New Horse Player Question

[FreeExperience]

Hi Everyone

As of Friday, I can no longer play poker online. I've thought that playing live at a casino would be fun, but the one nearest to me is roughly 2 hours away.

BUT, there's an Off Tracking Betting spot about 10 minutes from me and it's decently nice inside to get me thinking twice about betting on horses.

In the past I've bet on sports online until that was made illegal, than poker online until that was made illegal. I understand odds when it comes to sports other than horses, and I'm looking to the experienced bettor's here for help in clearing things up for me.

My main question is how the payout's work. I'm going to use Roulette as an example.

Betting on the First 12 gives a payout of 2:1, so I would win 2 Bets along with my original bet for a total of 3 Bets in return.

On the form for the horses, I see things like this;

4-1, 5-1, 8-1, 5-2, 9-2, etc...

So my question is, for one of these bets, what exactly is the payout? I'll use 4-1 as an example so you can see what I'm thinking;

1) 4-1 = 4 Bets profit + Original Bet in Return, for a Total of 5 Bets

OR

2) 4-1 = 4 Bets in Return for a total of 4 Bets

Thank you for any help that you can offer. This, like my previous adventures before, is very exciting.

[SchagFactorToWin]

The first one.

$2 is your base bet. So when you make a $2 bet to Win at 4-1, you put $2 in, get $10 back.

[ceejay]

You do realize that the payoffs are not fixed-price? You can place a bet when the odds are 4-1, but by the time the race goes off actual pari-mutuel odds can – and probably will – be different. In That respect this seems similar to poker (which I have never played more than casually), where the perception of your opponents becomes important.

[FreeExperience]

Originally Posted by ceejay

You do realize that the payoffs are not fixed-price? You can place a bet when the odds are 4-1, but by the time the race goes off actual pari-mutuel odds can – and probably will – be different.

I didn't realize that the odds could change in between placing your bet and the race going off. What kinds of differences have you experienced with changing odds? Have you dealt with any extremes before? What kind of a changes should I expect on a typical day?

[precocity]

Originally Posted by FreeExperience

I didn't realize that the odds could change in between placing your bet and the race going off. What kinds of differences have you experienced with changing odds? Have you dealt with any extremes before? What kind of a changes should I expect on a typical day?

bet on a horse at fair grounds was a 7-2 with 3 min to go off before he went into the gate he was a 9-5....and he won....

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by FreeExperience

What kinds of differences have you experienced with changing odds? Have you dealt with any extremes before? What kind of a changes should I expect on a typical day?

It really takes experience to develop a feeling for odds change. I would say typically favorites move to shorter odds and longshots become longer. I have made bets at 8-1 that have paid 15-1 or more– although I have had it go the other way. I rarely (in fact, I'll say I never) play favorites in the win pool (it's just not my strength) but I have seen 7-5 at 1 min. to post go off at 4-5 or less.

[JustRalph]

how can this thread be real. I was convinced in another thread that poker players won't move to horse racing

[Sandysix]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

how can this thread be real. I was convinced in another thread that poker players won't move to horse racing

I trade forex they are in the forums there also asking questions.All i can say is welcome and goodluck with your new endeavor!

[Ray2000]

FreeExperience


Every Marketing Manager at every Race Track in North America should be "Private Messaging" you with free gifts and offers to find out why the change in interest from on line Poker to Horse Racing.


I'm curious if it has anything to do with the recent scandals?


http://www.businessinsider.com/onlin...s-fraud-2011-4

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by FreeExperience

I didn't realize that the odds could change in between placing your bet and the race going off. What kinds of differences have you experienced with changing odds? Have you dealt with any extremes before? What kind of a changes should I expect on a typical day?

The bigger the track (ie Nyra, South Cal), the more money the win pool should have and the more money it will take to move the odds, but remember a high percentage (50% maybe?) comes in during the last two minutes. When playing small tracks, expect the odds to change cause it doesn't take much to move the odds.

[FreeExperience]

Originally Posted by ceejay

It really takes experience to develop a feeling for odds change. I would say typically favorites move to shorter odds and longshots become longer. I have made bets at 8-1 that have paid 15-1 or more– although I have had it go the other way. I rarely (in fact, I'll say I never) play favorites in the win pool (it's just not my strength) but I have seen 7-5 at 1 min. to post go off at 4-5 or less.

Is there somewhere that I can learn strategies to counteract any negative effect that the odds change will have on making bets that will show a profit?

Originally I thought that horse betting was just like betting an NFL game, where if you place a bet with a +6 Point Spread, than even when it changes, you bet stands on the +6. Figuring out the fluctuations with the variable odds seems do-able and exciting.

