Thaskalos on the 10-cent super...EXPANDED EDITION!

[PaceAdvantage]

Thaskalos, consider the floor yours. There will be no further petty distractions.

[thaskalos]

Thaskalos, before we delve into the specifics of constructing our 10-cent superfecta tickets, take a few minutes to tell us why you are so excited about this wager.

IMO...a wager is only as good as its risk/reward ratio...and no bet can rival the 10-cent super in this regard.

When I first started playing the 10-cent super, I was a WIN bettor...and I used the super as a hedging technique, trying to improve my chances of winning in those races where my win bets failed to deliver.

I had two favorite combinations:

AB/ABCD/ABCDE/ABCDEFG...and ABC/ABCD/ABCDE/ABCDEF.

Even without any experience in this wager, I cashed so many tickets in the $100-$250 (for a dime) range, that before long, my win bets were relegated to the background...and most of my time and effort was spent on how to become as proficient as I could at the superfecta.

As an example, take a look at this superfecta combination:

ABC/ABCD/ABCDE/ABCDEFG

The discriminating exotics bettor frowns at a sequence like this. He compares the super with other exotic bets like the exacta or the trifecta...and thinks that a "top-heavy" combination such as this is too wasteful and imprecise to be of any use in the long run.

HE IS DEAD WRONG!

The superfecta is so different from the other exotic wagers, that all the pre-existing exotic betting guidelines can be thrown right out the window.

The combination above costs $10.80 for a dime. It provides an amazing amount of coverage for the price...and I often use it in full-field, contentious races...where I sometimes get back as much as $900 for my $10.80 investment. Not long ago...I used this superfecta sequence to collect a $1,100 (for a dime) payoff at Penn National. That's a 100-1 return! Enough to pay for my next 100 losing superfecta wagers of this type.

Are these returns commonplace? OF COURSE NOT...but they are possible!

Find me another bet with the same profit potential - and the same amount of risk - and I might change my opinion about the super.

What makes the superfecta pay so much?

The vast majority of the betting public is not serious about this wager...it seems too "gimmicky" to them. They reserve most of their money for the more "responsible" bets. When they play the super, they throw a little money at the bet - and refuse to use more than their top 2 picks on top. Certain races are too contentious for that. They might require something like this:

ABCD/ABCD/ABCDE/ABCDEF...total cost...$10.80!

That's why the superfectas pay so much more than they should when horses in the 6-1 to 10-1 range win their races. Even the "sharp" players make mistakes in the placing of their superfecta bets. They are reluctant to spread out sufficiently on top...because they underestimate the difficulty of picking the winner and the second place horses...while overestimating the difficulty of picking the third and fourth place horses.

Worry more about the top 2 spots of this bet than you do about the lower two spots...and the generous payoffs you will collect will more than pay for your "mistakes" in the third and fourth slot.

How do you decide on what combination to play in a race?

Like I stated before, I often construct 2 separate tickets...each with a different philosophy in mind.

My BASIC ticket is pretty straight forward...and closely reflects my opinion on the race. My numbers tell me how the race shapes up...and I bet accordingly.

If my numbers show that 2 horses have separated themselves from the rest of the field abilitywise...then by basic combination might look like this:

AB/ABCD/ABCDE/ABCDEF

Or this:

AB/ABCDE/ABCDE/ABCDEF

In the event that the race features a standout bet...my superfecta strategy adjusts to reflect this new scenario. It might now look like this:

A/BCD/BCDE/BCDEF plus BCD/A/BCDE/BCDEF

This is the great advantage of the 10-cent superfecta...it allows the player a great deal of flexibility for a small price. The bet can easily be made to fit the differing circumstances of each race.

My second ticket is more "value oriented". It relies heavily on betting mistakes made by the wagering public...either in overestimating the winning chances of a "false" favorite, or underestimating the chances of one or more of the horses which I consider contenders.

The theory behind the second ticket is this:

When the public makes what I consider to be a serious mistake, then the profit potential for me is higher...and it warrants the additional investment in order to try and take advantage of this mistake.

Let's say that the crowd has made a given horse the 2-1 favorite, but my opinion of this race is that the race is a toss-up between 4 horses...and 2 of these other 3 horses are pretty much ignored by the public.

The contentious nature of this race might initially have me leaning towards passing the race...but now, the unwarranted support on the 2-1 favorite, and the longshot prices on 2 of my 4 contenders, have restored my interest in this race...and my bet might look like this:

ABCD/ABCD/ABCDE/ABCDEF...again $10.80.

Remember...the more our opinion coincides with that of the betting public's...the less our advantage...and the smaller our bet.

The more our opinion DIFFERS from that of the public's...the bigger our advantage...so we increase our total bet outlay by bringing our second ticket into play.

Of course we always play within our bankroll...that goes without saying.

Thaskalos...we seem to have run out of time again. Promise us that you will be back to discuss this a little further with us.

There is no place I would rather be...

[Fastracehorse]

.....you said these returns are "not commonplace."
I agree that when U have a good feel for a race they are a good wager but are soups really the bet w/ the best profit potential?

Hmmm, something to ponder.

