What would you want to have done...

[TrifectaMike]

If you had access to a mathematician, an expert horse player, the finances, the desire, and commitment, what type of horse racing selection process would you like to develop?

For example, would you want a Benter Logistic or Probit approach, or a Bayesian Belief Network approach, Jcapper Approach, an actual simulation of the races, an expert system, a genetic algorithm, neural network, etc.

Many may say Benter's approach because of the success in Hong Kong racing, but I'd like to hear your ideas. At some point in this thread I'll give my approach.

Mike (Dr. Beav)

[sjk]

Many years ago there was lots of interest in talking about how to develop handicapping software. These days very few on the board seem to be on that path.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by sjk

Many years ago there was lots of interest in talking about how to develop handicapping software. These days very few on the board seem to be on that path.

If that is true, it is sad.

About a year ago or maybe two years ago, Jeff Platt wrote something in a thread about seeing a professor to get a better understanding on a mathematical concept. At the time, I was shocked that he had considered the approach. It was one of the wisest things I've read on this board.

I don't know if he went any further than just being curious. I'm sure he knows what I am speaking of. If he wants to comment, that is his choice. I will not.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[BIG49010]

I did some programing for a guy, about 10 years ago, that was trying to make the Neural network ideas work. He just couldn't seem to make it work, so it will be interesting to hear your comments.

[Freightliner]

I am working with a statistician and we are working on the theory of really big numbers.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

If you had access to a mathematician, an expert horse player, the finances, the desire, and commitment, what type of horse racing selection process would you like to develop?

For example, would you want a Benter Logistic or Probit approach, or a Bayesian Belief Network approach, Jcapper Approach, an actual simulation of the races, an expert system, a genetic algorithm, neural network, etc.

Many may say Benter's approach because of the success in Hong Kong racing, but I'd like to hear your ideas. At some point in this thread I'll give my approach.

Mike (Dr. Beav)

None of the approaches are attractive to me, but before I give my reason why in a later post I will suggest that you have left out the most important brain, the physicist from your think tank.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

If you had access to a mathematician, an expert horse player, the finances, the desire, and commitment, what type of horse racing selection process would you like to develop?

For example, would you want a Benter Logistic or Probit approach, or a Bayesian Belief Network approach, Jcapper Approach, an actual simulation of the races, an expert system, a genetic algorithm, neural network, etc.

Many may say Benter's approach because of the success in Hong Kong racing, but I'd like to hear your ideas. At some point in this thread I'll give my approach.

Mike (Dr. Beav)

I have everything except the computer nerd to write me a pick 6 program so i can efficiently invest into america's greatest bet.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

If you had access to a mathematician, an expert horse player, the finances, the desire, and commitment, what type of horse racing selection process would you like to develop?

I would request that they spare no expense in order to create a way of constructing an accurate odds line...which would, at last, transform the gambler into an investor...

The late Dick Mitchell - ALSO a mathematician and expert horse player - promised me as much when he sold me a SHARP programmable pocket calculator for $399...25 years ago...but, regrettably, he overestimated the device's effectiveness.

[Freightliner]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The late Dick Mitchell - ALSO a mathematician and expert horse player - promised me as much when he sold me a SHARP programmable pocket calculator for $399...25 years ago...but, regrettably, he overestimated the device's effectiveness.

Does this mean I'm screwed?

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IThe late Dick Mitchell - ALSO a mathematician and expert horse player - promised me as much when he sold me a SHARP programmable pocket calculator for $399...25 years ago...but, regrettably, he overestimated the device's effectiveness.

Mitchell knew his math but he wasn't a mathetmatician.
Regrettably, you overestimated the device's effectiveness when you purchased it, for $399 ...25 years ago...which would be a lot more today.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Mitchell knew his math but he wasn't a mathetmatician.
Regrettably, you overestimated the device's effectiveness when you purchased it, for $399 ...25 years ago...which would be a lot more today.

Greyfox...

If you are going to pick a fight with me...at least make the effort to get your facts straight.

I would like to refer you to the back of Mitchell's book "Commonsense Handicapping"...where the famed handicapping author James Quinn has posted the following quote:

"Only a decade ago, Dick Mitchell was a better MATHEMATICIAN and computer scientist than he was a handicapper. Now he is better-than-good at all three."

It is common knowledge that Dick Michell was indeed a mathematician...and he returned to teaching math toward the end of his life...after his "retirement" from thoroughbred handicapping.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Greyfox...

If you are going to pick a fight with me...at least make the effort to get your facts straight.

.

Geez. Who's picking a fight with you?? Commenting on what you are saying is not "picking a fight."
I thought Mitchell's expertise was Economics.
You are correct. I was wrong. Here is his obituary:
http://www.cynthiapublishing.com/dickmitchell.html

Never the less, you missed the main point I was making.
You thaskalos overestimated the device's effectiveness and paid $399. I wasn't wrong about that.

[PhantomOnTour]

What I really would like is someone with a keen eye in judging t'breds in the flesh to accompany me to the paddock before each race. Just about any trainer will do (and I mean ANY trainer...sat next to one of the worst trainers I've ever seen at FG for a few years. He couldn't train 'em, but he could see which horse was off or sore just by watching them in the paddock. Good info imo)

[thelyingthief]

Originally Posted by Freightliner

I am working with a statistician and we are working on the theory of really big numbers.

wow, I didn't know that really big numbers was a theory. In fact, I can spin off a really big number without theorizing whatsoever.

fer instance: 12312515565756351656998796546161549984977700078411 11000_
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000_
0000000000000000000000006468497897979.

This is a considerably large number. I could have made it larger.

tlt-

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

What I really would like is someone with a keen eye in judging t'breds in the flesh to accompany me to the paddock before each race. Just about any trainer will do (and I mean ANY trainer...sat next to one of the worst trainers I've ever seen at FG for a few years. He couldn't train 'em, but he could see which horse was off or sore just by watching them in the paddock. Good info imo)

The actual warmup on the track will tell you more than a paddock inspection. At least it does for me. If a horse is sore, he won't 'unravel' in the paddock as much as he might unravel with 115 lbs on his back and being aggressively warmed up. Once that jock gets aboard and starts to warmup the horse, you might be able to tell more than if the horse is just standing there calmly being held by a shank.