3-2-1 Betting System by RPM

[pandy]

Glad to see that John is still doing the Tampa Bay Downs handicapper website. I think John (Barile) would agree with me that his trainer angle approach and his overall wagering theory puts a lot focus on longshots.

Longshots give you leverage. You can lose 15 in a row and then hit a 19-1 shot and you have a 25% profit. John mentioned that he makes 40 to 50 bets a meet. If you bet 50 horses and the average odds of your winners is 20-1, you only need 5 winners the entire meet to make a 10% profit.

[John Barile]

That's about right....at the meeting that just ended we had a 20% profit on $10.5K in wagers. Multiple plays clicked for four figures to keep me in the green.
JB

[pandy]

Originally Posted by John Barile

That's about right....at the meeting that just ended we had a 20% profit on $10.5K in wagers. Multiple plays clicked for four figures to keep me in the green.
JB

Perhaps you could offer some advice, based on your many years of experience keying longshots and putting together exotic tickets. What kind of exotic wager do you prefer? What's better, Pick 4's, exactas, ???

[John Barile]

Bob,
I'm not married to a particular routine but...

I like to structure wagers that involve multiple race scenarios (Pick 3,4,5,6) in which a small initial bet could lead to a big payoff in the later races, and then, as each leg unfolds, I make another saver bet in the hopes of still getting a half a loaf or even a quarter of a loaf if things don't go quite as planned.

This past year I bet $50 on a Pick 3, was live to a $3400 ticket after two races and saved with an $800 play that returned $2400 in the last leg.

It can work backwards also. Last year I made a $28 saver P4 up front while my big $228 play didn't come up until the later races and while the big play crashed and burned, the saver clicked for $8450.

Historically, I have had the same or better luck with the savers than the "main" play, but I like to think that all the bets are a part of a single strategy, not necessarily giving more weight to one over the other.

This kind of bet structuring often ends abruptly after leg one (or two), but that's just fine as the early legs have only small investments to begin with.

The author Katcha Goodwon was half right when he said "Bet a little to win alot". One should bet a little to win alot, but once live to a big payout, he must do whatever needs to be done to insure a healthy profit, whether the initial cheap play wins or loses.

JB

[pandy]

Originally Posted by John Barile

Bob,
I'm not married to a particular routine but...

I like to structure wagers that involve multiple race scenarios (Pick 3,4,5,6) in which a small initial bet could lead to a big payoff in the later races, and then, as each leg unfolds, I make another saver bet in the hopes of still getting a half a loaf or even a quarter of a loaf if things don't go quite as planned.

This past year I bet $50 on a Pick 3, was live to a $3400 ticket after two races and saved with an $800 play that returned $2400 in the last leg.

It can work backwards also. Last year I made a $28 saver P4 up front while my big $228 play didn't come up until the later races and while the big play crashed and burned, the saver clicked for $8450.

Historically, I have had the same or better luck with the savers than the "main" play, but I like to think that all the bets are a part of a single strategy, not necessarily giving more weight to one over the other.

This kind of bet structuring often ends abruptly after leg one (or two), but that's just fine as the early legs have only small investments to begin with.

The author Katcha Goodwon was half right when he said "Bet a little to win alot". One should bet a little to win alot, but once live to a big payout, he must do whatever needs to be done to insure a healthy profit, whether the initial cheap play wins or loses.

JB

Thanks John. I rarely use hedge bets when I'm alive in the last leg of a multi race wager but I find that strategy interesting.

[aaron]

Originally Posted by pandy

Thanks John. I rarely use hedge bets when I'm alive in the last leg of a multi race wager but I find that strategy interesting.

I once spent a day at the Race Palace with John and some of the stuff he uses is brilliant. John is from a short line of terrific NY handicappers who have the knowledge players can benefit from.

[castaway01]

I want to emphasize again that I have tremendous respect for John, he's great. Since we were talking about "angles" and "systems" here, John doesn't do a "system". Instead, he works HARD on finding and playing these obscure angles, all focused on one track. My only point was that if you're playing big longshots regularly, you can't miss a day because not many come in. You have to play it like John does.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by castaway01

I want to emphasize again that I have tremendous respect for John, he's great. Since we were talking about "angles" and "systems" here, John doesn't do a "system". Instead, he works HARD on finding and playing these obscure angles, all focused on one track. My only point was that if you're playing big longshots regularly, you can't miss a day because not many come in. You have to play it like John does.

That's a good point. If you miss one that makes a big difference in the ROI

[John Barile]

Hello again Aaron and thanks for the plug. It's great to know that my methods have resonated with you and others.

Castaway01 gets a big shout out. More than anyone else, he gets the effort and energy that must be expended by me each day to come up with these bombs.

I always say, if I could buy what I sell, I would quit selling and start buying forthwith...

Best luck to all and thanks again!

JB

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by pandy

I know someone who paid jockeys and trainers for "inside information" in New York years ago and literally lost $400,000, which was almost every penny he'd ever made.

If trainers knew who was going to win, there would be a lot less trainers who are going broke.

Well, I've heard of this guy named Pittsburgh Phil who paid jockeys to try every race, and that worked out for him. I guess it's how the "inside information" is applied that counts.

I've known a few guys that made profits from betting just on inside information, but I'm not sure you'd even call them horseplayers. Duplicating the leading jockey's win bets or playing just the tips from an assistant trainer are not what I would call handicapping.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Well, I've heard of this guy named Pittsburgh Phil who paid jockeys to try every race, and that worked out for him. I guess it's how the "inside information" is applied that counts.

I've known a few guys that made profits from betting just on inside information, but I'm not sure you'd even call them horseplayers. Duplicating the leading jockey's win bets or playing just the tips from an assistant trainer are not what I would call handicapping.

Pittsburgh Phil died in 1905.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Pittsburgh Phil died in 1905.

So?? What's your point?

He could have very well died yesterday because many of his Axioms are just as valid today as they were over 100 years ago. In fact, if anyone should bother reading them in their entirety, they just might discover how many of the more recent handicapping authors plagiarized some of his timeless material.

I find it very interesting that both he and Bill Benter are from the same area. What an interesting conversation they might have had especially when it comes to insider information.
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[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Well, I've heard of this guy named Pittsburgh Phil who paid jockeys to try every race, and that worked out for him. I guess it's how the "inside information" is applied that counts.

I've known a few guys that made profits from betting just on inside information, but I'm not sure you'd even call them horseplayers. Duplicating the leading jockey's win bets or playing just the tips from an assistant trainer are not what I would call handicapping.

Who said that a person has to be stereotyped as "horseplayer" or a "handicapper" to want to enjoy the potential rewards of just winning some money at this game. I know quite a few people who have already asked me to join them a Saratoga who are neither, but they certainly enjoy the races!
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