Derby Longshot

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I think if Solomini ever learned how to break sharply, not get trapped behind horses and change leads in the stretch he'd be a good bet. But what the hell. I'll find a spot for him on a ticket anyway.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

His Sheets numbers are pretty solid. I just hate how he hung in the lone 9F race he ran.

My Boy Jack received perhaps one of the worst rides on the Derby trail. Not only did he launch a ridiculously prolonged 3 (or maybe more) furlong move after losing contact with the field early, but he also was asked to circle the field and go 9-wide into one of the longest stretches in North America. It is no shock that he hung inside in the 1/16th pole.

At the very least, Desormeaux could have tried to thread his way between horses, as he was at least a half a dozen lengths behind the second-to-last horse down the back stretch.

The above may be moot in the end, however, as Desormeaux retains the mount and there is little to stop him doing the exact same thing tomorrow.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

At the very least, Desormeaux could have tried to thread his way between horses, as he was at least a half a dozen lengths behind the second-to-last horse down the back stretch.

The above may be moot in the end, however, as Desormeaux retains the mount and there is little to stop him doing the exact same thing tomorrow.

When was the last time Desormeaux went inside in a large field to pass horses on a closer? Is his age a factor and he just doesn't have the courage to do it anymore?

[keithw84]

Kent loves to move early. Thinking back to Real Quiet in the Belmont.

[BlueChip@DRF]

WTF? My Boy Jack is 2nd choice????

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

WTF? My Boy Jack is 2nd choice????

And, he's by far the first choice in the Place and Show pools as of this writing. If he misses the show pool then you will get paid well playing in it.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

WTF? My Boy Jack is 2nd choice????

Why wouldn't you bet him? He's 30/1 and he's been the most popular closer....
30/1 and may hit the board...
Same connections as Exaggerator.



Sometimes people commit to what they are going to do in these big races.


If he was viewed as 5-1 he'd be less popular. 'Everyone' decided he was an attractive long shot.

In reality he's a bad underlay and merely one of many who have a chance for a belated 3rd/4th.

[Robert Fischer]

Enticed isn't going to beat a Justify 'A' race, but if Justify falters, he has a fair shot.
55-1 and he's the 'sleeper' He doesn't look like a 2nd-tier contender, yet, he is.

high knee action and all...


When you really start to 'reach' for luck with more things that have to happen;
Promises Fulfilled - Not good enough, but if the pace is very forward-favoring he belongs in the superfecta. 47/1

Flameaway - same forward-favoring scenario... 50/1


pace collapse

Solomini - even if he changes leads, he's not good enough, but a good trip puts him in the 3rd-tier and he's 65/1

Instilled Regard - he's likely to finish somewhere between 3rd and 12th. If he runs his normal 'lug-in' it's more like 10th. If he runs like he's been training more like 4th or 3rd.. If Moses parts the pace collapse ... 99/1

[elysiantraveller]

I like Enticed for a piece and will be using Good Magic moving up 3rd back.

I'll be arranging with the Santa Anita duo.

[upthecreek]

Originally Posted by Redboard

I agree with UpTheCreek, although he only beat me here by a couple of minutes.
Derby longshot winners have usually been closers, e.g., Sea Hero, Giacomo, Mine That Bird, so I'm going with 30-1 My Boy Jack who has the highest Late Timeform pace rating in the field.

He'll need help up front, to say the least.

I warned you LOL You were"Creeked"