Originally Posted by JustRalph

how can this thread be real. I was convinced in another thread that poker players won't move to horse racing

The ones who have the will to succeed will adapt to any new change. I've had to do it before, and I'm sure it will happen again.

Originally Posted by Ray2000

FreeExperience


Every Marketing Manager at every Race Track in North America should be "Private Messaging" you with free gifts and offers to find out why the change in interest from on line Poker to Horse Racing.


I'm curious if it has anything to do with the recent scandals?


http://www.businessinsider.com/onlin...s-fraud-2011-4

That's the reason. Everyone's account is frozen, and no one can play, cash in, or cash out.

How does the management handle new bettor's like me? The free gifts and offer's sounds like casino comp's. Is that right idea or is it different with Horse Betting?

Originally Posted by Some_One

The bigger the track (ie Nyra, South Cal), the more money the win pool should have and the more money it will take to move the odds, but remember a high percentage (50% maybe?) comes in during the last two minutes. When playing small tracks, expect the odds to change cause it doesn't take much to move the odds.

This is really incredible how the odds can shift so quickly and effect so many bets at the same time. Is there a reason that so many bettor's wait until the last minutes to place their bets?

***

How honest is the business of Horse Racing and Betting? In online poker there have been scandal's where operator's / programmer's have used the information to their advantage and stolen a lot of money from honest player's.

[Freightliner]

Originally Posted by FreeExperience

This is really incredible how the odds can shift so quickly and effect so many bets at the same time. Is there a reason that so many bettor's wait until the last minutes to place their bets?

Yes. It's called "underlay". There are several different types of people who gamble on horses and they use many different handicapping strategies.
I like to bet the horses, but I have a day job. I place my bets online or at the OTB parlor before I go to work. My bets are in the pool early. There are many people like me who place their bets long before the race starts.

Other bettors have the luxury of waiting until just before post time before placing thier bets. Many of those bettors have systems where they pridict the horse's odd of winning. If those bettors encounter a horse going off at higher odds than they have calculated, they will place a wager on that horse just before post time.

For example, imagine that I use my formula and determine that I will bet on "Governor's Gun" in the fith race at Belmont. My bet goes in and I leave for work.

Later, another bettor does his calculations and determines that "Governor's Gun" (GG) should go off at 3-2 odds. At five minutes to post, GG is listed as 6-1 to win. This is a potential underlay situation for this gambler. He has the potential to get considerably better odds than than the 3-2 he calculated.
The gambler will keep an eye on this race and bet on this race with less than 2 minutes before the race starts IF AND ONLY IF the underlay is still available.
If many dollars flow to GG in the last minute or two, then the odds on all of the horses will change.

The only way to mitigate this effect is to only wager at tracks with large cash handles.

[Ray2000]

FreeExperience,

Thanks for the answer and I apologize for hi-jacking the thread topic. I know you were inquiring about understanding the Tote Board.

It's just that this sport, T-Bred and Harness, is suffering from declining numbers of players and I think Track Management people should take notice of the opportunity of offering (advertising) a skill game to a disenfranchised group of players.


Freightliner

Overlay is the term for under bet horses, ...getting higher odds than expected.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by FreeExperience

This is really incredible how the odds can shift so quickly and effect so many bets at the same time. Is there a reason that so many bettor's wait until the last minutes to place their bets?

***

How honest is the business of Horse Racing and Betting? In online poker there have been scandal's where operator's / programmer's have used the information to their advantage and stolen a lot of money from honest player's.

Well it is all about value, as a poker player, you know flipping with kk vs someone's aa is not good (as you're a 80/20 dog), well if I have a horse fair value at 33% to win or 2-1, then I want to play the horse at 3-1 or higher and not play him, otherwise, especially if he was 1-1 for example, to me that would be negative EV. Again, because so many people wait till the end to place their bets, a lot of money comes in and it can drop a horse (or lift a horse)'s odds easily.

In terms of honesty, you'll quickly learn how some horses first race with new certain trainers can go from a cheap claimer to the 2nd coming of Secretariat. The sport is trying to get better, but it's a process and won't happen overnight.

[superfecta]

Just as an aside free,have you read any books on handicapping?
you would need to understand the basics to choosing a horse before worrying about how much it pays.
And as a real debby downer,as Ive been reading about the online poker scandal,all the players are complaining about their money being held.Is it really their money if it was earned doing an illegal activity?Horseracing is legal,but I cant bet with a bookie on it legally.
If my bookie gets popped by the feds,and all his cash is seized,can I really expect to get my winning ticket cashed?ever?
I wish online poker was legal,but its not.so I cant see how these guys got a leg to stand on.legally.
Sorry for the hijack.