Superfecta study group

[teddy]

I would like to work with others with large data bases to develop a rebate play for the superfecta. Might be a waste of time but with so much info it might be possible with a large rebate. I know it has been done before but have not had the time to figure it out. Possible there are many things that have not come to mind about which races to play and ticket structure for efficiency. Ideally we can play on paper and try out some elimination techniques in races that we determine are favorable to either high hit rate or high payout but low strike rate. While the 4 horse straight ticket will return the highest roi, it will be a very low hit rate. Narrowing a field of 12 down to 8 contenders and then structuring the ticket correctly is what I hope can make up the takeout and more. With the rebate removed I am hoping to reduce takeout to under 10%

[jdhanover]

I am interested tho, unfortunately cant help on the data side at this point

[teddy]

WELL MY DATA BASE IS HUGE BY MOST STANDARDS... anyone with insight and real interest might keep it going long enough to get somewhere.

[thaskalos]

Forget the data bases...superfecta wagering requires an altogether different handicapping style than what most players seem to possess.

The horses in the field need to be RATED accurately...with some horses being designated for the top spot, the second spot, etc...

Also, handicappers have to be proficient at spotting and eliminating "false" favorites...and they mustn't be afraid to include "price" horses on the TOP SPOT!

Recently - in another superfecta conversation - someone stated that the key to profits in the super appears to be "to spread out" in the third and fourth slot...

NOT TRUE!

The key to profits in the super is to properly construct the FIRST AND SECONG slots!

THIS is where the public is making their biggest mistake!

The vast majority of the bettors consider the super as an add-on to their other wagers in the race...and just throw a few dollars on the bet - using the favorite and maybe the second choice on top. To go any deeper than that makes for a higher priced ticket than what they are comfortable with...given the "gimmicky" nature of the bet.

The wise player understands this...and hunts for spots where the favorites are FALSE. When he finds a false favorite, he doesn't "chicken-out". HE POUNCES!

He spreads out ON TOP...because he knows that - if the top 2 betting choices don't win - the superfecta will pay A LOT more than it should.

And THOSE are the payoffs he relies upon for his profits!

[teddy]

Thanks for the input there. Simply being able to spot the false fav in superfectas makes sense of course it pays great. Especially if the chalk is off the board. From there deciding on how to remove the other horses is of less significance because you are getting overpaid already?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by teddy

Thanks for the input there. Simply being able to spot the false fav in superfectas makes sense of course it pays great. Especially if the chalk is off the board. From there deciding on how to remove the other horses is of less significance because you are getting overpaid already?

You have to have an edge over your competition Teddy...and, with the emergence of the 10-cent super, EVERYBODY spreads out in the third and fourth slots - because it's relatively cheap to do so.

But to spread out in the first and second slots is much costlier...because the price of the ticket increases exponentially.

Don't forget...people are not superfecta specialists...they spend the bulk of their money on the "safer" wagers.

That's why the payoffs of the superfectas explode when the top 2 betting choices fail to win the race...people are reluctant to spread out in the top slot.

OF COURSE it's important to know how to "remove the other horses"...that's why I already said that the accurate RATING of horses is vital.

The superfecta is not a "grind it out" wager: it's a swing for the fences!

To have a good chance at the big payoffs that the 10-cent super offers...you must be willing to do what the majority of the bettors are reluctant to do!

[teddy]

Unless you play supers all year and can write off the losses, then you lose 30 percent on taxes too. The dime is the only thing that saves you with the wager. Playing the dime 4 times makes more sense. Unless you can hit the freak ticket with long shots on top and bottom. That might make you a K on a dime. Maybe in mdn turf or wide open races and full fields. So were back to ticket structure.

!. use non favs on slots 1 and 2.
2. eliminate non contenders from the ticket.
3. start with 2k in your account and play the dime bet to gain skill.
4, Fields of at least 8 horses.


You must get the takeout down to 10%

[teddy]

My inclination is to bet on paper using mdn claiming and turf races. Using the first above ideas. One method put forth was to use the chalk with the top 5 other horses in a part wheel in the top 4 positions. Im thinking about more like

top 5
fav
top 5
all

and top 5
top 5
fav
all

yes its the fav on the ticket in the place and show positions but the mdn andturf races have so hard to handicap that the public is going to miss much more often.

