shorter fields of 7 to 9 horses. Larger fields require too many added horses with the use of the "all" button.

Otherwise, avoid the "all" button like the plague.

[Light]

In 2010, I had a +36% roi playing supers with a 10% hit rate according to TS. So the first thing you would need to understand is your hit rate for your patience. My goal was to narrow the contenders down to 5 horses.The reason for this is because my ticket structure was my top pick over the other 4 horses. Sometimes I would also use my 2nd pick over the other 4. If I only liked 4 horses in a race, I would box them regardless of who I liked better. If I had 6 contenders,it was a pass unless I just wanted action,but I would expect to lose and usually did.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by raybo

IMO, there are isolated circumstances where it would be, well, stupid to not click the "all" button.

Raybo...like I said before. There is more than one way to skin a cat...and the most I can do is reveal how I make the wager.

I have been having success playing the superfecta for years now...and I have NEVER pressed the all button.

If it's "stupid"...so be it! Different strokes for different folks.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Raybo...like I said before. There is more than one way to skin a cat...and the most I can do is reveal how I make the wager.

I have been having success playing the superfecta for years now...and I have NEVER pressed the all button.

If it's "stupid"...so be it! Different strokes for different folks.

Well, I was trying to be nice, while still stating my opinion, but if you're going to egt offended, I'm out of here. Have fun.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by raybo

Well, I was trying to be nice, while still stating my opinion, but if you're going to egt offended, I'm out of here. Have fun.

These are the responses that I don't understand...and they emphasize the reason why it took me so long to decide to do this.

I am not offended in the least Raybo...nor did I intend this thread to be a monologue.

I stated at the very start of this thread that what I say here is sure to be refuted by some who have used different methods while playing the superfecta successfully.

OF COURSE you will not agree with everything I am going to say...that is to be expected. Why would I get offended?

Why would I want you to get "out of here"?

I have been reading your posts for a long time...and I have a lot of respect for your opinion.

[jdhanover]

Interesting thread so far...looking forward to part 3,4...etc!

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by raybo

Well, I was trying to be nice, while still stating my opinion, but if you're going to egt offended, I'm out of here. Have fun.

Yeah, I didn't see where thaskalos got offended either. I think you might be reading into something that isn't there.

With that in mind, let's DEFINITELY NOT go down this road any further. I don't want anything to sidetrack this thread, which means I will delete stuff not directly related to the topic, and that includes any and all personal matters.

[Spiderman]

I play the sfc in a limited manner. This year, played 21 times and hit 3 with an ROI over 200% I see the merit in specializing play in sfc. Since my ADW does not allow less than a .50 cent play, I would need to leave the comfort of home and go to simo center. It is worth the trip if I can continue that sort of return on investment.

I agree with your parameters to formulate a play. My basic ticket format is ab/abc/abcd/abcde. Identifying not more than two as likely winner is the key element in playing the sfc. I never have or ever will, hit the ALL button.

Please continue.

[thaskalos]

I feel that there is a need to take a break from our discussion, in order to address a few things soas to avoid certain disagreements which may arise later on.

I want to start off by saying that this is a very difficult game to beat...and that the only players who haven't realized this are the ones who have not been involved in it for a long enough period of time. Eventually, they too will realize just how hard the game really is.

What I am presenting in our superfecta discussion is only one man's opinion on how this bet can be made for a profit. It is certainly not the ONLY way...nor am I pretending to have all the answers.

The racetrack serves a varied menu...enough to satisfy every appetite...and seldom do two winning players come to complete agreement when it comes to handicapping and betting individual races.

Isolated races should never be viewed as TESTS of our handicapping prowess...where a player is considered to have succeeded or failed depending on their outcome. THE LONG RUN IS WHAT COUNTS!

Case in point:

Just a short time ago, Dahoss put on an amazing handicapping exhibition...in which he placed 110 win wagers, and showed an amazing overall profit.

And yet, given his unorthodox handicapping style, it would be very likely that another winning player - HANDICAPPING THE EXACT SAME 110 RACES - could also show an amazing overall profit...while disagreeing with Dahoss over 90% of the time.

This is how complex our game really is...

Please keep this in mind when you find yourself in disagreement with the superfecta strategies I am about to present.