Are soups on par w/ the p-4 ( just being a vertical representation )? Soups are .10; some p-4's .50 - does the lower accessibility of the p-4 make it a better return?

fffastt

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Fastracehorse

.....you said these returns are "not commonplace."
I agree that when U have a good feel for a race they are a good wager but are soups really the bet w/ the best profit potential?

Hmmm, something to ponder.

Are soups on par w/ the p-4 ( just being a vertical representation )? Soups are .10; some p-4's .50 - does the lower accessibility of the p-4 make it a better return?

fffastt

I like the pick-4...but the super is a better fit for my handicapping style.

My handicapping strength is in rating a field of horses top to bottom...and that's where I feel I have the best chance of exploiting the public's mistakes. A "live" longshot is useless in the pick-4 unless it wins...but in the super, it could lose and still trigger a big payoff.

Plus, I seldom find 4 consecutive races in which I have a decent handicapping opinion...and I hate to bet races that I don't like.

In the super...I can pick and choose the races that I like.

[superfecta]

Good stuff.Ive always said with proper bet structure the super was a great bet.With only a little handicapping and a 2.40 bet ,my mom and son snagged a 4k payoff.Now shes hooked.

[teddy]

First, i love this format. Hilarious. The other major superfecta brains on here go for a much smaller ticket and a larger denomination. It will be interesting to see how the return changes with the larger ticket. More money in a contentious race would be an advantage and the smaller ticket in the more obvious races makes sense too. I usually play the .20 or .30 tickets. Spreading in mdn routes where the public has no clue has always been good for me. But some think they dont yield enough info to make a decision. Yes its a hunch many times when you bet a horse off one dirt sprint, now going a route on the grass. But thats why the public makes him 20=1 versus anything that plodded around on the turf once.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by teddy

First, i love this format. Hilarious. The other major superfecta brains on here go for a much smaller ticket and a larger denomination. It will be interesting to see how the return changes with the larger ticket. More money in a contentious race would be an advantage and the smaller ticket in the more obvious races makes sense too. I usually play the .20 or .30 tickets. Spreading in mdn routes where the public has no clue has always been good for me. But some think they dont yield enough info to make a decision. Yes its a hunch many times when you bet a horse off one dirt sprint, now going a route on the grass. But thats why the public makes him 20=1 versus anything that plodded around on the turf once.

I play for a "larger denomination" too Teddy...I just do it a dime at a time and I press the "repeat" button.

I don't bet only $10.80 on a race...I am only using this number for clarity's sake.

I press the "repeat" button so many times...that I might be one of the guys that the superfecta "bigshots" of this site are complaining about...when they are stuck waiting behind us at the automated teller machines.

[dav4463]

Is there a list of tracks that offer the dime super?

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I like the pick-4...but the super is a better fit for my handicapping style.

My handicapping strength is in rating a field of horses top to bottom...and that's where I feel I have the best chance of exploiting the public's mistakes. A "live" longshot is useless in the pick-4 unless it wins...but in the super, it could lose and still trigger a big payoff.

Plus, I seldom find 4 consecutive races in which I have a decent handicapping opinion...and I hate to bet races that I don't like.

In the super...I can pick and choose the races that I like.

.......horse quite often. And you only give yourself 5 or 6 choices ( something is gonna blow you up quite often )

you are right about if the lonshot doesn't win in the p-4; but if it does....

you are right if the longshot comes 2nd or 3rd; it would b nice to exploit it; but you could still miss the super and waste the longshot; it's worth a try though but I would try and exploit it w/ other bets too

eg.: w/p, x, in third place of the tri; in fourth place of the super

fffastt

[Dahoss9698]

Good stuff so far. As someone who rarely if ever plays supers, I'm at least seeing the thought process behind another perspective on betting, which is always a good thing.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Fastracehorse

.......horse quite often. And you only give yourself 5 or 6 choices ( something is gonna blow you up quite often )

I don't only give myself 5 or 6 choices in the fourth slot...not in all cases. I let the make-up of the race -- and my numbers -- decide that for me.

Nor do I use the same 2 or 3 superfecta sequences in all these different cases.

There are MANY different combinations that I can use...and I try to match the combination to the circumstances of the race.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Good stuff so far. As someone who rarely if ever plays supers, I'm at least seeing the thought process behind another perspective on betting, which is always a good thing.

That's why I decided to spend this much time explaining this stuff...

The thought process behind it is easily as important as the act of betting itself...

[rwwupl]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Thaskalos, consider the floor yours. There will be no further petty distractions.

Thaskalos,

Good thread,thanks for sharing your thoughts on the low cost super.

rw

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by rwwupl

Thaskalos,

Good thread,thanks for sharing your thoughts on the low cost super.

rw

I appreciate the kind words from everyone...and I also welcome any criticism or questions you guys might have.

I am hoping that this discussion will pursuade other skilled players to come forth and share THEIR thoughts on the various handicapping and betting topics pertaining to this fascinating game.

This is the best forum of its type on the internet...and we should all endeavor to KEEP in that way.

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by dav4463

Is there a list of tracks that offer the dime super?

HANA list at

http://www.horseplayersassociation.o...kname2010.html

Or if you want to come over to the Dark Side....

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=83231


Great thread thaskalos...