[teddy]

cost chart for the superfecta


The bet Cost of bet on a $1 base
A) 1/234/234/234 $6
B) 1/23/2345/2345 $12
C) 1/234/234/2345 $12
D) 1/234/234/23456 $18
E) 1/23/2345/23456 $18
F) 1/23/2345/234567 $24
G) 1/234/234/234567 $24
H) 1/2345/2345/2345 $24
I) 1/23/2345/2345678 $30
J) 1/234/234/2345678 $30
K) 1/234/234/23456789 $36
L) 1/2345/2345/23456 $36

[teddy]

One of our favorite SUPERFECTA plays is to take our TOP pick over our next 3 picks for 2nd and 3rd and in the 4th slot we put our 2nd pick through our 7th
pick. Like in the race below we played the 8/7,9,13/7,9,13/2,3,4,6,7,9,13. As you can see it gives us 4 extra horses in the 4th slot of the bet. This is
play J) in the chart below the race example. Many times a longshot will finish 4th making the SUPERFECTA pay very well.


SINCE THIS IS A STUDY GROUP, WHY NOT ADD OTHERS OPINIONS. BEFORE SETTLING ON A METHOD TO TRY.

[superfecta]

Race shape is a staple of my method,is the race full of speed or even runners and can the closers finish?
I never punch all on a leg,that just means I dont know whats gonna happen
I cant pick a legit fav.never had that skill.
My strength is picking legit longshots.And I dont bet more than 12 bucks a race,if I have to go deeper than that,I feel I dont have a handle on the race.
And Im willing to live with the results,I never let the "woulda coulda "sway the picks on the next race.Of course I dont cash all the time,but when I do,it shows a healthy return.

[teddy]

After looking at lots of charts the payoffs skyrocket if you can get anything about 15 to one in the second slot. It throws off the logical tickets that are so prominent. the 1- 234 with 234 with all is bet too much and anything long kills all those tickets. I bet if you could look at actual payoffs that the long shot second or first has a higher roi.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Forget the data bases...superfecta wagering requires an altogether different handicapping style than what most players seem to possess.

The horses in the field need to be RATED accurately...with some horses being designated for the top spot, the second spot, etc...

Also, handicappers have to be proficient at spotting and eliminating "false" favorites...and they mustn't be afraid to include "price" horses on the TOP SPOT!

Recently - in another superfecta conversation - someone stated that the key to profits in the super appears to be "to spread out" in the third and fourth slot...

NOT TRUE!

The key to profits in the super is to properly construct the FIRST AND SECONG slots!

THIS is where the public is making their biggest mistake!

The vast majority of the bettors consider the super as an add-on to their other wagers in the race...and just throw a few dollars on the bet - using the favorite and maybe the second choice on top. To go any deeper than that makes for a higher priced ticket than what they are comfortable with...given the "gimmicky" nature of the bet.

The wise player understands this...and hunts for spots where the favorites are FALSE. When he finds a false favorite, he doesn't "chicken-out". HE POUNCES!

He spreads out ON TOP...because he knows that - if the top 2 betting choices don't win - the superfecta will pay A LOT more than it should.

And THOSE are the payoffs he relies upon for his profits!

I'm stating to experience a strange attraction to this wager. I hear you when you say you have to identify races where the favorite is vulnerable, and then you spread on TOP (as opposed to most players who spread the 3rd & 4th slots). But what do YOU do with the 3rd and 4th slots after spreading out on TOP?

Will you explain this in "Part II?"

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I'm stating to experience a strange attraction to this wager. I hear you when you say you have to identify races where the favorite is vulnerable, and then you spread on TOP (as opposed to most players who spread the 3rd & 4th slots). But what do YOU do with the 3rd and 4th slots after spreading out on TOP?

Will you explain this in "Part II?"

Now that I see serious interest, OF COURSE i will explain myself further in "Part Two", PA.

That was my intention all along...and that's why I designated my initial post as "Part One".

I honestly think that the 10-cent super has the capacity to revolutionize the way we play the game. It gives the skillful player an amazing amount of "coverage" for a very modest cost...and it also allows the proper "structuring" of multiple tickets without excessive risk.

All in all, it's the most effective way to fish in the "deep waters" - where the big payoffs are - without risk of drowning ourselves.

Believe me...it has made a WORLD of difference in my play!

I would love to talk at length about the way to properly make this bet - if you will allow me to...

I will have some time later tonight...

[PaceAdvantage]

"If you will allow me to..." WHAT?

OF COURSE I will allow you to...why wouldn't I?

The floor is yours my friend...and I thank you in advance.